GC33B-0764
Using Immersive Visualizations to Improve Decision Making and Enhancing Public Understanding of Earth Resource and Climate Issues
New visualization technologies, from ArcGIS to Google Earth, have allowed for the integration of complex, disparate data sets to produce visually rich and compelling three-dimensional models of sub-surface and surface resource distribution patterns. The rendering of these models allows the public to quickly understand complicated geospatial relationships that would otherwise take much longer to explain using traditional media. We have impacted the community through topical policy presentations at both state and city levels, adult education classes at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science (DMNS), and public lectures at DMNS. We have constructed three-dimensional models from well data and surface observations which allow policy makers to better understand the distribution of groundwater in sandstone aquifers of the Denver Basin. Our presentations to local governments in the Denver metro area have allowed resource managers to better project future ground water depletion patterns, and to encourage development of alternative sources. DMNS adult education classes on water resources, geography, and regional geology, as well as public lectures on global issues such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and resource depletion, have utilized the visualizations developed from these research models. In addition to presenting GIS models in traditional lectures, we have also made use of the immersive display capabilities of the digital "fulldome" Gates Planetarium at DMNS. The real-time Uniview visualization application installed at Gates was designed for teaching astronomy, but it can be re-purposed for displaying our model datasets in the context of the Earth's surface. The 17-meter diameter dome of the Gates Planetarium allows an audience to have an immersive experience---similar to virtual reality CAVEs employed by the oil exploration industry---that would otherwise not be available to the general public. Public lectures in the dome allow audiences of over 100 people to comprehend dynamically- changing geospatial datasets in an exciting and engaging fashion. In our presentation, we will demonstrate how new software tools like Uniview can be used to dramatically enhance and accelerate public comprehension of complex, multi-scale geospatial phenomena.
GC33B-0765
Portal Tools for Targeting Climate Information Users: The NIDIS Experience
Translation of scientific information for targeted user groups is a critical challenge facing the development of
any comprehensive climate services framework. This talk explores the lessons learned from the development
of a National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) portal (drought.gov) to this end. The NIDIS
portal focuses on communities of shared user interest, distinct tabular and map-based data accessibility
pathways, and the judicious use of database crawlers to incorporate new and emerging data and information.
These foci are informing the development of a climate services portal within NOAA scheduled for initial
release in 2009.
http://www.drought.gov
GC33B-0766
ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis
Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.
GC33B-0767
NASA Remote Sensing Observations for Water Resource and Infrastructure Management
Decision support tools employed by water resource and infrastructure managers often utilize data products obtained from local sources or national/regional databases of historic surveys and observations. Incorporation of data from these sources can be laborious and time consuming as new products must be identified, cleaned and archived for each new study site. Adding remote sensing observations to the list of sources holds promise for a timely, consistent, global product to aid decision support at regional and global scales by providing global observations of geophysical parameters including soil moisture, precipitation, atmospheric temperature, derived evapotranspiration, and snow extent needed for hydrologic models and decision support tools. However, issues such as spatial and temporal resolution arise when attempting to integrate remote sensing observations into existing decision support tools. We are working to overcome these and other challenges through partnerships with water resource managers, tool developers and other stakeholders. We are developing a new data processing framework, enabled by a core GIS server, to seamlessly pull together observations from disparate sources for synthesis into information products and visualizations useful to the water resources community. A case study approach is being taken to develop the system by working closely with water infrastructure and resource managers to integrate remote observations into infrastructure, hydrologic and water resource decision tools. We present the results of a case study utilizing observations from the PALS aircraft instrument as a proxy for NASA's upcoming Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission and an existing commercial decision support tool.
