IUGG XXI Comptes Rendus	Top	Prev.	Next	End
Search:
Contents

ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP, ECONOMIC PROSPERITY,
AND NATIONAL SECURITY

Building a Foundation for the 21st Century

D. James Baker

U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, and
Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
A Presentation for the XXI General Assembly of the
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
Boulder, Colorado
July 2, 1995

Thank you, Chris, President Moritz, Chancellor Park, and Dr. Kisslinger. It's a great pleasure and honor to be here to talk to you tonight. We're facing turbulent times and an uncertain future, but these beautiful Colorado surroundings make me think back to the early explorations of the West.

In August 1842, Captain Fremont was doing a survey for the War Department along the Green River just north of here and wrote in his journal:

The air at sunrise is clear and pure, and the morning extremely cold, but beautiful. A lofty snow peak of the mountain is glittering in the first rays of the sun. The long mountain wall to the east, rising two thousand feet abruptly from the plain, is still dark, and cuts clear against the glowing sky. Later, winding our way up a long ravine, we came unexpectedly in view of a most beautiful lake, set like a gem in the mountains. Proceeding a little further, we came suddenly upon the outlet of the lake where it found its way through a narrow passage between low hills. The current was very swift, and the water cold and of a crystal purity.
In crossing the stream, I met with a great misfortune, in having my barometer broken. It was the only one. A great part of the interest of the journey for me was in the exploration of these mountains. So much had been said that was doubtful and contradictory. And now, their snowy peaks rose majestically before me and the only means of giving them authentically to science was destroyed. We had brought this barometer in safety one thousand miles, and now this. As soon as camp was formed, I set about repairing the instrument. I had with me a number of vials of tolerably thick glass to replace the cistern. Among the powder horns I found one which was very transparent. I boiled and stretched it, then secured it in place with strong glue made from buffalo. It worked! Our success in this little incident diffused pleasure throughout the camp and we immediately set about our preparations for ascending the mountains.

I like this story because it symbolizes for me the independence and ingenuity of the Earth scientist qualities you all share.

Well, that was the state of Earth science in 1842. It was not long afterwards that nations began to come together to discuss sharing of global information from ships at sea and then from the International Polar Years, which led to the International Geophysical Year (IGY). Sidney Chapman, in his history of the IGY, tells about the early days of the IUGG.

It was 1919 when the IUGG was established. At that time, the political passions of World War I were still intense. Scientists from the defeated nations were excluded from membership by the IUGG's parent organization, the International Research Council. This created great resentment among those who had been excluded and led to heated debate within the Council. The issue was finally resolved when the International Research Council was transformed into the International Council of Scientific Unions.

The unions themselves continued under ICSU, but all remaining exclusions were removed. The precedent was set. In 1945, when WWII ended, there was no question of excluding scientists from any nation in scientific programs and there was a sense of optimism that we could work together to solve common problems. In fact, over the next fifty years science has flourished as nations understood the need for science as a base for strong national defense and for improving the human condition. We have learned much about the Earth from research supported by both military and civilian agencies.

In the areas covered by the IUGG, for example, geodesy has been greatly advanced by space techniques ranging from Very Long Baseline Interferometry to the Global Positioning System. In seismology and physics of the Earth, we have made major advances in understanding the geology, processes, and history of the Earth through deep seismology, ocean drilling, and spaceborne systems ranging from optical to radar. In volcanology, we have learned more about the genesis of volcanoes and have begun to appreciate the role of aerosols and the effects they may have on stratospheric ozone and climate. In geomagnetism and aeronomy, we have learned much about the impacts of solar winds and chemistry of the stratosphere. In meteorology and the atmospheric sciences, we have greatly increased our understanding and ability to predict weather and climate.

In hydrology, we are continuing to learn about global energy and water cycles. And in the physical sciences of the ocean, we have made major strides in understanding and predicting seasonal to interannual climate patterns of the El Niño and in establishing long term trends in ocean processes. None of these advances would have been possible without the international collaboration fostered by organizations like the IUGG.

