PA51A-1464 0800h
Health And Economic Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction In Indonesia: SO2
The objective of this study is to assess Indonesia's air quality. This comprised an assessment of Indonesia's air pollution levels and their impact on the development of health and the economics. Estimates are given of concentrations of one of the major pollutants: sulfur dioxide (SO2). Emissions are estimated for Indonesian region, based on energy consumption, derived from the MERGE simulation model. The air pollution levels projection for the year 2000 to the year 2100 are based on the IPCC scenarios, extended with some mitigation scenarios for the energy sector. If the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries reduce their emissions, Indonesian oil consumption increases, and the emissions of SO2 are higher than in the baseline scenario. Health problems increase substantially, peaking to the middle of century in the A1B and B1 scenarios, and rising to the end of century in the A2 and B2 scenarios, while the health problem costs will be the highest during the middle of century in the A1B and B1 scenarios and toward the end of century in the A2 and B2 scenarios. With international trade in emission permits, Indonesia would be higher than in the baseline scenario, since more and more oil and coal using in domestic sources of energy, followed by higher of health problem cases and higher of health problem costs. The total cases of health problem are higher 18.5% than in the baseline scenario. If all countries reduce their emission, including Indonesia, the total concentrations of SO2 are lower than previous scenarios. The cases of health problem associated with SO2 are lower than in the baseline scenario and follow by the lower of the health problem costs. The costs of health problem associated with SO2 are to 35% lower than in the baseline scenario during the simulation period.
PA51A-1465 0800h
Exercise based transportation reduces oil consumption and carbon emissions
Current abuse and misrepresentation of science hinders society's ability to address climate change. Scientific abuse results, in part, from a widespread perception that curbing emissions will require substantial economic, political, or personal sacrifice. Here I provide one example to illustrate that this perception is false. Simply walking or biking the amount recommended for a healthy lifestyle could reduce carbon emissions up to 11 percent if the distances traveled were substituted for car travel. This level of exercise is also sufficient to eliminate obese and overweight conditions in a few years without draconian diet plans. A reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of roughly 35 percent is possible if the revenue saved through decreased health care spending on obesity is redirected toward carbon abatement. This emissions reduction far exceeds that required by the Kyoto Protocol at no net cost. Finally, widespread substitution of driving with distances traveled during recommended daily exercise would considerably ease societal dependence on oil, which leads not only to climate change but also to air pollution, political and economic instability and habitat degradation. Thus, exercise based transportation constitutes a potentially favorable alternative to the energy and diet plans that are currently under consideration and a substantial step toward dealing with the threat of climate change.
PA51A-1466 0800h
Aggressive Strategies for Residential Energy and Carbon Savings by 2025
Energy efficiency technologies and practices have long been recognized as a low-cost, often least cost, option that can be deployed widely throughout the economy (Steve Nadel, 2002; Donald A. Hanson and John A. Laitner, 2003). We are engaged in a review of technology-based energy savings options throughout the U. S. economy with a joint focus on both immediate savings opportunities and long-term strategies for accelerating the innovation process and pipeline. For the near term, we developed scenarios based on available 'off the shelf' technologies and practices for achieving minimum energy consumption in lighting, standby power in electronics, and miscellaneous end-uses in the U.S. residential sector. In the business-as-usual (BAU) case, energy consumption continues to grow despite innovations at a current rate of 1.7 percent/year (Laitner, 2004). Nevertheless, the need for developing new energy supplies can be mitigated through the use of 'best current technologies' as the industry norm in 2025. Figure 1 (see URL below) shows this reduction in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The BAU model corresponds to the current rate of 'decarbonization' in the overall U.S. economy (Energy Information Administration, 2004). Over a twenty-year period, about 2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide and 30 quads of primary fuel could be saved through the introduction of "best current technology" with the greatest reductions in the area of lighting technologies. In 2025, 1.5 quads of primary energy is saved with the breakdown in end-use electricity saved as follows: 113 TWh (0.39 quads), 70.8 TWh (0.24 quads), and 62 TWh (0.21 quads) for residential lighting, appliance standards, and standby power respectively. In addition, there is empirical evidence from specific technology sectors, from statewide programs in California, as well as on theoretical grounds (Laitner, 2004) that innovation and decarbonization rates of 3 to 5 percent/year have at times been, and could again be achieved. While such high rates of innovation do not usually sustain themselves for more than a few years, innovation rates higher than the current 1.7 percent/year are also explored in this study. Acknowledgement: Alliance to Save Energy (ASE) and Energy Foundation References: {\bf Energy Information Administration.} "Annual Energy Outlook 2004." Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, 2004. {\bf Hanson, Donald A. and Laitner, John A. "Skip".} "An Integrated Analysis of Policies That Increase Investments in Advanced Energy-Efficient/Low-Carbon Technologies." Energy Economics, 2003. {\bf Laitner, J. A.} "How far energy efficiency." 2004. {\bf Nadel, Steve.} "Appliance and Equipment Efficiency Standards." Annual Reviews, 2002.
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~frank/AGU_Abstract_Figure1.tif
PA51A-1467 0800h
Global warming and the mining of oceanic methane hydrate
The impacts of global warming on the environment, economy and society are presently receiving much attention by the international community. However, the extent to which anthropogenic factors are the main cause of global warming is still being debated. There are obviously large stakes associated with the validity of any theory since that will indicate what actions need to be taken to protect the human race's only home - Earth. Most studies of global warming have investigated the rates and quantities of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. In this paper, we focus on the Earth's carbon budget and the associated energy transfer between various components of the climate system. This research invokes some new concepts: (i) certain biochemical processes which strongly interact with geophysical processes in climate system; (ii) a hypothesis that internal processes in the oceans rather than in the atmosphere are at the center of global warming; (iii) chemical energy stored in biochemical processes can significantly affect ocean dynamics and therefore the climate system. Based on those concepts, we propose a new hypothesis for global warming. We also propose a revolutionary strategy to deal with global climate change and provide domestic energy security at the same time. Recent ocean exploration indicates that huge deposits of oceanic methane hydrate deposits exist on the seafloor on continental margins. Methane hydrate transforms into water and methane gas when it dissociates. So, this potentially could provide the United States with energy security if the technology for mining in the 200-mile EEZ is developed and is economically viable. Furthermore, methane hydrate is a relatively environmentally benign, clean fuel. Such technology would help industry reduce carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere, and thus reduce global warming by harnessing the energy from the deep sea.