GC33B-0768
On the use of Empirical Data to Downscale Non-scientific Scepticism About Results From Complex Physical Based Models
The scepticism of non-scientific local stakeholders about results from complex physical based models is a major problem concerning the development and implementation of local climate change adaptation measures. This scepticism originates from the high complexity of such models. Local stakeholders perceive complex models as black-box models, as it is impossible to gasp all underlying assumptions and mathematically formulated processes at a glance. The use of physical based models is, however, indispensible to study complex underlying processes and to predict future environmental changes. The increase of climate change adaptation efforts following the release of the latest IPCC report indicates that the communication of facts about what has already changed is an appropriate tool to trigger climate change adaptation. Therefore we suggest increasing the practice of empirical data analysis in addition to modelling efforts. The analysis of time series can generate results that are easier to comprehend for non-scientific stakeholders. Temporal trends and seasonal patterns of selected hydrological parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels and river discharge) can be identified and the dependence of trends and seasonal patters to land use, topography and soil type can be highlighted. A discussion about lag times between the hydrological parameters can increase the awareness of local stakeholders for delayed environment responses.
GC33B-0769
Applying Dust-on-Snow Research to Colorado Water Management
Snowmelt runoff from seasonal snowpacks in Western mountains provides a high proportion of regional water supplies and represents a critical resource subject to complex management imperatives at all levels of local, state, and federal government. Recent research performed in the San Juan Mountains of Southwest Colorado has revealed that deposition of desert dust from the Colorado Plateau onto Colorado mountain snowpacks is playing a hitherto underestimated forcing role in snowmelt timing and intensity. In spring 2006, embedded dust layers forced a 4-5 week advance in complete snowpack ablation at the Senator Beck Basin Study Area, near Red Mountain Pass, and professional water managers throughout Colorado were surprised by an early and compressed snowmelt runoff. Presentations of our preliminary findings during the summer of 2006 at local water district meetings and at a statewide forum resonated with Colorado water managers and resulted in direct stakeholder engagement in the ongoing research program during the subsequent winter. In spring 2007 the research team issued periodic Dust Alerts describing dust-on-snow conditions extant within the study area, as well as anecdotal reports of conditions elsewhere in the state, and discussed the snowmelt ramifications of those dust conditions in the coming 7-15 days, given mid-range NWS weather forecasts. Another round of presentations at district and state-wide stakeholder meetings in summer 2007 resulted in additional districts and agencies engaging in the program and expanding the dust-on-snow monitoring and Dust Alert analysis efforts in spring 2008 to additional sites distributed throughout the state. The original research project is ongoing and the team is now developing a Colorado Dust-on-Snow Program, CODOS, designed to serve all stakeholders in Colorado snowmelt with increasingly intensive monitoring and analysis of snowmelt forcing by dust, and with ongoing research regarding dust-driven mountain snowmelt processes. In this instance, basic science preceded stakeholder engagement and, through active outreach, a consequential, stakeholder-supported program implementing operational application of the research is emerging.
GC33B-0770
Paleohydrology Workshops for Water Resource Managers Using an Iterative Evaluation Process
Workshops can be an effective avenue for the exchange of information and ideas between scientists and
decision-makers. The interactive aspects of workshops promote more active participation and interactions
between the two groups. In 2006, at the suggestion of water resource managers, we began presenting a
series of small workshops (10-25 participants) on the use and application of tree-ring data in water resource
management. The one-day workshops cover the basic science behind tree-ring reconstructions of
hydrology, resources available, and applications of the data to resource management, with presentations by
both tree-ring scientists and water resource professionals. They also include plenty of time for informal
discussion. We have now held ten workshops across the western U.S., and several more are planned. We
use pre-workshop surveys to tailor the workshop to the needs of the participants, and we assess the
workshop's effectiveness through participant evaluations completed at the end of the
workshop. We also receive post-workshop feedback in the form of follow-up emails or via word of mouth.