One of the greatest success stories of international cooperation was the IGY in 1957-58. The purpose of IGY was simple and had a wide appeal "the common study of our planet by all nations for the benefit of all." The IGY not only increased our understanding of the Earth, but also stimulated the development of new technologies. With the advent of satellites at that time, we began a whole new era of scientific investigation. Now global programs, internationally managed, are the order of the day. We have learned much about the Earth. New technology and new scientific insights have led to important applications that have direct impacts on mankind. We are poised to do much more.

National and Global Needs
in a Confused World

But even with this success, questions have arisen about the importance of science, and our funding is not increasing at the rate required to fully support the programs that we need to advance our understanding. Why is this?

Today, we face a confused world, with the end of the Cold War and the emergence of many regional conflicts. The economic picture is changing rapidly. Nations must provide for their citizens, build their economies, and, at the same time, maintain national security. With rising costs, governments find it more and more difficult to find adequate funding for their operations. A skeptical public is in agreement with the old saying: "If your outgo exceeds your income, then your upkeep will be your downfall!"

But even in a limited budget world, investments are critical. We must make the case to the public about the importance of what we do, and why science is a key to policy decisions. Our accomplishments are good, but not always explained well. We must show how we can relate to national and global needs.

I'll mention here a few examples of how we can do this the relation of environmental stewardship to economic growth, the forecasting and mitigation of natural disasters, and the dual use of technology for observing systems.

Environmental and Natural Resource Stewardship

All people want to meet their basic human needs and have an acceptable standard of living. But this becomes more difficult with increasing population. Only through continued economic growth will we be able to meet human needs and ensure an improvement of living standards around the world. Economic growth, in turn, will only be possible if we protect the environment and manage the Earth's resources for current and future generations. We don't want to be like the man in the New Yorker cartoon who said to his friend: "You want a higher standard of living, you have to settle for a lower quality of life."

With advances in technology and industry, many countries around the world have enjoyed improvements in their standard of living. At the same time, we have had to face the harmful impacts of human activities on the environment from pollution of the air, water, and soil, to the depletion of natural resources, to the disturbance of ecosystems.

In the past 25 years, we have made significant progress in forecasting natural events, improving air and water quality, understanding the processes that lead to climate change, addressing stratospheric ozone depletion, and understanding ecosystem interactions. This progress comes from improved scientific understanding and technical advances that have made it possible for us to begin to address the effects of human activities on the Earth system.

But the job is not complete. The natural environment has changed more since the end of World War II than during any other 50 years in the Earth's existence. The next 50 years may be pivotal in determining whether a sustainable balance will be achieved between natural, life-supporting processes and human activity. We will all need to develop policies and investment strategies to deal with the emerging problems of environmental degradation.

It is reasonable to expect that continued technological advances will lead to improvements in manufacturing processes, transportation, goods, and services and to the consumption of fewer resources and less energy and the generation of less waste. But ongoing research and input from the scientific community will be essential to ensure that we make the right choices both economic and environmental. These right choices require adequate scientific understanding of the processes involved that affect these real-world problems. This is an important point we need to get across to the public.

Operations Other Than War

This leads me to a topic which I will call Operations Other Than War. As the 20th century draws to a close, we are entering a new era of national security. We can no longer think of security as being based solely on military power. Both national and global security are increasingly dependent on having a strong economy, an adequate and equitable distribution of resources, and a safe and healthy environment. As populations grow, resource scarcities and environmental damages are likely to increase. This is likely to lead to increasing conflicts over natural resources and environmental issues. Given this new context, it is more important than ever to provide long-term support for science, technology, and environmental stewardship. These will be critical to ensuring the future prosperity and security of the world. Only an economically vital and physically healthy populace can defend itself.

The social conditions associated with environmental degradation often result in famine, the outbreak of disease, and civil or international conflict. There is a growing realization by world leaders that while humans are dependent on the natural world, they have the ability to alter it on a global scale and sometimes irreversibly. Increasing competition for the dwindling resources of uncontaminated air and water, arable land, fisheries and other food sources, once considered "free" goods, is already a very real risk to regional stability around the world.

