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| H14: | Verification of Hydrologic, Hydrometeorological, and Hydroclimatological Forecasts |
| Sponsor: |
Hydrology
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| CoSponsor: |
Atmospheric Sciences |
| Convener: |
Julie Demargne NOAA/NWS/OHD/Hydrology Laboratory & UCAR 1325 East-West Highway Silver Spring, MD, USA 301-713-0640 ext. 162 Julie.Demargne@noaa.gov Allen Bradley University of Iowa & IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering Iowa City, IA, USA allen-bradley@uiowa.edu Kristie Franz Iowa State University, Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Ames, IA, USA kfranz@iastate.edu Barbara Brown National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, USA bgb@ucar.edu |
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0550 1880 1840 1833 1873 .
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| Description: |
This special session seeks contributions from the research, operational and user communities on recent advances in science and practice of forecast verification for hydrologic, hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological forecasts for both single-valued and probabilistic forecasts given at forecast points or grids. It will include methods and studies for post-event verification, diagnostic verification, and real-time (prognostic) verification for weather, climate, and water forecasts across a range of space and time scales. Such forecast verification will help quantify the marginal value of improvement in newly developed hydrometeorological, hydroclimatological and hydrologic observations and forecasting techniques for hydrology and water resources applications. It will also help advance our understanding of the hydrologic forecasting process based on rigorous forecast verification, and maximize the utility of water forecasts for diverse users. The specific areas of contributions sought are (but not limited to): new verification metrics for single-valued and probabilistic forecasts, reference forecasts for skill scores, verification of forecast services efficiency and forecast usability, evaluation of amplitude vs. phase errors, spatial verification methods, verification of real-time forecasts, verification of extreme or rare events, sampling uncertainty (including confidence intervals and hypothesis testing), observational uncertainty, analysis of sources of uncertainty, integration of hydrologic verification information in risk-based decision system. |
Union Sessions by Theme
There are no extra requirements to submit to these sessions.
1. Carbon in the Earth System
U01: Origin of Late Holocene (Pre-Industrial) Increases in Atmospheric CO2 and CH4U04: Understanding of the Global Carbon Cycle Using Models and ObservationsU15: Global Climate Change and Gas Hydrate Reservoir Degassing: Assessing the Scientific EvidenceU22: Geologic Carbon Sequestration: The Vital Links Between Risk Assessment, Monitoring and Mitigation Design
2. Earth's Polar Regions
U02: The International Polar YearU23: Observing, Understanding, Predicting and Responding to Pan-Arctic Ice Retreat Problems
3. Climate & the Environment
U06: Geoengineering to Counteract Global Warming?U10: Tropical Cyclone—Climate Interactions Past, Present, and FutureU11: Comparative Climate Studies of Earth, Venus and MarsU12: Consequences of Peak Oil for Climate ChangeU14: Environmental Consequences of the Changing Global Food SystemU24: Perspectives on the Past and Future of Paleoceanography and Paleclimatology
4. Earth's Dynamic Interior
U09: Different Views on One AsthenosphereU18: Interaction and Co-evolution of Earth Reservoirs: Coupling of Mantle, Tectonic, Atmospheric, and Hydrospheric Dynamics in the Evolution of EarthU20: Fluids at Convergent Margins: Synthesis of Observations, Experiments and ModelsU21: Geologic, Seismologic, and Geodynamic Constraints on the 4–D Evolution of North America: Where are we now and Where are we going?
5. New Frontiers
U03: MESSENGER at Mercury: The Second FlybyU05: Episodic Tremor and Slip: Insights into a Newly Discovered ProcessU08: The Library — Data Center Alliance in Earth and Space SciencesU13: The Phoenix MissionU16: The Van Allen Radiation Belts and Their Impact on Modern Space Science
6. Hazards and Public Risk
U07: Role of Science in Water, Biologic, and Geologic Hazards SecurityU17: Decision Support Needs and Tools for Global Change: Bridging the Gap Between Physical and Societal ModelsU19: The Great 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake: A Multi-disciplinary ViewU25: Integrated Geohazards Along Continental Margins and Plate Boundary Zones