AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Editors' Highlight

Permafrost health linked to rapid sea ice loss

Climate models and observational evidence suggest that Arctic sea ice may undergo abrupt periods of loss during the next 50 years. To study how this influences permafrost degradation, Lawrence et al. (2008) evaluated how rapid sea ice loss affects terrestrial Arctic climate and ground thermal state using the Community Climate System Model developed by the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The authors found that simulated western Arctic land warming trends during 5- to 10-year-long rapid sea ice loss periods are 3.5 times greater than the longer-term projected 21st-century Arctic warming rates. This accelerated warming signal penetrates up to 1500 km inland and is apparent throughout most of the year, peaking in autumn. Using NCAR's Community Land Model, with improved permafrost dynamics, revealed that an accelerated warming period substantially increases ground heat accumulation, which leads to rapid degradation of surface permafrost and may increase the vulnerability to degradation of colder permafrost layers at depth. Taken together, these results imply a link between rapid sea ice loss and permafrost health.

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