This iterative process of evaluation, with each workshop, has enabled us to fine-tune the format and content
of the workshops and respond to additional needs such as data, web resources, online tools for using
paleodata, as well as follow-up workshops. This approach has resulted in an improvement in the credibility,
acceptance, and use of tree-ring data in water resource applications, as evidenced by an independent
survey of workshop participants. Although the focus of these workshops has been on paleohydrologic data,
this approach would be applicable to other climate-stakeholder issues as well.
http://wwa.colorado.edu/treeflow/workshops.html
GC33B-0771
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Science for Decision-Making: Water Managers and Tree- Ring Data in the Western United States
Current climate variability, potential impacts of climate change, and limited resources in the face of growing demand are increasingly prompting water managers in the western United States to consider and use data from climate-related research in water resource planning. Much of these data are produced by stakeholder- driven science programs, such as NOAA's Regional Integrated Science Assessments (RISAs), but there have been few efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of these science-to-application efforts. Over the past several years, researchers with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) RISA have been providing tree-ring reconstructions of streamflow to water managers in Colorado and other western states, and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of these tree-ring data for water management and planning. Using in-depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we have assessed the effectiveness and outcomes of these engagements, addressing (1) the factors that have prompted water managers to seek out tree-ring data, (2) how paleoclimate data has been made relevant and accessible for water resource planning, and (3) how tree-ring data and information have been utilized by water managers and other workshop participants. We also provide an assessment of challenges and opportunities that exist in the translation of climate science for decision-making, including how tree-ring data are interpreted in the context of water planning paradigms, issues of credibility and acceptance of tree ring data, and what data needs exist in different planning environments. These findings have broader application in improving and evaluating science-policy interactions related to climate and climate change.
GC33B-0772
Experiences in Bridging the Gap Between Science and Decision Making at NASAs GSFC Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)
In recognizing the significance of NASA remote sensing Earth science data in monitoring and better
understanding our planet's natural environment, NASA has implemented the 'Decision Support Through
Earth Science Research Results' program to solicit "proposals that develop and demonstrate innovative and
practicable applications of NASA Earth science observations and research…that focus on improving decision
making activities", as stated in the NASA ROSES-2008, A.18 solicitation. This very successful program has
yielded several monitoring, surveillance, and decision support systems through collaborations with benefiting
organizations in the areas of agriculture, air quality, disaster management, ecosystems, public health, water
resources, and aviation weather. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Earth Sciences Data and
Information Services Center (GES DISC) has participated in this program on two projects (one complete, one
ongoing), and has had opportune ad hoc collaborations gaining much experience in the formulation,
management, development, and implementation of decision support systems utilizing NASA Earth science
data. Coupling this experience with the GES DISC's total understanding and vast experience regarding Earth
science missions and resulting data and information, including data structures, data usability and
interpretation, data interoperability, and information management systems, the GES DISC is in the unique
position to more readily identify challenges that come with bringing science data to decision makers. These
challenges consist of those that can be met within typical science data usage frameworks, as well as those
challenges that arise when utilizing science data for previously unplanned applications, such as decision
support systems. The purpose of this presentation is to share GES DISC decision support system project
experiences in regards to system sustainability, required data quality (versus timeliness), data provider
understanding how decisions are made, which leads to the data receivers willingness to use new types of
information to make decisions, as well as other topics. In addition, defining metrics that 'really' evaluate
success will be exemplified.
http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GC33B-0773
The Role and Responsibility of the Non-Governmental Organization in Bridging Science and Policy
Bridging science and decision usually falls in the domain of scientists and governments, however there are also examples where these efforts have been tackled by the non-governmental communities as well. These organizations frequently have more of an advocacy leaning than occurs in the public sector, but still need to be careful in their handling of the science. This talk will look at two parallel projects focused on the role of non-CO2 climate forcings (largely black carbon and methane) and climate. In the first, a coalition of researchers from Columbia University's Earth Institute, the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) , NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the University of Illinois have investigated the extent to which a focus on reductions of methane and carbonaceous aerosols can play a role in constraining radiative forcing (and temperature). This has been undertaken by 1) developing at a menu of plausible actions that are amenable to mitigation which could be targeted to reduce emissions and 2) modeling the responses to quantify the potential climate and health impacts of reductions. Results will be shared widely with decision-makers in government and elsewhere. In a second project, CATF, Clean Air Policy Center of the Clean Air Cool Planet, NOAA/PMEL, Arctic countries and university researchers are examining the extent to which reductions in methane, black carbon and tropospheric ozone could help slow Arctic warming and melting. This group is collectively examining the scientific understanding and developing mitigation strategies and other programmatic ideas that can be applied by member governments. In both projects, the need to translate the science has been key, with constant need to provide ease in understanding and offer assurance where there is evidence to support action, but, at the same time, being cautious to not overstate the case or compromise accuracy.
