SPA-Aeronomy [SA]

SA53A MCW:Level 2 Friday 1340h

Space Weather Operational Products III Posters

Presiding:S Quigley, Air Force Research Laboratory; T Nobis, Air Force Weather Agency

SA53A-1348

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

* Fisher, G (fisher@ametsoc.org) , American Meteorological Society, 1120 G Street, NW Suite 800, Washington, DC 20005
Jones, B (bryn.jones@solarmetrics.com) , SolarMetrics Limited, Lower Ground Floor 20 Nugent Road, Surrey, GBR GU27AF

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

SA53A-1349

Operational Space Weather in USAF Education

* Smithtro, C (Christopher.Smithtro@afit.edu) , Air Force Institute of Technology, AFIT/ENP 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433-7765, United States
Quigley, S (Stephen.Quigley@cisf.af.mil) , Air Force Institute of Technology, AFIT/ENP co SMC/WXTG 1050 E. Stewart Ave., Peterson AFB, CO 80914-2902, United States

Most education programs offering space weather courses are understandably and traditionally heavily weighted with theoretical space physics that is the basis for most of what is researched and modeled. While understanding the theory is a good and necessary grounding for anyone working the field of space weather, few military or commercial jobs employ such theory in real-time operations. The operations sites/centers are much more geared toward use of applied theory-resultant models, tools and products. To ensure its operations centers personnel, commanders, real-time system operators and other customers affected by the space environment are educated on available and soon-to-be operational space weather models and products, the USAF has developed applicable course/lecture material taught at various institutions to include the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT) and the Joint Weather Training Complex (335th/TRS/OUA). Less frequent training of operational space weather is available via other venues that will be discussed, and associated course material is also being developed for potential use at the National Security Space Institute (NSSI). This presentation provides an overview of the programs, locations, courses and material developed and/or taught by or for USAF personnel dealing with operational space weather. It also provides general information on student research project results that may be used in operational support, along with observations regarding logistical and professional benefits of teaching such non-theoretical/non-traditional material.

SA53A-1350

A Comprehensive Physical Basis for Remotely Sensing Micrometeoroids

Close, S (sigrid@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop: D436 ISR-2, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States
* Colestock, P (colestoc@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop: D436 ISR-2, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States
Zinn, J (jzinn@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Mail Stop: D436 ISR-2, Los Alamos, NM 87545, United States

It has long been known that an intense flux of small-mass meteors (~1 ��g) can be readily detected with high- power large-aperture (HPLA) radar. At high altitudes, these meteoroids may damage orbiting satellites by both direct impact as well as spacecraft charging. At lower altitudes, meteoroids affect ionospheric and thermospheric processes by depositing heavy metallic atoms, ions and dust. Moreover, there is evidence that meteoroids can disrupt and halt radio communication by creating plasma density perturbations that are several orders of magnitude greater than those seen in the background ionosphere. Because of the critical importance of characterizing this flux, we have developed a detailed plasma expansion model of the ablating material as the meteoroids disintegrate in the ionosphere, which is the physical basis needed to understand radar scattering from these plasmas. Our results show that the ablation plume depends on altitude through the electron collision rate, which in turn determines the importance of collective fields on the plasma dynamics. Typically a shock forms whose thickness depends on the object velocity and the background ionospheric parameters. At sufficiently high altitudes, even the weak geomagnetic field can play an important role in determining the shock��s properties. We will review the range of expected phenomena and show simulations of the plasma dynamics using our comprehensive fluid plasma dynamic and air-chemistry models. These results will allow us to directly measure the meteoroid��s mass, radius and density independently and help us determine the meteoroid risk to spacecraft.

SA53A-1351

Data-driven Solar Wind Model and Prediction of Type II Bursts

Florens, M S (magali.florens@free.fr) , School of Physics, University of Sydney, Physics Road, Sydney, NSW 2006 Australia
* Cairns, I H (i.cairns@physics.usyd.edu.au) , School of Physics, University of Sydney, Physics Road, Sydney, NSW 2006 Australia
Knock, S A (sknock@physics.usyd.edu.au) , School of Physics, University of Sydney, Physics Road, Sydney, NSW 2006 Australia

Type II solar radio bursts are produced by shock waves moving through the corona and solar wind. An existing theory predicts the Type II dynamic spectrum by considering electron acceleration at the shock, growth of Langmuir waves, and their conversion into radiation. Two contributions are presented. First, a more realistic 2-dimensional model for the solar wind is constructed for specified time periods from spacecraft data at 1 AU. It converts time to longitude and extrapolates to different heliocentric distances using MHD-like equations and power-law temperature profiles. Second, the type II theory is combined with the data- driven solar wind model to predict the dynamic spectrum for a specific Type II burst. The results show good qualitative agreement with the observations, as well as demonstrating that shock interactions with corotating interaction regions lead to enhanced emission. The new theoretical model for Type II bursts is relevant to NASA's STEREO mission and space weather research.

