PA23A-1441 1340h
A Proposal for Preventing Marine Accidents Caused by Dangerous Seas Using Emerging Bi-static Radar Technology
The dangers encountered while navigating the world's oceans are well known. The lives lost due to unsuspecting ship captains venturing into unknown dangerous seas is staggering. However, it appears that advances in ocean remote sensing technology may soon present a solution to this age-old problem; only the political will remains to be persuaded. This new technology involves utilising the signals transmitted by navigation satellites, such as those of the GPS system and in the future those of the Galileo constellation. These signals are constantly being scattered off the surrounding seas and land, and these signals contain valuable and varied information on the Earth's environment. The scientific applications of this technology tend to concentrate on obtaining high accuracy measurements, such as a precise sea surface height or the mean square wave slopes, for use in improving modelling and in advancing our understanding of ocean science. These pursuits are unquestionably worthwhile, but it is often overlooked that by simplifying our requirements, such as to being able to distinguish dangerous seas from those that would be passable by the great majority of ships, a great advance in human well-being could possibly be achieved. The fact that this technology uses passive signals and does not require a transmitter opens up additional possibilities by potentially greatly reducing the cost of such projects. A plan will be presented in this paper as to how this technology could enable relatively low-cost systems that could provide dense spatial coverage of the entire globe at high repeat times that could be provided to marine users and hopefully avoid maritime disasters. The monitoring and coverage of specific areas, such as the west coast of Africa will also be looked into in detail using more modest satellite configurations. These efforts are designed to focus on preventing disasters like the capsizing of the Senegalese passenger ferry "Joola" that occurred in September of 2002. We will ask the crucial question: Could a system based on this technology prevent, or minimally reduce the chances of such unnecessary loss of life.
PA23A-1442 1340h
Modeling Cultural/ecological Impacts of Large-scale Mining and Industrial Development in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Basin
We are developing a methodology for predicting the cultural impact of large-scale mineral resource development in the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) basin. The Yup'ik/Cup'ik/Dene people of the Y-K basin currently practice a mixed-market subsistence economy, in which native subsistence traditions and social structures are largely intact. Large-scale mining and industrial-infrastructure developments are being planned that will constitute a significant expansion of the market economy, and will also significantly affect the physical environment that is central to the subsistence way of life. To explore the impact that these changes are likely to have on native culture we use a systems modeling approach, considering "culture" to be a system that encompasses the physical, biological and verbal realms. We draw upon Alaska Department of Fish and Game technical reports, anthropological studies, Yup'ik cultural visioning exercises, and personal experience to identify the components of our cultural model. We use structural equation modeling to determine causal relationships between system components. The resulting model is used predict changes that are likely to occur as a result of planned developments.
PA23A-1443 1340h
Community-based carbon sequestration in East Africa: Linking science and sustainability
International agreements on climate change have set the stage for an expanding market for greenhouse gas emissions reduction credits. Projects that can generate credits for trading are diverse, but one of the more controversial types involve biological carbon sequestration. For several reasons, most of the activity on these "sinks" projects has been in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Yet people in sub-saharan Africa could benefit from properly implemented projects. This poster will discuss estimates of the potential and risks of such projects in East Africa, and will describe in detail a case study located in central Tanzania and now part of the World Bank's BioCarbon Fund portfolio. Understanding climate variability and risk can effectively link international agreements on climate change, local realities of individual projects, and the characteristics of targeted ecosystems.
PA23A-1444 1340h
Mittigating the effects of large subduction-zone earthquakes in Western Sumatra
No giant earthquakes have struck the outer-arc islands of western Sumatra since the sequence of 1797, 1833 and 1861. Paleoseismic studies of coral microatolls reveal that failure of the subduction interface occurs in clusters of such earthquakes about every 230 years. Thus, the next such sequence may well be no more than a few decades away. In the meantime, GPS measurements and paleogeodetic observations show that the islands continue to submerge, dragged down by the downgoing oceanic slab, in preparation for the next failures of the subduction interface. Uplift of the islands and seafloor one to two meters during large events leads to large tsunamis and substantial changes in the coastal environments of the islands, including the seaward retreat of fringing reef, beach and mangrove environments. Having spent a decade characterizing the seismic history of western coastal Sumatra, we are now beginning to work with the inhabitants of the islands and the mainland coast to mitigate the associated hazards. Thus far, we have begun to creat and distribute posters and brochures aimed at educating the islanders about their natural tectonic environment and guiding them in preparing for future large earthquakes and tsunamis. We are also installing a continuous GPS network, in order to monitor ongoing strain accumulation and possible transients.
PA23A-1445 1340h
Time-Varying Multi-Hazard Index Using Empirical Methods
Natural hazards represent one of the greatest threats to the economic and social stability of developing countries. While many efforts have focused on studying and protecting against single hazards, these do not provide sufficient support for development decisions faced by countries at risk from multiple hazards. In order to improve resource allocation for the mitigation of multiple natural hazard impacts, we have developed a time-varying multiple hazard index using empirical methods. Our preliminary version of this index focuses on the four natural hazards with good historic data: earthquakes, floods, cyclones, and droughts. We create a statistic for each hazard computed from deviations away from observed "mean severity". For example, the mean earthquake severity is determined from average annual moment release in a specified geographic area (such as a country). Next, we compute the deviation of annual moment release by formulating a logarithmic statistic. A similar methodology involving an objective measure of hazard magnitudes and frequencies is used for the other hazards in our sample. We sum the individual hazard indices to form the time-varying multi-hazard index. Our early version of the Multi-Hazard Index has certain limitations. To be compatible with available socioeconomic data, we compute the index for whole countries regardless of the geographic scale of the hazard. This has the effect of oversmoothing the index for large countries. The use of sub national socioeconomic data (where available) would allow us to create the index on a smaller scale with improved accuracy. Furthermore, adjustments are needed in the weighting of different magnitude events of the same hazard type. Consideration also needs to be given to the weighting of the different individual hazard indices in the multi-hazard sum. We suggest several different approaches to these issues.