GC33B-0774
The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments
Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to
lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts
such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change.
CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on
climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is
needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change.
CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee,
Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that
state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure,
transportation, land use, and resource management.
Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and
planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and
build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors.
Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question:
"How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the
Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and
disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions.
In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development
decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and
emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative will
equip CCAP partners with the knowledge and tools to get started on planning and implementing adaptation
measures. Drawing on the best and brightest state, local and national policy experts, it will recommend a
comprehensive set of actions that will enable the federal government to support local resiliency efforts.
Toward that end, CCAP has identified three core principles for national climate adaptation policy:
1. National climate policy should support state and local adaptation planning and implementation, such as
through use of cap-and-trade allowance auction proceeds;
2. Federal agencies should provide adaptation assistance to state and local governments, including
regional impact assessments, downscaled climate model data, updated flood maps, planning tools, drought
early warning, and implementation guidance; and
3. A national climate service and extension network needs to be established to aid local governments
implementing resilience measures in collaboration with universities, companies and technical experts around
the country.
http://www.ccap.org/index.php?component=programs&id=6
GC33B-0775
Providing Decision-Relevant Information for a State Climate Change Action Plan
Carbon Solutions New England (CSNE), a public-private partnership formed to promote collective action to
achieve a low carbon society, has been working with the Governor appointed New Hampshire Climate
Change Policy Task Force (NHCCTF) to support the development of a state Climate Change Action Plan.
CSNE's role has been to quantify the potential carbon emissions reduction, implementation costs, and cost
savings at three distinct time periods (2012, 2025, 2050) for a range of strategies identified by the Task
Force. These strategies were developed for several sectors (transportation and land use, electricity
generation and use, building energy use, and agriculture, forestry, and waste).
New Hampshire's existing
and projected economic and population growth are well above the regional average, creating additional
challenges for the state to meet regional emission reduction targets. However, by pursuing an ambitious
suite of renewable energy and energy efficiency strategies, New Hampshire may be able to continue growing
while reducing emissions at a rate close to 3% per year up to 2025. This suite includes efficiency
improvements in new and existing buildings, a renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation,
avoiding forested land conversion, fuel economy gains in new vehicles, and a reduction in vehicle miles
traveled. Most (over 80%) of these emission reduction strategies are projected to provide net economic
savings in 2025.
A collaborative and iterative process was developed among the key partners in the project.
The foundation for the project's success included: a diverse analysis team with leadership that was
committed to the project, an open source analysis approach, weekly meetings and frequent communication
among the partners, interim reporting of analysis, and an established and trusting relationship among the
partners, in part due to collaboration on previous projects.
To develop decision-relevant information for the
Task Force, CSNE addressed several challenges, including: allocating the emission reduction and economic
impacts of local- to state-scale mitigation strategies that are in reality integrated on regional and/or national
scales; incorporating changes to the details of the strategies over time; identifying and quantifying key
variables; choosing appropriate levels of detail for over 100 strategies within the limited analysis timeframe;
integrating individual strategies into a coherent whole; and structuring data presentation to maximize
transparency of analysis without confusing or overwhelming decision makers.
