AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

Estimating local tsunami wave height from great earthquakes

The massive 9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that propagated throughout the Indian Ocean, killing more than 250,000 people. By contrast, the nearby 8.7 Simeulue-Nias earthquake on 28 March 2005 generated a small tsunami that caused only a few casualties. Though these earthquakes occurred in similar tectonic settings, their tsunamis were markedly different, highlighting the need for reliably determining tsunami hazards from earthquake geometry. Using geodetic and stress accumulation studies, McCloskey et al. (2007) modeled about 100 different complex earthquake ruptures in this area and calculated their seafloor displacements and resulting tsunami wave heights. They found that for locations close to the earthquake source, the timing of tsunami inundation is independent of the earthquake magnitude and slip distribution. Further, the maximum tsunami wave height is directly proportional to the vertical displacement of the rupture. Because stress field studies indicate the Sumatra-Andaman region is overdue for another great earthquake, the authors note that a single estimate of vertical displacement during an earthquake might provide a reliable short-term forecast of tsunami wave height.

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