AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

Earthquakes on the southern San Andreas may cause strong shaking in Los Angeles

The southernmost segments of the San Andreas Fault have a high probability of rupturing in the next few decades with an earthquake of a magnitude greater than 7.5. Olsen et al. (2006) simulated shaking in an area from northern Santa Barbara County down to northern Mexico using a model, called TeraShake, with high spatial resolution. These simulations showed that the chain of sedimentary basins between the city of San Bernardino and downtown Los Angeles form an effective waveguide that channels surface (Love) waves along the southern edge of the San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountains for earthquake scenarios with northward rupture. The authors showed that such earthquakes could produce unusually high long-period ground motions over much of the greater Los Angeles basin for several minutes, including intense and localized amplification of the seismic energy. The authors pointed out that future simulations should take into account the critical role of sedimentary basins in the southern San Andreas region to accurately estimate the seismic hazards.

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