GC33B-0776
Lessons learned from post-wildfire monitoring and implications for land management and regional drinking water treatability in Southern Rockies of Alberta
Like many areas of the Rocky Mountains, Alberta's forests on the eastern slopes of the Rockies have been shaped by decades of successful fire suppression. These forests are at high risk to fire and large scale insect infestation, and climate change will continue to increase these risks. These headwaters forests provide the vast majority of usable surface water supplies to large region of the province, and large scale natural disasters can have dramatic effects on water quality and water availability. The population in the region has steadily increased and now this area is the main source water for many Alberta municipalities, including the City of Calgary, which has a population of over one million. In 2003 a fire burned 21,000 ha in the southern foothills area. The government land managers were concerned about the downstream implications of the fire and salvage operations, however there was very limited scientific information to guide the decision making. This led to establishment of the Southern Rockies Watershed Project, which is a partnership between Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, the provincial government department responsible for land management and the University of Alberta. After five years of data collection, the project has produced quantitative information that was not previously available about the effects of fire and management interventions such as salvage logging on headwaters and regional water quality. This information can be used to make decisions on forest operations, fire suppression, and post-fire salvage operations. In the past few years this project has captured the interest of large municipalities and water treatment researchers who are keen to investigate the potential implications of large natural disturbances to large and small drinking water treatment facilities. Examples from this project will be used to highlight the challenges and successes encountered while bridging the gap between science and land management policy.
GC33B-0777
The Joint Front Range Climate Change Vulnerability Study: Closing the Gap between Science and Water Management Decisions
There is increasing concern among metropolitan water providers in Colorado's Front Range about the possible impacts of global and regional climate changes on their future water supply. This is of particular worry given that recent studies indicate global warming may lead to unprecedented drought conditions in the Southwest U.S. (IPCC 2007). The City of Aurora, City of Boulder, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, City of Ft. Collins, and Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, along with additional water agencies including the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the Water Research Foundation (formerly AwwaRF), and the NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment, have come together to participate in a study intended to provide the education, tools, and methodology necessary to examine possible effects of climate change on several common watersheds. The central objective of this project is to assess possible changes in the timing and volume of hydrologic runoff from selected climate change scenarios centered about the years 2040 and 2070. Two hydrologic models will be calibrated and implemented in the study for this purpose. The future temperature and precipitation scenarios used to generate corresponding future streamflow are based on regionally downscaled temperature and precipitation projections. The projected streamflow obtained by running varied sequences of temperature and precipitation through the hydrologic models, will be compared to historic streamflow to estimate the sensitivity of water supplies to climate change. This regional unified approach is intended to help Colorado water providers communicate with their customers and the media cohesively, by working with the same historic and projected hydrometeorological data, historic natural streamflow, and methodology. Lessons learned from this collaborative approach can be used to encourage and establish other regional efforts throughout the country. Furthermore, this study will set the stage for future advances in procedures and technologies that may further close the gap between science and decision making.
GC33B-0778
Lessons from NASA Applied Sciences Program: Success Factors in Applying Earth Science in Decision Making
The NASA Applied Sciences Program collaborates with organizations to discover and demonstrate applications of NASA Earth science research and technology to decision making. The desired outcome is for public and private organizations to use NASA Earth science products in innovative applications for sustained, operational uses to enhance their decisions. In addition, the program facilitates the end-user feedback to Earth science to improve products and demands for research. The Program thus serves as a bridge between Earth science research and technology and the applied organizations and end-users with management, policy, and business responsibilities. Since 2002, the Applied Sciences Program has sponsored over 115 applications-oriented projects to apply Earth observations and model products to decision making activities. Projects have spanned numerous topics – agriculture, air quality, water resources, disasters, public health, aviation, etc. The projects have involved government agencies, private companies, universities, non-governmental organizations, and foreign entities in multiple types of teaming arrangements. The paper will examine this set of applications projects and present specific examples of successful use of Earth science in decision making. The paper will discuss scientific, organizational, and management factors that contribute to or impede the integration of the Earth science research in policy and management. The paper will also present new methods the Applied Sciences Program plans to implement to improve linkages between science and end users.