SA53A-1352

Solar Irradiance Data for Space Weather from SORCE and TIMED-SEE

* Snow, M (snow@lasp.colorado.edu) , Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80302
Woodraska, D (woodraska@lasp.colorado.edu) , Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80302
McClintock, W E (mcclintock@lasp.colorado.edu) , Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80302
Woods, T N (woods@lasp.colorado.edu) , Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80302
Kopp, G (kopp@lasp.colorado.edu) , Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80302

The SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) missions produce many solar irradiance data products of interest to the space weather community. The SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Solar EUV Experiment (SEE) measure solar spectral irradiance below 300 nm, while the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) detects the Total Solar Irradiance. Ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet solar spectral irradiances in defined bands are made available shortly after spacecraft contacts every day. Six-hour averages for the Magnesium II index and Total Solar Irradiance are also produced on a daily basis. These datasets are available via ftp for easy integration into the user's data stream. While these data come from research experiments rather than operational satellites, we have been able to make them reliably available for several years. The SOLSTICE Mg II index is often used as a redundant data source in case data from NOAA is unavailable. Additional space weather data products are planned from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiement (EVE), which is scheduled for launch in August 2008.

SA53A-1353

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) as an Operational Space Weather Product

* Chamberlin, P C (phil.chamberlin@lasp.colorado.edu) , U of Colorado/LASP, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
Woods, T N (tom.woods@lasp.colorado.edu) , U of Colorado/LASP, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80303, United States
Eparvier, F G (eparvier@colorado.edu) , U of Colorado/LASP, 1234 Innovation Dr, Boulder, CO 80303, United States

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The FISM spectra are currently available for historical studies. The FISM algorithms are currently being updated to provide solar VUV irradiance spectra near real-time with less than a 15-minute time lag in order to be used in operational space weather processing. Progress on these updated algorithms as well as near-term improvements to meet these operational goals will be discussed.

SA53A-1354

Solar and Heliospheric Modeling Activities at the CCMC

* MacNeice, P (pmacneic@pop900.gsfc.nasa.gov) , CCMC, NASA/GSFC Code 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Rastaetter, L (lrastaet@pop600.gsfc.nasa.gov) , CCMC, NASA/GSFC Code 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Michael, H (Michael.Hesse@nasa.gov) , CCMC, NASA/GSFC Code 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Maddox, M (Marlo.Maddox@nasa.gov) , CCMC, NASA/GSFC Code 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Odstrcil, D (dusan.odstrcil@noaa.gov) , NOAA/SEC, 325 Broadway, Boulder, Co 80305, United States
Arge, C (nick.arge@hanscom.af.mil) , Charles Arge, AFRL 29 Randolph Rd, Space Vehicles Dir., Hanscom AFB, MA 01731, United States
Riley, P (pete.riley@saic.com) , SAIC, 11337 Seda Pl., San Diego, Ca 92124, United States
Sokolov, I (igorsok@umich.edu) , University of Michigan, 2455 Hayward St, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States

The CCMC currently hosts a number of different MHD and semi-empirical models of the corona and heliosphere. These models are frequently updated as the developers improve their models, adding new features and improving their accuracy and robustness. In particular the models in this community are transitioning from modes in which they support runs driven by synoptic photospheric magnetograms, to modes which include transient events and numerical experimentation through the use of user defined inputs. In this presentation we report on these upgrade activities and on the evolution of the models to support this new experimentation. In addition we report on use of our in-house data formatting and interpolation tool to design a comprehensive magnetogram construction tool.

