AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

Statistical causality tests provide evidence that climate change has increased hurricane intensity

Atlantic tropical cyclones are increasing in intensity, a trend that has been previously correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea surface temperature over the North Atlantic. Some studies attribute increases in hurricane intensity to a natural climate fluctuation known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; others suggest that climate change related to anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions is the cause. Noting that the only difference between these two hypotheses is the causal connection between global mean near-surface air temperature (GT) and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), Elsner (2006) analyzed GT, SST, and hurricane power dissipation data taken over the past 50 years. Using statistical causality tests, which determine whether time series values of one variable can predict future values of another variable, Elsner showed that GT is useful in predicting Atlantic SST. SST, however, is not useful in predicting GT. Thus GT "causes" SST, supporting the hypothesis that climate change influences hurricane intensity. He inferred that future hurricane hazard mitigation efforts should reflect that hurricane damage will continue to increase, in part, due to greenhouse warming.

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