The U.S. military is increasingly being tasked with missions that involve countering the effects of environmental degradation. These tasks have been called Operations Other Than War. When the U.S. military is assigned to areas such as Haiti, Rwanda, or Somalia, to conduct Operations Other Than War, there is a direct effect on U.S. security. In many cases, troops of the U.S. and other countries have not been trained or received special funding for this, and they are vulnerable to disease and sometimes to violence, as in Somalia.

It seems likely that the United States and other countries will be increasingly involved in Operations Other Than War, if the current trends in population growth and environmental degradation continue. The results of environmental degradation could be a weakening of public health in poorer regions and mass migrations of people in search of more benign environmental conditions (e.g., adequate fresh water, food, and energy). Mass migrations can then led to violent conflict as the indigenous people resist the migrants. And the conflict can lead to environmental degradation in these regions as well.

Natural Disaster Warning and Mitigation

In many cases, science offers the only substantial alert to governments and the public of emerging problems. A major security concern, especially as populations grow, is the vulnerability to natural disasters. Natural hazards such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and wildfires lead to the loss of thousands of lives and billions of dollars in property losses every year. The poorest nations are the least prepared to deal with the impacts of natural disasters. For many of these nations, a single event can reduce the annual gross domestic product by 25 percent.

The floods in Europe and California and the earthquake in Kobe, Japan, earlier this year were dramatic reminders of our vulnerability to natural hazards. They disrupted transportation and communication systems, drinking water supplies, and gas and other pipelines. They also had major impacts on financial markets, insurance practices, and government functions.

Natural disasters are not confined to a single nation's borders. For example, Holland complained that the flooding of the Rhine was exacerbated by Germany's actions or lack of action upstream. And the Kobe earthquake had economic impacts not just in Japan, but also on trading partners around the world.

We can not prevent natural hazards, but we can reduce our vulnerability to them. In recent years, the number of casualties due to natural hazards declined due to better warning and evacuation systems and improved construction materials and architectural designs. In 1903, the Galveston Hurricane killed 6000 people; in 1992, Hurricane Andrew killed only 24 people because of greatly improved warnings. But while we have been successful in minimizing the loss of human lives, economic losses have continued to escalate. Andrew and Iniki cost $17 billion. This is due primarily to urban population growth, construction in hazard-prone areas, and the increased value of urban infrastructure.

We can better prepare for natural hazards by improving natural hazard forecasting and prediction systems. Technologies to monitor and predict natural hazards are one example of technologies that promote global security. The United States is in the final stages of a $4 billion investment to modernize the National Weather Service. We have deployed a new generation of Doppler weather radars, automated surface observing systems, and geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites. A new Water Resources Forecasting System will make it possible to improve predictions of flooding and to mitigate U.S. flood losses. In addition, efforts are underway to better communicate hazardous weather conditions through an expanded NOAA Weather Radio network.

The United States regularly provides technical assistance and equipment to other countries to help them predict and assess changes in the natural environment. For example, we recently entered into an agreement with the People's Republic of China to furnish technical services for a prototype flood forecasting system for the Huai River Basin. Efforts such as this will help minimize the loss of lives and property due to natural disasters. They will also enhance the likelihood of economic, environmental and social stability abroad.

The United States will continue to participate in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. This United Nations activity is facilitating collaboration among member nations to reduce the impact of natural hazards.

Further scientific research and technological development are essential to improving our understanding of the processes behind natural hazards. We need to understand why explosive storms develop and why weather patterns sometimes remain stationary for long periods of time, as they did during the 1993 Midwest flood. We also need to better understand the coupled oceanic and atmospheric processes that lead to climate variability. We need to know the conditions that precede and follow earthquakes and volcanoes and the impacts of tsunamis.