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/

SA53A-1355

ICMEs' evolution and interaction from Sun to the heliosphere during both solar cycle minimum and maximum phases

* Wu, C (wuc@cspar.uah.edu) , Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, S101 Olin B. King Technology Hall, Huntsville, AL 35899, United States
Fry, C (gfry@expi.com) , Exploration Physics International, Inc., 6275 University Drive, Suite 37-105, Huntsville, AL 35806, United States
Dryer, M (murray.dryer@noaa.gov) , NOAA Space Environment Laboratory Center, R/E/SE, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305, United States
Wu, S (wus@cspar.uah.edu) , Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research, University of Alabama in Huntsville, S101 Olin B. King Technology Hall, Huntsville, AL 35899, United States
Liou, K (kan.liou@jhuapl.edu) , APL/JHU, The Johns Hopkins University/ Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD 20723, United States

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), and their shocks, play an important role in situations involving the occurrence of geomagnetic storms, SEPs, and ESPs. Prediction of an ICME's arrival time at Earth, Mars, and elsewhere in the heliosphere becomes an important issue for space weather forecasting. In this study, a global, three-dimensional, time-dependent, hybrid model is used to investigate the ICMEs' propagation into a non-uniform solar wind medium. For example, we demonstrate the interaction between ICMEs; interaction between ICMEs and the heliosphere plasma/current sheet (HPS/HCS); and corotating interaction regions (CIRs). We will present simulation results while ICMEs were occurring during the period for both solar minimum and maximum. For solar minimum, we will present an event which occurred in May 12, 1997. For solar maximum, we will present several major events during the famous epoch of Halloween 2003. The results of both May 1997 and Halloween 2003 events show the deformation of ICMEs while they were interacting with HPS/HCS and CIRs as well as the effect of background solar speed on the ICME's arrival time at 1 AU. In addition, the result of Halloween 2003 also shows the compound case of ICMEs' overtaking one another.

SA53A-1356

The Relationship Between Space Weather and Satellite Anomalies

* Welling, D T (dwelling@umich.edu) , University of Michigan Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Space Research Building 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, United States
Glocer, A (aglocer@umich.edu) , University of Michigan Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Space Research Building 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, United States
Bell, J M (jmbell@umich.edu) , University of Michigan Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Space Research Building 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2143, United States

Every year, satellite operations are hampered by hardware and software anomalies. These events range from minor software glitches to major electrostatic discharges that cripple and destroy satellites, costing operators hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost equipment and revenue. Space weather is a known contributor to spacecraft anomalies, but it remains unknown whether it is a major or minor cause of problems. In this study, we use an NCAR anomaly database along with the Kp index, Dst index, and GOES particle flux data to quantify the impact of space weather on satellite operations.

SA53A-1357

Surface Charging Application Tests for Geosynchronous Spacecraft

* Hilmer, R V (Robert.Hilmer@Hanscom.af.mil) , Air Force Research Laboratory/Space Vehicles Directorate, 29 Randolph Rd, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731
Cooke, D L ( ) , Air Force Research Laboratory/Space Vehicles Directorate, 29 Randolph Rd, Hanscom AFB, MA 01731
Tautz, M ( ) , AER, Inc., 131 Hartwell Ave, Lexington, MA 02421
Davis, V A ( ) , SAIC, 10260 Campus Point Drive, San Diego, CA 92121
Mandell, M J ( ) , SAIC, 10260 Campus Point Drive, San Diego, CA 92121
Kuharski, R A ( ) , SAIC, 10260 Campus Point Drive, San Diego, CA 92121

The testing of a geosynchronous spacecraft surface charging application that combines the charged particle environment (~ 1 eV to 200 keV electron and proton fluxes) of the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) with algorithms from the NASCAP-2K surface charging program is described. Spacecraft frame charging (chassis potential) is determined from low energy ion data collected by the Charge Control System (CCS) on a DSCS III B- 7 spacecraft at 307$^{circ}$ E. Longitude. Several simple descriptions of satellite geometry and materials are employed, including one which approximates features of the DSCS satellite [i.e., Mandell and Cooke, AIAA-2004- 986, 42nd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Reno, Nevada, Jan. 5-8, 2004]. Preliminary tests compared modeled and observed chassis potentials for three days when observed peak charging levels ranged from -200 to -600 volts [Hilmer et al. (2005), EOS Trans. AGU, 86(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract SM41A-1169]. While the electron and proton spectra generated by the MSM proved to be suitable for the charging calculation, the MSM does not produce all of the low energy electrons ( < 20 eV) usually present in geosynchronous orbit to keep spacecraft from charging positive so only negative charging is assumed. Frame charging details vary greatly with MSM input parameter selection. The charging application works best with MSM spectra generated using the input parameter set that statistically produces the best electron fluxes in the midnight-dawn local time sector where surface charging is most often observed. Comparisons in the present study will concentrate on utilizing MSM particle fluxes generated using this ``best set'' of the input parameters and testing will cover an extended period of up to several months. These tests will help us refine the MSM and NASCAP-2K algorithm configurations needed to best address spacecraft surface charging.