PA23A-1446 1340h
Applications of the Time-Varying Multi-Hazard Index to Armed Conflicts and GDP Growth Rate
The time-varying Multi-Hazard Index has many potential applications for comparisons against quantitative measures of sustainable development. We have compared the time-varying severity of multiple natural hazards against time-varying socio-economic data for selected countries. Our analysis compares Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and armed conflict occurrence against multiple hazard severity as measured by an empirical time-varying multiple hazard index. The purpose of these analyses is to establish and characterize correlations between the Multi-Hazard Index and trends in GDP and conflicts over the past 25 years. To analyze the relationship between natural hazards and armed conflicts, the Multi-Hazard Index was correlated against the number of conflicts at each intensity level for individual countries. A preliminary analysis was performed studying the apparent relationship as well as the possible existence of time lags. In a similar although more quantitative analysis, the GDP data was correlated against the Multi-Hazard Index for a particular country at different time lags. Analysis involving the conflict datasets yielded varying results from country to country. Colombia shows the strongest correlation, with all positive values of the Multi-Hazard Index followed by an escalation in conflict intensity. The results for other countries are more difficult to interpret as certain years show increases in the number of conflicts at one intensity level and a decrease for other intensity levels. Some issues that need to be addressed include the coding of the intensity for the conflict data, the dating for both conflicts and hazards, and the use of national boundaries as geographic extents. The degree of correlation between GDP growth and the Multi-Hazard Index varies from country to country as well. Our calculations for Honduras show an extremely high correlation, for example, implying a strong economic sensitivity to natural hazards, whereas for China no significant correlation was discernible. The low degree of correlation in China suggests that geographic scale plays an important role in determining hazard impacts: the national level GDP data may obscure the economic impacts of natural hazards on specific provinces and economic sectors, which contribute differently to the national GDP. We suggest an approach using sector-specific economic data for China that is disaggregated at the provincial scale.
PA23A-1447 1340h
Using Climate Information for Disaster Risk Identification in Sri Lanka
We have engaged in a concerted attempt to undertake research and apply earth science information for development in Sri Lanka, with a focus on climate sciences. Here, we provide details of an ongoing attempt to harness science for disaster identification as a prelude to informed disaster management. Natural disasters not only result in death and destruction but also undermine decades of development gains as highlighted by recent examples from Sri Lanka. First, in May 2003, flooding and landslides in the South-West led to 260 deaths, damage to 120,000 homes and destruction of schools, infrastructure and agricultural land. Second, on December 26, 2000, a cyclone in the North-Central region left 8 dead, 55,000 displaced, with severe damage to fishing, agriculture, infrastructure and cultural sites. Third, an extended island-wide drought in 2001 and 2002 resulted in a 2% drop in GDP. In the aftermath of these disasters, improved disaster management has been deemed to be urgent by the Government of Sri Lanka. In the past the primary policy response to disasters was to provide emergency relief. It is increasingly recognized that appropriate disaster risk management, including risk assessment, preventive measures to reduce losses and improved preparedness, can help reduce death, destruction and socio-economic disruption. The overwhelming majority of hazards in Sri Lanka - droughts, floods, cyclones and landslides -have hydro-meteorological antecedents. Little systematic advantage has, however, been taken of hydro-meteorological information and advances in climate prediction for disaster management. Disaster risks are created by the interaction between hazard events and vulnerabilities of communities, infrastructure and economically important activities. A comprehensive disaster risk management system encompasses risk identification, risk reduction and risk transfer. We undertook an identification of risks for Sri Lanka at fine scale with the support of the Global Disaster Hotspots project of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. We developed tools that translate meteorological, environmental and socio-economic exposure and vulnerability information into assessments of relevant hazard related disaster risk at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. We also developed high-resolution predictive capabilities for assessing seasonal hazard event. We found that useful hazard risk and vulnerability analysis can be carried out with the type of data that is available in Sri Lanka with sufficiently fine scale as to be useful for national level planning and action. Also, hydro-meteorological information was essential to estimate hazard risks. This analysis brought out a distinct seasonality to drought, floods, landslides and cyclone hazards in Sri Lanka. This work provides a foundation for systematic disaster management that shall manage risks through measures such as hazard warnings, scenario-based relief identification and planning, strategic river basin management, risk mapping and land use zoning, standards for construction and infrastructure. The fostering of research and application capacity in the vulnerable community leads to the appropriate and sustainable use of earth science information. This work contributes to the mitigation of risk of vulnerable communities and provides an example of the harnessing of geosciences for poverty alleviation and improvement of human well-being. Note: The contributions of Vidhura Ralapanawe, Upamala Tennakoon, Ruvini Perera, Maxx Dilley, Bob Chen and the Hotspots team are gratefully acknowledged.
http://iri.columbia.edu/~mahaweli/