PA24A-01 16:05h
21st Century Science for Sustainable Development in the Developing World
Meeting the Millennium Development Goals and, ultimately, eradicating extreme poverty, engages experts from many academic disciplines and different parts of society- climatologists, earth engineers, ecologists, economists, public health specialists, social activists, and politicians. We are in the midst of exciting technological and scientific breakthroughs that make it realistic to end extreme poverty by 2025. Indeed, the experiences of China and India in recent years have illustrated that technology can accelerate economic development to impressively high rates. India, which boasts growth rates of nearly 8% over the past decade, may end hunger among its population as early as 2007, thanks in large part to the Green Revolution underway there. The work of agronomists and economists are not unrelated - the science behind soil nutrients, water, and germplasm all fuel sustainable development. Science and technology are important ingredients for growth, and they are improving at an ever-increasing rate. When applied for the sake of human benefit, we have a tool of unprecedented strength. But the developing world has also reached a point of unprecedented environmental stress. Biodiversity faces serious threats, as do water supplies, forests, and the atmosphere. Developing and developed nations continue to grapple with the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. We must maintain our scientific investigations and analysis while ensuring that development policy addresses long-term environmental needs. The energy sector is one obvious example. Several developing countries, China and India included, harbor vast coal deposits. Fueling development with coal will drastically exacerbate the ongoing spiral of man-made climate change. My presentation will focus on the contributions that 21st century science can make-indeed, must make-to ensure that sustainable development occurs and we meet the Millennium Challenge of cutting extreme poverty in half by 2015.
PA24A-02 INVITED 16:25h
GCMs and MDGs: can climate science reduce poverty?
Sub-Saharan Africa, the birthplace of humankind, is seen by many, both as the least developed region of the world, and the region where the processes of globalization and sustainable development are most difficult to set in motion. Sub-Saharan African countries invariably appear en masse at the bottom of the annual UNDP Human Development Report rankings with development indicators such as life expectancy and basic nutrition levels in decline. The poorer communities are most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate fluctuations and seen as the least able to cope with current climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa has a population of approximately 625 million, with more than two thirds of the people dependant on rain-fed agriculture. The vast majority of the population lack access to clean water and sanitation and sub-Saharan Africa currently bears the highest burden of infectious diseases such as HIV-AIDS, TB and Malaria to be found anywhere in the world. With almost half of the region's population living on less than US$1 per day, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for one quarter of the world's poor. The rural poor are often considered to have no voice and therefore form a very weak political constituency. International development targets such as the recently articulated UN Millennium Development Goals are seen as one means of giving voice to this large but disenfranchised population. Improved management of climate sensitive sectors is essential to achieving a number of the MDgs: Poverty-Hunger, Disease, Water and sanitation. Climate information is also essential to measuring that achievement, as climate often acts as a confounder in any analysis of interventions. Here we present work on how climate science, including state of the art - multi-model ensemble seasonal climate forecasting models, are being used in support of achieving the MDGs in Africa.
PA24A-03 16:40h
Urban Earthquakes - Reducing Building Collapse Through Education
Fatalities from earthquakes rose from 6000k to 9000k/year in the past decade, yet the ratio of numbers of earthquake fatalities to instantaneous population continues to fall. Since 1950 the ratio declined worldwide by a factor of three, but in some countries the ratio has changed little. E.g in Iran, 1 in 3000 people can expect to die in an earthquake, a percentage that has not changed significantly since 1890. Fatalities from earthquakes remain high in those countries that have traditionally suffered from frequent large earthquakes (Turkey, Iran, Japan, and China), suggesting that the exposure time of recently increased urban populations in other countries may be too short to have interacted with earthquakes with long recurrence intervals. This in turn, suggests that disasters of unprecendented size will occur (more than 1 million fatalities) when future large earthquakes occur close to megacities. However, population growth is most rapid in cities of less than 1 million people in the developing nations, where the financial ability to implement earthquake resistant construction methods is limited. In that structural collapse can often be traced to ignorance about the forces at work in an earthquake, the future collapse of buildings presently under construction could be much reduced were contractors, builders and occupants educated in the principles of earthquake resistant assembly. Education of builders who are tempted to cut assembly costs is likely to be more cost effective than material aid.
PA24A-04 INVITED 16:55h
Engineering a Sustainable Blue Planet: Exploring the dynamics
Man's hand as a geomorphic agent is now endemic. The dynamics of water and other material cycles is now significantly impacted at all scales: from hillsides to watersheds to the earth, and from urban flash flood events to mean long term flow. Locally and regionally, climatic exigencies serve to spur either ruin (in the poorest societies) or a flurry of human infrastructure development. Thus, at the local scale, geomorphology depends on man's struggle for survival, and the associated interaction with nature's vagaries. Of course, we now recognize that man induced changes in land surface attributes (related to agriculture or deforestation) and in atmospheric composition translate into relatively unforeseeable climate changes, i.e., nature at a planetary scale has a different face. Despite the recognition of these interacting factors, a conceptual model that treats the dynamics of man and nature as separable and separate, dominates the earth sciences. We study global climate change and its impacts as sequential outcomes of a carbon emission scenario, and not as endogenous processes of the earth-man system with mutual feedbacks. The definition of a man-nature dynamical system is feasible as an abstraction. I explore such a definition through examples, one at the global scale, and one at a local scale. These examples are formulated in the context of meeting the challenge of poverty reduction through the provision of water for health and food, while considering vulnerability to a dynamic climate and to changes in the environment.