SA53A-1358

First-principles modeling of geomagnetically induced currents from the upstream solar wind to the surface of the Earth

* Pulkkinen, A (antti.pulkkinen@gsfc.nasa.gov) , NASA/GSFC, Code 612.2, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Hesse, M (michael.hesse@nasa.gov) , NASA/GSFc, Code 612.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Kuznetsova, M (maria.M.Kuznetsova@nasa.gov) , NASA/GSFc, Code 612.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Rastaetter, L (lutz.Rastaetter.1@gsfc.nasa.gov) , NASA/GSFc, Code 612.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States

Our capability to model near-space plasma physical phenomena has reached a level that enables first-principles (in contrast to empirical) modeling of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) based on information obtained from the upstream solar wind. As GIC pose a real threat to the normal operation of long conductor systems on the ground (like power transmission systems), it is clear that success in accurate modeling of GIC would open an entirely new window for operational space weather products. Namely, present statistical estimates and nowcasting capabilities would be supplemented with real forecasting ability. Space physics models hosted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) supplemented with models for geomagnetic induction process and GIC provide an ideal platform for the first attempts of first- principles modeling of GIC. Here we use global magnetospheric MHD models at CCMC to model the geomagnetically active period of Oct 24-29, 2003. The ionospheric output of the global MHD is coupled to geomagnetic induction and GIC models to obtain GIC in various geographical locations. Then, the actual measured and modeled GIC time series are compared to evaluate the performance of the model chain.

SA53A-1359

Energetic Proton Maps for the South Atlantic Anomaly

* Ginet, G P (gregory.ginet@hanscom.af.mil) , Space Vechicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, AFRL/VSBX, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01731
Thompson, T (timothy.thompson@hanscom.af.mil) , Space Vechicles Directorate, Air Force Research Laboratory, AFRL/VSBX, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01731
Madden, D (daniel.madden@hanscom.af.mil) , Institute of Scientific Research, Boston College, St. Clement's Hall, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467
Easley, S M (shaun.easley@afit.edu) , Air Force Institute of Technology, Bldg 640, 2950 Hobson Way, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433

Despite efforts to design space systems to survive the space radiation environment, modern spacecraft can still experience high rates of anomalies due to single event effects (SEEs) arising from cosmic rays and high-energy radiation belt protons. SEEs may range from nuisance effects requiring operator intervention to debilitating effects which lead to functional or total spacecraft loss. In many cases SEEs create high background counts which sensors unusable during passage through the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). Operators who control affected space vehicles need to know how best to minimize the risk of anomalies which in many cases simply means knowing, with a high degree of accuracy, when and where to turn systems on and off. Until recently the most readily accessible and useable means to do this was by using proton intensity maps derived from the NASA AP-8 radiation belt climatology model. However, it is well known both from the data and geomagnetic theory that as a result of the variations in the Earth's internal magnetic field the location of the energetic proton belts has changed significantly since the model was made in 1970. The predominantly westward drift of the SAA is approximately 0.3 degrees/year and can lead to large inaccuracies in the prediction of dose rates for LEO satellites if models are not updated. An improved set of maps were constructed in 1998 from data taken by the Air Force's APEX and CRRES satellites during the epoch 1990-1996. We present here a new set of maps for the epoch 2000-2006 based on data from the Compact Environment Anomaly Sensor (CEASE) onboard the Tri- Service Experiment-5 (TSX-5) satellite in a 400 km x 1600 km, 69 degree inclination orbit. Maps for > 10 Mev, > 25 MeV, > 40 MeV and > 70 MeV protons will be shown and compared to those for earlier epochs. Estimates of the energy spectra as a function of altitude from 400km to 1650 km, an interval spanning the range where the controlling factor in the dynamics changes from the neutral density to the global magnetic field, will also be given.