A good example of international cooperation came in September 1994, when a volcano erupted on the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula. The ash plume reached 60,000 feet and disrupted the North Pacific air routes linking the Orient and Russia with the United States for a period of three days. The Russian Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team, the Japanese Meteorological Agency, the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Federal Aviation Administration, and NOAA worked together to provide warnings to aviation. The warnings were based on volcanic ash forecasts and transport dispersion model forecasts provided by NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory. These warnings made it possible for FAA to safely reroute more than 25 aircraft, saving potentially millions of dollars.

I focused on natural disasters here, but many of these same systems can be used to monitor man-made disasters such as nuclear power accidents such as those that have been experienced around the world.

Dual-Use Systems

Natural disasters are a problem; dual-use systems contribute to the solution. As Earth scientists, we know the critical importance of observations. The complex nature of the Earth means that we need comprehensive observations. One of the things I have personally worked on in the past few years is the application and use of technology designed for other purposes.

For example, we have in place today a number of observing systems that were designed primarily for military purposes, but can also be used for civilian purposes. One good example of this is the 24-satellite Global Positioning System (GPS). GPS provides a good example of how we are using advanced technology and scientific expertise to promote security. GPS is making it possible to develop more precise surveying and mapping techniques and to monitor tectonic movements. At the same time, geographic information systems (GIS) are making it easier to monitor and assess land-use patterns and ecosystem changes in ways that were previously impossible.

An example: NOAA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are providing Romania with technical training and equipment to establish GPS and GIS capabilities. The World Bank and the European Union are also involved, ensuring that a coordinated approach is taken to assisting the country. The use of GPS and GIS is accelerating the surveying and mapping of Eastern Europe. These tools are also facilitating Romania's divestiture of state-owned farms, and the land reforms are helping to stabilize regional economies.

GPS also offers the opportunity to use its signals for monitoring the atmosphere. Signals from GPS are now being used to measure water vapor and temperature in the atmosphere. The GPS is important because it represents a tool for accomplishing a primary mission navigation and positioning and also provides added value for other missions. What was a source of noise for navigation and positioning is a valuable signal for meteorology and climate. This is a simple example of dual-use technology which may, in the end, help us build more robust data systems.

A second example includes observing systems. I just returned from Russia, where a United States/Russian Bilateral Commission, headed by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and Vice President Al Gore, is developing new cooperative activities in trade and investment, energy, defense conversion, agriculture, health, science and technology, space, and the environment. These activities will help Russia as it builds its economy and moves toward free market capitalism. They will also help the U. S. by facilitating the sharing of vital information. Environmental science is an important aspect of the Commission's activity, and environmental science will be a key to Russia's finding a sustainable economy.

One of the areas we discussed during the meeting in Moscow was how to utilize the national security systems developed for the Cold War for environmental and global change applications. Over the past 50 years, both Russia and the United States created highly sophisticated national security systems to conduct space-based, airborne, and ocean-based observations. These systems have already contributed to world stability by providing factual information about each other's country and by verifying adherence to various treaties. By combining the resources of both countries, we can improve the spatial and temporal coverage of our databases. The real-time access and distribution of information can help us predict disasters, manage disasters as they occur, guide remediation efforts, and prevent future damages. This exchange of information could be particularly useful in dealing with severe weather conditions, earthquakes, volcanoes, forest fires, and nuclear accidents.

International Data Exchange

My final example is from the data and information field. We are faced today with a major change in our way of doing business this is the fact that information is becoming easier and easier to get. Handling data of massive proportions and learning how to live in a world of information overload is part of our daily lives, and will become more so.

I mentioned the IGY at the beginning of my talk. A key component of the IGY was the agreement that most observations should be collected at World Data Centers. In fact, Boulder is the home of five of the nine discipline centers of World Data Center A (glaciology, marine geology and geophysics, solar-terrestrial physics, solid earth geophysics, and paleoclimatology). Any scientific organization or investigator can obtain copies of data for not more than the cost of reproduction and transmission. The information is available to all countries, whether or not they participate in the investigations. This free and open data exchange is considered essential to advancing our understanding of the Earth system.

