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Geophysical Monograph Series

 

Keywords

  • earthquake prognosis
  • critical behavior
  • critical slowing-down effect
  • precursor phenomena
  • general vicinity of strong event
  • statistics

Index Terms

  • 7223 Seismology: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction
  • 7209 Seismology: Earthquake dynamics
  • 3245 Mathematical Geophysics: Probabilistic forecasting
  • 4415 Nonlinear Geophysics: Cascades

Article

GEOPHYSICAL MONOGRAPH SERIES, VOL. 196, PP. 27-39, 2012

Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability Development

M. V. Rodkin

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia


The evolution of cases of development of instability occurring in different systems is believed to obey the universal scenarios. The occurrence of a strong earthquake is ordinarily treated as a typical example of instability development. But, in comparison with a majority of other systems prone to instability, the case of strong earthquake occurrence permits the use of more detailed statistical examination because of a substantial number of strong earthquakes occurring throughout the world. The Harvard seismic moment and U.S. Geological Survey/National Earthquake Information Center catalogs were used to construct a generalized space-time vicinity of strong earthquakes (SEGV) and to investigate the seismicity behavior in SEGV. As a result of this investigation, a few anomalies (besides the expected foreshock and aftershock cascades) were found. Both foreshock and aftershock anomalies increase at the time of approaching the moment of the generalized main shock as a logarithm of the time interval remaining before the main shock occurrence. The anomalies revealed agree with general scenarios of development of instability. Some of these anomalies relevant to the effect of the critical slowing down are discussed in more detail.

Citation: Rodkin, M. V. (2012), Patterns of seismicity found in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake: Agreement with common scenarios of instability development, in Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 196, edited by A. S. Sharma et al. 27–39, AGU, Washington, D. C., doi:10.1029/2011GM001060.

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