PA24A-05 17:10h
Arsenic in Bangladesh Groundwater: from Science to Mitigation
A large proportion of the populations of Bangladesh and other South Asian countries is at risk of contracting cancers and other debilitating diseases due to exposure to high concentrations of naturally occurring arsenic in groundwater supplied by millions of tube wells. Starting in January 2000, and in partnership with several Bangladeshi institutions, an interdisciplinary team of health, earth, and social scientists from Columbia University has focused its efforts to address this crisis on a 25 km2 region in Araihazar upazila, about 20 km northeast of Dhaka. The project started with the recording of the position and depth of ~6600 wells in the area, the collection of groundwater samples from these wells, and laboratory analyses for arsenic and a suite of other constituents. This was followed by the recruitment of 12,000 adult inhabitants of the area for a long-term cohort study of the effects of arsenic exposure, as well as cross-sectional studies of their children. This presentation will focus on (1) the extreme degree of spatial variability of arsenic concentrations in Bangladesh groundwater, (2) the notion that spatial variability hampers mitigation in the sense that it complicates predictions but also offers an opportunity for mitigation because many households live within walking or drilling distance of safe water, and (3) the implication of recent advances in our understanding of the mechanisms of arsenic mobilization for potential temporal changes in groundwater arsenic. In addition, (4) a unique data set documenting the response of 6500 households to 4 years of mitigation in Araihazar, supported by documented reductions in exposure to arsenic based on urine analyses, will be presented. The presentation will conclude with (5) a proposal for scaling up mitigation efforts to the rest of the country by targeting safe aquifers with information transmitted to the village level from a central data base using cellular phones.
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/news/2003/story07-18-03.html
PA24A-06 17:25h
The Geographical and Biophysical Correlates of Hunger and Infant Mortality: Lessons from CIESIN's Poverty Mapping Activities
This paper reports on a collection of recent efforts to integrate global spatial datasets and survey microdata to investigate drivers of hunger and infant mortality. They were motivated by a desire on the part of the United Nations Millennium Project to understand the conditions under which the world's poor and hungry live, for the purpose of improving the diagnosing the causes of poverty and hunger, designing interventions, and understanding the interactions among different Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). First, at the global level, it reports on a number of explorations that were undertaken to characterize the large-scale distribution of the world's poor in terms of climatic, topographic, land cover, ecosystem, and hydrologic factors. Second, at the regional level, it reports on an analysis of the correlates of hunger in Africa. Third, it reports on work combining survey microdata with spatial data in a study of infant mortality in West Africa. Lastly, it discusses ongoing work to combine these two scales at the continental and global scale in the context of drivers of hunger.
PA24A-07 17:40h
Can Earth Sciences Help Alleviate Global Poverty?
Poverty is not properly described solely in terms of economics. Certainly the billion people living on less than a dollar a day are the extreme poor and the two billion people who are living today on two dollars a day or less are poor also. One third of all humans live in poverty today. But poverty concerns deprivation - of good health, adequate nutrition, adequate education, properly paid employment, clean water, adequate housing and good sanitation. It is a fundamental denial of opportunity and a violation of basic human rights. Despite its prevalence and persistence of poverty and the attention given it by many scholars, the causes of poverty are not well understood and hence interventions to bring poor societies out of their condition often fail. One commonly missed component in the search for solutions to poverty is the fundamental co-dependence between the state of the Earth and the state of human well-being. These relationships, are compelling but often indirect and non-linear and sometimes deeply nuanced. They are also largely empirical in nature, lacking theory or models that describe the nature of the relationships. So while it is quite apparent that the poorest people are much more vulnerable than the rich to the Earths excesses and even to relatively small natural variations in places where the base conditions are poor, we do not presently know whether the recognized vulnerability is both an outcome of poverty and a contributing cause. Are societies poor, or held from development out of poverty because of their particular relationship to Earth's natural systems? Does how we live depend on where we live? Providing answers to these questions is one of the most fundamental research challenges of our time. That research lies in a domain squarely at the boundary between the natural and social sciences and cannot be answered by studies in either domain alone. What is clear even now, is that an understanding of the Earth gained from the natural sciences is essential and could hold the key to making gains toward alleviating the burden of global poverty.
http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/sop2004/consensus.html