SA53A-1360

Space Weather Prediction Using a Hybrid Physics/Black-box Model

* Spencer, E A (espencer@engineering.usu.edu) , Center for Space Engineering, Utah State University, 4170 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, United States
Kaveri, S (srinidhi@cc.usu.edu) , Center for Space Engineering, Utah State University, 4170 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, United States
Horton, W (horton@physics.utexas.edu) , Institute for Fusion Studies, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1500 RLM 11.222, Austin, TX 78712, United States
Mays, L (lmays@physics.utexas.edu) , Institute for Fusion Studies, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1500 RLM 11.222, Austin, TX 78712, United States

A hybrid physics/black-box approach is used to model the nightside magnetosphere. The physics based model is a state-space description of the global energy components of the system called WINDMI. A nonlinear system identification technique using multi-resolution wavelet decomposition is developed that incorporates the physics model as part of a larger hybrid model. The input to the hybrid model is the solar wind velocity, Interplanetary Magnetic Field, and the proton density measured by the Advance Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. The output of the combined model is the westward auroral index $AL$, and the equatorial storm time index $Dst$. The performance of the hybrid model is evaluated using historical geomagnetic storm datasets.

SA53A-1361

AL and Dst Predictions with the Real-Time WINDMI Model

* Mays, L (lmays@physics.utexas.edu) , Institute for Fusion Studies, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1600, Austin, TX 78712, United States
Horton, W (horton@physics.utexas.edu) , Institute for Fusion Studies, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1600, Austin, TX 78712, United States
Spencer, E (espencer@engineering.usu.edu) , Center for Space Engineering, Utah State University, 2140 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322, United States
Weigel, R (rweigel@gmu.edu) , George Mason University, Research I Bldg., Room 350 4400 University Drive, MS 6A2, Fairfax, VA 22030, United States
Vassiliadis, D (vassili@pop600.gsfc.nasa.gov) , ST at NASA/GSFC, Bldg 21, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Kozyra, J (jukozyra@umich.edu) , Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, 2455 Hayward St., Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States

First results are presented of the space weather forecasting capability of the real-time WINDMI model that has been operating since February 2006 as a physics based AL and Dst prediction tool. The well documented WINDMI model is a network of eight coupled ordinary differential equations which describe the transfer of power from the solar wind through the geomagnetic tail, the ionosphere, and ring current in the solar WIND driven Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system. WINDMI includes ring current energization physics from substrom injections and outputs a predicted westward auroral electojet index (AL) and equatorial geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (Dst). At the time of abstract submission (August 2006) real-time WINDMI has captured two storms with the first alarm being sent by email for a moderate -150 nT storm on 14-15 April 2006 and a second -100 nT storm on 19-20 August 2006. During the August 2006 storm period the WINDMI model was a more consistent Dst predictor than the Kyoto WDC Quicklook Dst data which has an incorrect offset of ~-100 nT. Real-time WINDMI uses real-time solar wind data from received from ACE every ten minutes to derive in less than one minute of computational time a predicted AL and Dst and magnetopause standoff distance. Real-time WINDMI predicts the AL index one hour earlier than the data is available from the Kyoto WDC Quicklook website and the Dst index two hours earlier. Every ten minutes real-time AL and Dst data and WINDMI predictions are shown on this website: http://orion.ph.utexas.edu/~windmi/realtime/. The 18 physical parameters of WINDMI are approximated analytically from planetary parameters and optimized within physically allowable ranges using the genetic algorithm. Real-time WINDMI parameters are optimized every hour based on 8 hours of past model/data comparison. In addition to the geomagnetic indices the model predicts the major energy components and power transfers in the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The work is supported by NSF-ATM grant 0539099.

http://orion.ph.utexas.edu/~windmi/realtime/

SA53A-1362

International Reference Ionosphere: An operational tool for space weather applications

* Bilitza, D (dieter.bilitza.1@gsfc.nasa.gov) , Raytheon, GSFC, Code 612.4, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States
Reinisch, B W (Bodo_Reinisch@uml.edu) , Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Massachusetts Lowell, 600 Suffolk Street, Lowell, MA 01854, United States

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, developed as a joint project of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International union of Radio Science (URSI), is a widely used standard for ionospheric parameters, and is currently undergoing registration with the International Standardization Organization (ISO) as a technical specification. IRI is an empirical model representing a synthesis of the available and reliable ground and space data recorded for the ionosphere. Being an international project, the IRI model has been validated with a large volume of ionospheric data by researchers and data from all parts of the world. We will describe the latest version of the model and the most important recent improvements and new features. In addition we will also briefly discuss modeling efforts that are now underway with the goal of future IRI updates. A special focus of this presentation will be the many space weather related applications of the IRI model highlighting some of the user feedback.

http://modelweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/ionos/iri.html

