Scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions. One group of authors stresses that concepts of reductionism and emergence will aid policy makers by helping to illuminate some uncertainties. Another group of authors questions whether better predictions, if even attainable, are needed; they argue instead that resources might be better spent in helping society adapt to the likely spectrum of climate-induced outcomes.

As published in Eos:

Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? By S. Dessai et al.

Predicting Climate Change: Lessons From Reductionism, Emergence, and the Past By S. Harrison and D. Stainforth

A group of 26 early career atmospheric scientists suggests that scientific funding agencies around the world create and contribute to a common fund to support global environmental change research and allow the most efficient use of resources available. The group notes that although the organizational infrastructure for global research coordination exists, funding is managed by national and regional agencies individually, with increasing emphasis on local concerns.

As published in Eos.

Noting that there is some evidence for the existence of comparatively large ultralow-frequency magnetic field fluctuations preceding earthquakes with magnitudes M ~ 7 or greater, the author expresses concern that there is no U.S. federal program in the Earth sciences to obtain additional measurements using equipment appropriately located. He also notes that if the signals are emerging from more general Earth processes, measurements could provide new information about those processes and the Earth’s interior.

As published in Eos

Understanding passive margins—thick accumulations of sediments built above the juncture between continental and oceanic crusts—has far-reaching economic and societal implications related to hydrocarbon reserves, carbon dioxide sequestration, natural hazards, and other concerns. However, the author indicates that as presently envisioned, the U.S. National Science Foundation’s EarthScope initiative to explore the four-dimensional structure of the North American continent will not study U.S. passive margins. The author calls on the U.S. geoscientific community to discuss how best to reconfigure existing geoscientific initiatives to help Earthscope study passive margins.

As published in Eos

What is it like to work at the U.S. National Science Foundation as a program director? Is this something you are contemplating? Many consider temporary service as a “rotator” at NSF the best way to learn about how NSF works and to experience directly how scientists contribute to the process of funding and charting new research programs and directions. If you have questions, or other perspectives to add to the ones expressed in this Forum article, please contribute these to the on-line forum on being a rotator at NSF.

As published in Eos.