Article
GEOPHYSICAL MONOGRAPH SERIES, VOL. 147, PP. 189-211, 2004
Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a natural ocean—atmosphere coupled mode that plays important roles in seasonal and interannual
climate variations. The coupled mode locked to boreal summer and fall is distinguished as a dipole in the SST anomalies that
are coupled to zonal winds. The equatorial winds reverse their direction from westerlies to easterlies during the peak phase
of the positive IOD events when SST is cool in the east and warm in the west. In response to changes in the wind, the thermocline
rises in the east and subsides in the west. Subsurface equatorial long Rossby waves play a major role in strengthening SST
anomalies in (he central and western parts. The SINTEX-F1 coupled model results support the observational finding that these
equatorial Rossby waves are coupled to the surface wind forcing associated with IOD rather than ENSO. The ENSO influence is
only distinct in off-equatorial latitudes south of 10°S. Although IOD events dominate the ocean—atmosphere variability during
its evolution, their less frequent occurrence compared to ENSO events leads the mode to the second seat in the interannual
variability. Therefore, it is necessary to remove the most dominant uniform mode to capture the IOD statistically. The seasonally
stratified correlation between the indices of IOD and ENSO peaks at 0.53 in September—November. This means that only one third
of IOD events are associated with ENSO events. Since a large number of IOD events are not associated with ENSO events, the
independent nature of IOD is examined using partial correlation and pure composite techniques. Through changes in atmospheric
circulation and water vapor transport, a positive IOD event causes drought in Indonesia, above normal rainfall in Africa,
India, Bangladesh and Vietnam, and dry as well as hot summer in Europe, Japan, Korea and East China. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the positive IOD causes dry winter in Australia, and dry as well as warm conditions in Brazil. The identification of IOD events
has raised a new possibility to make a real advance in the predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variations that
originate in the tropics.
Citation: Yamagata, T.,
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