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Geophysical Monograph Series

 

Keywords

  • long-term memory
  • trend detection
  • scaling
  • climate variability
  • climate change
  • global warming

Index Terms

  • 1616 Global Change: Climate variability
  • 3235 Mathematical Geophysics: Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering
  • 3270 Mathematical Geophysics: Time series analysis
  • 1637 Global Change: Regional climate change

Article

GEOPHYSICAL MONOGRAPH SERIES, VOL. 196, PP. 177-189, 2012

On the Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Trends in Climate Records

S. Lennartz


A. Bunde

Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Justus-Liebig-Universität Giessen, Giessen, Germany


This chapter focuses on data that exhibit long-term memory and, in addition, may be influenced by external deterministic trends. Examples for data with long-term memory are temperature and river runoff records, and deterministic trends may be caused by the increased emissions of greenhouse gases or increased urbanization, leading to global or urban warming. We show how long-term correlations can be quantified in the presence of external trends and to which extent external (approximately linear) trends can be detected in the presence of long-term memory.

Citation: Lennartz, S., and A. Bunde (2012), On the estimation of natural and anthropogenic trends in climate records, in Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 196, edited by A. S. Sharma et al. 177–189, AGU, Washington, D. C., doi:10.1029/2011GM001079.

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