U53B-01
Disaster Risk Transfer for Developing Countries
Financing disaster recovery often diverts resources from development, which can have long-term effects on economic growth and the poor in developing countries. Moreover, post-disaster assistance, while important for humanitarian reasons, has failed to meet the needs of developing countries in reducing their exposure to disaster risks and assuring sufficient funds to governments and individuals for financing the recovery process. The authors argue that part of disaster aid should be refocused from post-disaster to pre-disaster assistance including financial disaster risk management. Such assistance is now possible with new modeling techniques for estimating and pricing risks of natural disasters coupled with the advent of novel insurance instruments for transferring catastrophe risk to the global financial markets. The authors illustrate the potential for risk transfer in developing countries using the IIASA CATSIM model, which shows the potential impacts of disasters on economic growth in selected developing countries and the pros and cons of financial risk management to reduce those adverse impacts. The authors conclude by summarizing the advantages of investing in risk-transfer instruments (coupled with preventive measures) as an alternative to traditional post-disaster donor assistance. Donor-supported risk-transfer programs would not only leverage limited disaster aid budgets, but would also free recipient countries from depending on the vagaries of post-disaster assistance. Both the donors and the recipients stand to gain, especially since the instruments can be designed to encourage preventive measures. Precedents already exist for imaginative risk-transfer programs in highly exposed developing countries, including national insurance systems, micro-insurance schemes like weather derivatives and novel instruments (e.g., catastrophe bonds) to provide insurance cover for public sector risks.
U53B-02
The Impacts Of The Indian Ocean Tsunami On Coastal Ecosystems And Resultant Effects On The Human Communities Of Sri Lanka
The devastating tsunami that hit Sri Lanka on December 26, 2004 has demonstrated vividly the inter-connections between social and ecological resilience. Before the tsunami, the coastal zone of Sri Lanka was inhabited by predominantly poor populations, most of whom were directly dependent upon coastal natural resources, such as fisheries and coconut trees, for supporting their livelihoods. Many of these people have now lost their livelihoods through the destruction of their boats and nets for fishing, the contamination of drinking sources, homes, family members and assets. This presentation focuses on observations of the tsunami impacts on both social and ecological communities made along the affected coastline of Sri Lanka in April-May 2005. This assessment recorded patterns of ecological resistance and damage resulting from the tsunami in relation to damage on the human environment, with an exploration of the physical factors that may have contributed to vulnerability or resistance. This work also involved a preliminary assessment of the resilience and recovery of different natural resource based livelihood strategies following the disaster and an exploration of livelihood possibilities in proposed resettlement sites. From observations made in this and other recent studies, it is apparent that intact ecosystems played a vital role in protection from the impact of the tsunami and are vital for supporting people as they seek to rebuild their livelihoods. However, certain structural and biological characteristics appear to offer certain tree species, such as coconut (Cocos nucifera), an advantage in surviving such events and have been important for providing food and drink to people in the days after the tsunami. Areas where significant environmental damage had occurred prior to the tsunami or where there were few natural defenses present to protect human communities, devastation of homes and lives was extremely high. Although, there is evidence that many previously intact ecological systems were little affected or will recover from this large disturbance, major impacts on the natural environment may come in the aftermath of the tsunami during the rebuilding and reconstruction phase. The ability of communities to recover from disasters and to rebuild their lives is dependent on both an intact natural resource base and the maintenance of social networks for learning, adapting and managing resources. The potential impacts of rebuilding on the natural environment combined with policies on resettlement may influence the ability to learn, cope and manage such events and resources in the future.
U53B-03
Urban Seismic Risk Perception and its Impact on Seismic Vulnerability in Unauthorized Housing Settlements of Istanbul, Turkey
Unauthorized housing is a primary means of shelter in urban centers throughout the industrializing world. These homes, often built on squatted land or by self builders, are frequently un-engineered multi-story concrete apartment buildings that are highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Yet, the production of unauthorized housing and its relationship to seismic risk is often overlooked in global efforts to improve building codes and develop regional disaster management strategies. Istanbul, Turkey, like many rapidly industrializing cities of the developing world, is a city with over 50 percent illegal housing. It is also located on one of the world's most active fault lines with a high probability of a large earthquake in the near future. A recent study of risk perception conducted in four diverse districts of Istanbul indicates that risk perception is critical to understanding patterns of vulnerability across legal and illegal districts. However, contrary to assumptions that the most vulnerable residents are those least able to make risk decisions, this study shows that residents of unauthorized housing districts, while being exposed to elevated seismic risk, are most likely to take actions that impact their risk. These actions include choosing rental apartments and self-designing and building homes based on risk perception. Yet, despite considerable effort to reduce exposure to seismic risk, a lack of knowledge regarding the components of hazard and vulnerability often results in actions that are ineffective or have created heightened vulnerability. There is a critical need for members of the scientific and engineering community to engage with residents living in unauthorized housing districts. It is these residents that can quickly turn knowledge about hazard and vulnerability into actions that can reduce their own risk and in aggregate the overall risk that urban centers face.