SA53A-1363

Validation of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model

* Decker, D T (dwight.decker@hanscom.af.mil) , Air Force Research Laboratory, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01730-3010, United States
Bishop, G (Gregory.Bishop@hanscom.af.mil) , Air Force Research Laboratory, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01730-3010, United States
Welsh, J (Judith.Welsh@hanscom.af.mil) , Air Force Research Laboratory, 29 Randolph Rd., Hanscom AFB, MA 01730-3010, United States
McNamara, L (Leo.McNamara@hanscom.af.mil) , Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167-3862, United States
Gentile, L (Louise.Gentile@hanscom.af.mil) , Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167-3862, United States
Doherty, P (Patricia.doherty@bc.edu) , Institute for Scientific Research, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167-3862, United States

The Utah State University (USU) Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model version 2.3 uses the Ionosphere Forecast Model (IFM), a physics-based model, and a Kalman filter using Gauss-Markov relaxation as a basis for assimilating a set of real-time measurements to produce a specification and forecast of the ionosphere. This model is currently being transitioned at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) for operational use. As part of that process, the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) has been performing a validation of GAIM. The primary focus of the work has been to determine if an operational GAIM will perform better than the current operational ionospheric model (the Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model, PRISM). In this presentation, we will discuss our results that illustrate that GAIM is generally superior to both climatology (IFM) and PRISM. We will also discuss data preprocessing, the robustness of GAIM, and some of the validation questions that remain unanswered.

SA53A-1364

Development of single and multi-parameter global auroral models

* Zhang, Y (yongliang.zhang@jhuapl.edu) , Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Paxton, L (larry.paxton@jhuapl.edu) , Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Morrison, D (danny.morrison@jhuapl.edu) , Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States

Accurate specification of global auroral distributions of electron energy flux and mean energy under different solar wind and magnetic activity conditions is very important for space weather studies and global ionosphere/thermosphere simulations. The large database of global FUV auroral data from TIMED/GUVI allow us to develop statistically significant global auroral models depending on either single or multiple parameter fits, such as to Kp, Dst, AE indices and drivers in the solar wind (IMF Bz, solar wind electric field). A function fitting technique is used in the model development. While a single parameter can give a general description of auroral activity, capturing the dependence or sensitivity to a set of parameters is expected to provide more accurate information on the auroral activity. We will discuss whether the multi-parameter model improves the single- parameter models.

SA53A-1365

SPECTRE : Ionospheric tools and products over dense GPS network

* GODET, P (godet@ipgp.jussieu.fr) , Etudes Spatiales et Planetologie, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,, 4 ave de Neptune,, Saint Maur des Foss�, 94107 France
GARCIA, R (garcia@dtp.obs-mip.fr) , Etudes Spatiales et Planetologie, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,, 4 ave de Neptune,, Saint Maur des Foss�, 94107 France
CRESPON, F (crepson@ipgp.jussieu.fr) , Etudes Spatiales et Planetologie, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,, 4 ave de Neptune,, Saint Maur des Foss�, 94107 France
CRESPON, F (crepson@ipgp.jussieu.fr) , Noveltis, Parc Technologique du canal, 2 ave de l'Europe, Ramonville Saint-Agn, 31250 France
JEANSOU, E (eric.jeansou@noveltis.fr) , Noveltis, Parc Technologique du canal, 2 ave de l'Europe, Ramonville Saint-Agn, 31250 France
HELBERT, J (jerome.helbert@noveltis.fr) , Noveltis, Parc Technologique du canal, 2 ave de l'Europe, Ramonville Saint-Agn, 31250 France
MOREAUX, G (guilhem.moreaux@noveltis.fr) , Noveltis, Parc Technologique du canal, 2 ave de l'Europe, Ramonville Saint-Agn, 31250 France
LOGNONNE, P (lognonne@ipgp.jussieu.fr) , Etudes Spatiales et Planetologie, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris,, 4 ave de Neptune,, Saint Maur des Foss�, 94107 France

SPECTRE (Service and Products for ionospheric Electron Content over Europe) is a result of a 4 years joint effort of IPGP research institution and Noveltis Company. Database Technologies have been developped for providing final ionospheric products and data extraction tools from a dense GPS network. This operationnal service is freely available to the scientific community through the web site : (http://ganymede.ipgp.jussieu.fr/spectre/). The SPECTRE data products are used for many applications for the scientific community with a special focus on spaceweather and transient ionospheric perturbations related to Earthquakes. Some scientific applications taking advantage of the high time resolution of SPECTRE products are described. Quick extraction tools of the vertical TEC values permited the evaluation of the 2D ionospheric products database by comparison with JPL and CODE products, and permits further correlation with satellite measurements like DEMETER, TOPEX, JASON, Oersted, CHAMP, SAC-C...The extension of the service above other dense GPS networks in active seismic regions (mainly Japan and California) has been experimented, and the related difficulties are presented.

