AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

Predicting the dynamics of the Indian Ocean dipole: Case study of 2006 and 2007

The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is an air-sea coupled climate oscillation. In a positive IOD phase, greater-than-average sea surface temperatures and precipitation occur around the western Indian Ocean and southern India, and waters cool in the eastern Indian Ocean causing drought conditions in Indonesia and Australia. Opposite conditions occur in a negative phase. Although most research synchronizes IOD patterns with El Niño oscillations in the Pacific Ocean, in both 2006 and 2007 during fall in the Northern Hemisphere two consecutive positive IOD events occurred, one during an El Niño condition and the other during a La Niña condition. Luo et al. (2008) found that forecasts using a coupled model could have predicted these IOD phases three to four seasons in advance, although the model did not predict the weaker 2007 positive IOD event very strongly. Further analysis revealed that seasonal climate anomalies in the Eastern Hemisphere associated with the two positive IOD events can be predicted one or two seasons ahead, implying that published IOD predictions could help societies better prepare for potential adverse weather.

View abstract

View full article (Subscription required)