U53B-04
The Identification of Filters and Interdependencies for Effective Resource Allocation: Coupling the Mitigation of Natural Hazards to Economic Development.
Policy formulation for the mitigation and management of risks posed by natural hazards requires that governments confront difficult decisions for resource allocation and be able to justify their spending. Governments also need to recognize when spending offers little improvement and the circumstances in which relatively small amounts of spending can make substantial differences. Because natural hazards can have detrimental impacts on local and regional economies, patterns of economic development can also be affected by spending decisions for disaster mitigation. This paper argues that by mapping interdependencies among physical, social and economic factors, governments can improve resource allocation to mitigate the risks of natural hazards while improving economic development on local and regional scales. Case studies of natural hazards in Turkey have been used to explore specific "filters" that act to modify short- and long-term outcomes. Pre-event filters can prevent an event from becoming a natural disaster or change a routine event into a disaster. Post-event filters affect both short and long-term recovery and development. Some filters cannot be easily modified by spending (e.g., rural-Urban migration) but others (e.g., land-Use practices) provide realistic spending targets. Net social benefits derived from spending, however, will also depend on the ways by which filters are linked, or so-called "interdependencies". A single weak link in an interdependent system, such as a power grid, can trigger a cascade of failures. Similarly, weak links in social and commercial networks can send waves of disruption through communities. Conversely, by understanding the positive impacts of interdependencies, spending can be targeted to maximize net social benefits while mitigating risks and improving economic development. Detailed information on public spending was not available for this study but case studies illustrate how networks of interdependent filters can modify social benefits and costs. For example, spending after the 1992 Erzincan earthquake targeted local businesses but limited alternative employment, labor losses and diminished local markets all contributed to economic stagnation. Spending after the 1995 Dinar earthquake provided rent subsidies, supporting a major exodus from the town. Consequently many local people were excluded from reconstruction decisions and benefits offered by reconstruction funds. After the 1999 Marmara earthquakes, a 3-year economic decline in Yalova illustrates the vulnerability of local economic stability to weak regulation enforcement by a few agents. A resource allocation framework indicates that government-community relations, lack of economic diversification, beliefs, and compensation are weak links for effective spending. Stronger positive benefits could be achieved through spending to target land-Use regulation enforcement, labor losses, time-critical needs of small businesses, and infrastructure. While the impacts of the Marmara earthquakes were devastating, strong commercial networks and international interests helped to re-establish the regional economy. Interdependencies may have helped to drive a recovery. Smaller events in eastern Turkey, however, can wipe out entire communities and can have long-lasting impacts on economic development. These differences may accelerate rural to urban migration and perpetuate regional economic divergence in the country. 1: Research performed in the Wharton MBA Program, Univ. of Pennsylvania.
U53B-05
The Katrina disaster: a poor world tragedy in a rich country
The Katrina hurricane catastrophe this year and the tsunami tragedy of December 2004 bear disquieting similarities in their consequences on human populations. Though dissimilar in their natural causes both resulted primarily in drowning as a reason for loss of life. The tsunami took the lives of an estimated 300,000 people most of whom were relatively poor. As such that disaster underscores the well-supported observation that people in the lower rungs of society globally are at far greater mortality risk from natural disasters than those at the upper levels. Countries that fall lowest by measures such as the Human Development Index (HDI) like the poorest countries in Africa are known to suffer much greater losses than people richer countries. At least in part this is due to the prevalence of fragile built structures and weak emergency response institutions. But the vulnerability of the poor is also amplified by their location, often in regions prone to flooding, landslides or marginal regions susceptible to climate extremes. While well recognized in a developing world context, the vulnerability to natural catastrophes of the poorest within rich societies has been less apparent until now. Most disasters such as earthquakes in California and seasonal hurricanes in Florida and the Gulf coast have resulted in relatively few deaths (compared to similar events in poor countries) and people from most sectors of society have been impacted. The loss of life from Katrina is approaching the scale of developing world disasters and also bears their signature with many more fatalities among poorer people than those at the upper levels of society. The reasons for their vulnerability seem similar as well and have little to do with the nature of the natural event itself. These two disasters occurring within the space of one year with very different causes and in distant parts of the globe have resulted in alarmingly similar outcomes on societies that carry with it universal lessons in disaster preparedness