http://ganymede.ipgp.jussieu.fr/spectre/

SA53A-1366

Passive Global, Real-Time TEC Monitoring Using GPS-based Radio Receivers

* Suszcynsky, D M (dsuszcynsky@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space & Remote Sensing Group, ISR-2 MS D436, Los Alamos, NM 87506
Pongratz, M (mpongratz@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space & Remote Sensing Group, ISR-2 MS D436, Los Alamos, NM 87506
Cox, L (larrycox@lanl.gov) , Los Alamos National Laboratory, Space & Remote Sensing Group, ISR-2 MS D436, Los Alamos, NM 87506

Over the last several years, we have used the low-earth orbiting Fast On Orbit Recording of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite and a growing array of radio receivers aboard the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation to demonstrate a technique for making passive, global, satellite-based measurements of the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). The technique uses very high frequency (VHF) radio emissions from lightning events to quantify the line-of-sight TEC between the lightning event and satellite. As the VHF lightning signal propagates to the satellite, the dispersive effects of the ionosphere cause the higher frequency components of the signal to arrive at the satellite before the lower frequency components. By noting the time-of- arrival at several frequencies, we can derive the TEC between the lightning event and each satellite sensor that detects the lightning. Using multi-satellite techniques we can geolocate the lightning and the ionospheric penetration point of the lightning-satellite line-of-sight quite accurately. The resulting data product is a spatially and temporally irregular, but global and near real-time mapping of TEC. This paper will evaluate the expected operational performance of such a system, describe some applications (e.g. global TEC monitoring and tomography), and will also describe a framework for operationalizing this growing capability aboard GPS in next five years.

SA53A-1367

TIMED/GUVI and DMSP/SSUSI - Data Products for Space Weather

* Hsieh, S (Syau-Yun.Hsieh@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Paxton, L (Larry.Paxton@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Zhang, Y (Yongliang.Zhang@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
DeMajistre, R (Robert.DeMajistre@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Wolven, B (Brian.Wolven@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Morrison, D (Danny.Morrison@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Schaefer, R (Robert.Schaefer@jhuapl.edu) , The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States

A wide variety of data products are produced from both TIMED/GUVI and DMSP/SSUSI. These data products are available for operational use for many space weather applications. These products present a unique opportunity for users to assess the impacts from various drivers on the ITM region and the atmospheric response to these impacts from solar maximum to solar minimum. The GUVI and SSUSI data pool contains both the remote- sensing measurements and the derived environmental parameters. In addition to the spectrograph and imagery data, the GUVI and SSUSI data product suite consists of aurora data products, thermospheric ratio of O and N2, electron density profiles and neutral density profiles. The rich collection of these data products greatly extends our capacity to understand the complex interactions and exchanges in the upper atmosphere especially during solar and geomagnetic disturbances. It provides an excellent tool for space weather operations and investigations. We will present both the GUVI and SSUSI data products, and illustrate their parameters in detail. We will further discuss their operational use in space weather applications, the current development, improvements, and the future development of new products.

SA53A-1368

Comparison of Conductances derived from IDA3D and TIMEGCM with GUVI

Reynolds, A S (areynolds@astraspace.net) , Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates, 11118 Quail Pass, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States
* Crowley, G W (gcrowley@astraspace.net) , Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates, 11118 Quail Pass, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States
Bust, G S (gbust@astraspace.net) , Atmospheric & Space Technology Research Associates, 11118 Quail Pass, San Antonio, TX 78249, United States
Paxton, L (larry.paxton@jhuapl.edu) , John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 John Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723, United States
Christensen, A (andrew.b.christensen@aero.org) , Aerospace Corporation, 11100 John Hopkins Road P.O. Box 92957, Los Angeles, CA 9009, United States
Secan, J (jim@nwra.com) , NorthWest Research Associates, P.O. Box 3027, Bellvue, WA 98009, United States
Smith, R (roger.smith@gi.alaska.edu) , University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AL 99775, United States

The Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) instrument on the TIMED satellite measures various auroral parameters including the energy and flux distributions, which can then be used to estimate auroral conductances. In this paper, we compare GUVI conductances with those obtained from an ionospheric data assimilation imaging algorithm. The comparison is focused on the Alaska region, where five tomographic receivers collected data during the November 6 � 14, 2004 study period, which contained both quiet days and a large magnetic storm. The receivers were arrayed across Central Alaska from ~ 60 � 70 degrees of latitude. The Ionospheric Data Assimilation Three-Dimensional (IDA3D) tomographic imaging algorithm was run for this period using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIMEGCM) as a background model, driven by convection and precipitation patterns obtained from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure. In addition to the Alaska tomography data, IDA3D also ingested ground-based GPS data, low earth orbiting (LEO) satellite GPS occultation data and over-satellite electron content data, in-situ measurements of electron density from DMSP and CHAMP, incoherent scatter radar data and ionosonde data. IDA3D was run twice for the study period, with 5 minute cadence. The first run ingested all the data except the Alaska tomography data. The second run used all the data, including the Alaska tomography data. The study shows the value of the tomography data, and the kind of detailed ionospheric structure that can be obtained from IDA3D, which is particularly useful in complex highly structured situations.

SA53A-1369

Ionospheric Model Assessment Using the Arecibo Ionosphere Database

* Eccles, J V (vince.eccles@spacenv.com) , Space Environment Corporation, 221 N. Spring Creek Parkway, Suite A, Providence, UT 84332-9791, United States
Vo, H B (hvo@naic.edu) , Arecibo Observatory, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612 Puerto Rico
Gonzalez, S A (sixto@naic.edu) , Arecibo Observatory, HC3 Box 53995, Arecibo, PR 00612 Puerto Rico
Fuller-Rowell, T J (tim.fuller-rowell@noaa.gov) , NOAA/SEC, 325 Broadway, Boulder, UT 80305, United States

The electron density specification of the ionosphere is the key parameter supporting many operational products. To assess the accuracy of tools based on space weather models of the ionosphere one must know the accuracy of the underlining models. The Arecibo Radar Observatory (ARO) provides an Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) database with extensive observations of ionospheric parameters over a broad range of solar cycle, season, local time, and geomagnetic activity. We have carefully examined these ionosphere profile data to apply thoughtful uncertainties related to the ARO measurement, analysis, and ionospheric representation for the background ionosphere. The Arecibo electron density profile database is used to assess the performance of ionospheric models. Three models are assessed: (1) International Reference Ionosphere (IRI), (2) Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM), and (3) Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere-Electrodynamics Model CTIPe. The database, metrics, and reporting package developed to assess ionospheric models is being transferred to the CCMC for public use. Acknowledgment: We wish to acknowledge the support of NSF National Space Weather Program under contract ATM0317777.

SA53A-1370

Location of Ionospheric F-region Troughs Using a 3D Polar Model, and Validation Using Tomography Data

* Watkins, B (ualaska-watkins@usa.net) , University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute and Physics Dept., 903 Koyukuk Dr. PO Box 757320, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320, United States
Kulchitsky, A (anton@kulchitsky.org) , University of Alaska Fairbanks, Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, PO Box 756020, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6020, United States
Maurits, S (maurits@arsc.edu) , University of Alaska Fairbanks, Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, PO Box 756020, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6020, United States
Wright, J (wright_j2@acadmn.mercer.edu) , Mercer University, 1400 Coleman Ave, Macon, GA 31207-0001, United States
Secan, J (jim@nwra.com) , North West Research Assoc, Inc, 2455 E. Speedway, Suite 204, Tucson, AZ 85719, United States

A 3D polar ionosphere model has been used with a variety of geographical conditions to determine the extent and location of F-region density troughs in the night-time auroral ionosphere. The results have been validated with tomography data obtained in the Alaskan region. Although the model uses statistical inputs, for quiet to moderately disturbed conditions, the trough locations are generally predicted by the model to be within 2 degrees of latitude compared to tomographic data.

SA53A-1371

Sources, Propagators, and Sinks of Space Weather

* Pesnell, W D (pesnell@gsfc.nasa.gov) , NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 612.1, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States

Space Weather is a complex web of sources, propagators, and sinks of energy, mass, and momentum. A complete understanding of Space Weather requires specifying, and an ability to predict, each link in this web. One important problem in Space Weather is ranking the importance of a particular measurement or model in a research program. One way to do this ranking is to examine the simplest linked diagram of the sources, propagators, and sinks and produce. By analyzing only those components that contribute to a particular area the individual contributions can be better appreciated. Several such diagrams will be shown and used to discuss how long-term effects of Space Weather can be separated from the impulsive effects.