AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

More intense solar activity expected

Sunspot activity, which cycles about every 11 years, correlates with the intensity of solar radiation: A large number of sunspots indicates a brighter Sun. Past research has used data from the past solar cycle to predict properties of the upcoming solar cycle. Dikpati et al. (2006) refined this idea through a dynamo-based method, where polar fields of the previous three cycles combine and are sheared by solar differential rotation to produce fields of the new cycle. The authors showed that their new approach correctly and independently described the relative peaks of the last eight solar cycles, and they expect that the next solar cycle will have a 30–50% higher peak than the current cycle, in contrast to other recent predictions that instead used a precursor method to predict solar activity. With this forecasting technique, the authors note that solar flares and solar storms potentially will be more accurately anticipated, helping to mitigate adverse effects to power grids, satellite systems, and future space missions.

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