GEOPHYSICAL MONOGRAPH SERIES, VOL. 196, PP. 27-39, 2012
Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability Development
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
The evolution of cases of development of instability occurring in different systems is believed to obey the universal scenarios.
The occurrence of a strong earthquake is ordinarily treated as a typical example of instability development. But, in comparison
with a majority of other systems prone to instability, the case of strong earthquake occurrence permits the use of more detailed
statistical examination because of a substantial number of strong earthquakes occurring throughout the world. The Harvard
seismic moment and U.S. Geological Survey/National Earthquake Information Center catalogs were used to construct a generalized
space-time vicinity of strong earthquakes (SEGV) and to investigate the seismicity behavior in SEGV. As a result of this investigation,
a few anomalies (besides the expected foreshock and aftershock cascades) were found. Both foreshock and aftershock anomalies
increase at the time of approaching the moment of the generalized main shock as a logarithm of the time interval remaining
before the main shock occurrence. The anomalies revealed agree with general scenarios of development of instability. Some
of these anomalies relevant to the effect of the critical slowing down are discussed in more detail.
Citation: Rodkin, M. V. (2012), Patterns of seismicity found in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake: Agreement with common scenarios of instability
development, in Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 196, edited by