Now, with the growth of the information society and widespread availability of massive computing power, data and information issues are at the forefront of discussions. For example: in recent weeks, the Congress of the World Meteorological Organization has been engaged in intense discussions about the exchange of data. But the debate has been driven as much by economic and commercial concerns as by traditional security concerns this reflects a real shift in global thinking. The international scientific community was again called upon to assert its belief in free and open data exchange for scientific purposes, but to do this in a new context. The Congress came up with a good solution, one that mandated exchange of a broad range of critical data, and recognized the needs for conditions on some data of commercial value. Other groups will have to do the same, and can use the WMO agreement as a model.

Building a Foundation for the 21st Century

Let me conclude with a few words about building a foundation for the 21st century. The scientific opportunities in the years ahead are endless. New systems such as small satellites, new in situ techniques and information technologies will lead to even greater insights about the Earth system. Greater collaboration and the sharing of information among countries around the world will in turn accelerate the pace of scientific progress. And stronger partnerships among government agencies, the private and nonprofit sectors, academic institutions, and communities will help ensure that scientific research and development are applied to the needs of society.

But will we really get there from here? Or will we have a world that is marked by increasing vulnerability to natural and man-made environmental change and a decreasing standard of living for all? Our institutions are a key to our survival. International organizations like the IUGG can help by taking a new look at the role of science and technology in society. As we look to the 21st century, it is more important than ever for us to reexamine and communicate our priorities. Continued investments in scientific research and technology are essential if we are to further our understanding of the Earth system, protect the environment, and manage the Earth's resources for current and future generations. At the same time, the scientific community can help apply new knowledge and technologies to the needs of society. The military saying is "It's cheaper to counter a known threat."

I have talked about some near-term issues: budgets, natural disasters, and national security. In today's budget climate, it is easy to get caught up in concerns about immediate funding. Norm Augustine of Lockheed-Martin has described the situation this way: We are always in a position of having to respond to four-year Presidents, two-year Congresses, one-year budgets, 100-day contracts, and daily newspapers. But if we focus on only the short-term issues, we risk losing the long-term battle for sustainable development and global security.

As members of the scientific community, we can not afford to compromise the future by focusing only on short-term budgets. Long-term research is necessary for the understanding required to make short-term forecasts. Without that investment in the future, we will not be able to deliver either short-term or long-term results. Science and technology are in danger of being squeezed out by social services and deficits. And the situation in the United States is not unique. Other countries are facing similar budget problems. There is broad support from the President, the public, and Congress for reducing the Federal budget, but we must also continue to make investments for the future.

Jessica Matthews of the Council of Foreign Relations put it best: " What could be less conservative than choosing to fly blindly into the future? What could be more rash than deciding not to know the dimensions of a future threat?" You as scientists must take this message to the public and your elected representatives so they understand what can be done.

I would like to close with a short story: There was once a great flood, and each day the waters continued to rise. Before many days had gone by, it was clear that the area would have to be evacuated. One man had lived there for many, many years and had managed to live through the worst of storms. He was a man of great faith and believed that no matter how bad things appeared, he would be able to survive and save his home. The rain continued to fall, and a rescue worker drove by in a car and encouraged the man to come with him. The man refused, assuring the worker that there was no need to worry. Before long, the roads were impossible, and another rescue worker came by in a boat and offered to take the man to higher ground.

Again the man refused. By this time, the waters were so high that the man retreated to the roof of his house. A helicopter then came to rescue him, warning that it would soon be too late to help him at all... but still he refused assistance. Well... the man drowned and went to heaven. When he arrived in heaven, he said to God, "Why didn't you help me?" And God answered `Well, I did... Who do you think sent the car, the boat, and the helicopter?"

As scientists, we know that the tools we offer can provide help for the problems of society. It is incumbent on us to make sure that we clearly explain to the public what we can do and why it is important. The 21st century will be one of Operations Other Than War, one where we should be able to have warnings and mitigation of natural and human-induced disasters, both those we know about and those that may arise in the future. Only groups and individuals like you can do it.

IUGG XXI Comptes Rendus	Top	Prev.	Next	End
Search:
Contents