GC33B-0779
Towards an Informed Mexican and Mexican-American Citizenry: Bridging the Gap to Increase Human Capacity and Information Dissemination
The research translation and community outreach goal of The University of Arizona's (UA) Superfund Basic Research Program and U.S.-Mexico Binational Center for Environmental Sciences and Toxicology is to increase human capacity and information dissemination to diverse stakeholders, including federal, state, and local government agencies as well as northern Mexican and border community stakeholders. Due to Arizona's demographic characteristics and the UA's proximity to the U.S. – Mexico border, activities target primarily Mexican and Mexican-American populations. With this in mind, a model has been established that pulls from human capital, community-based participatory research and public participation theories. The theories applied to our target population have resulted in the creation of a successful model that is used in both research translation and community outreach work. The model contains four components: community needs (participation), science translation (information), engagement (outreach), and training (education). Examples of how this model operates for various stakeholders involved in environmental science and health issues will be discussed. A case in point of how this model has been applied effectively is the partnership with promotoras (community health advocates) to do environmental science and health trainings to increase the knowledge base of specific populations disproportionately exposed to contaminants of concern. Additional case studies and methodologies used to develop innovative communicative tools (that takes into consideration cultural idiosyncrasies) for stakeholders at all levels in Arizona, the border, and Mexico will be highlighted, such as: 1) information sheets regarding local environmental issues for communities neighboring contaminated sites, 2) SciTransfer Bulletins targeting professional level stakeholders such as Project Managers, Community Involvement Coordinators and the general public, 3) coordinating technical and scientific workshops in the U.S and Mexico and 4) participating in local community events. Lessons learned and knowledge gained in the past three years will also be presented.
GC33B-0780
Mapping for Advocacy - Using Marine Geophysical Data to Establish the Limits of Extend Continent Shelves under the Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Politics and science do not comfortably mesh. Article 76 of the Law of the Sea Convention is an example of a negotiated compromise included in the treaty to serve conflicting state interests between the "haves" (broad continental shelves) and "have-nots" (narrow or no shelf). The language lays out procedures for coastal states to establish extended exploitation rights over seabed resources beyond their EEZ. The rules written into article 76 are about simple, measurable quantities from geodesy (position), hydrography (depth) and marine geology (sediment thickness). With a data set in hand, it is possible to come up with a document that could, with assigned numerical uncertainty (position, depth and sediment thickness +/- so many meters), apply the rules and establish a plausible claim based entirely on morphology. The art in this process arises primarily because of a single expression; natural prolongation. Prolongation is simple enough, but what is natural? By one reading, a natural prolongation shares the continental character of the material underlying the shelves. This fits with the basic distinction between continents and oceans from plate tectonics. The recognition that one did not transmute into another was one of the basic insights on the road to our present understanding of the mobile earth surface. It also fits with the basic distinction that underlies the LOS treaty, the shelves and slopes within 200 miles of land are to be administered by coastal states, while the deep ocean seabed and subsoil and their resources belong to mankind as a whole. Drafted and discussed more than 30 years ago, Article 76 is innocent about what has been learned over the past few decades since the treaty was signed in 1982. The distinction between continental and ocean crust has been blurred by a complex array of hybrids that complicate this determination (eg. oceanic plateaus, hyper-extended continental crust, etc.). Article 76 was written at a time when narrow-beam bottom sounder data was the primary bathymetric mapping tool. As a result it was built on a remarkably simplistic view of the seafloor that has been completely overturned by the swath bathymetric data collected over the last two decades. This process must then somehow reconcile the great diversity of seafloor structure and composition that has been recognized with the simplistic language of the treaty itself. While this process relies on scientific data, it is not hypothesis testing, where, by successive elimination of the unlikely we claim to find some "truth" as a residue. In this context the data are material for advocacy, to establish a positive case for each particular claim. If the science is something like art, making a beautiful object is like seeking the unique, optimal hypothesis, then this instrumental advocacy is something more like engineering. The data are a means to achieve a particular objective, in the typical situation, the goal is to maximize the claimed area. Chris Carleton has referred to "the technical expert and his political masters"; a relationship that this presentation will address and discuss some of the potential uses of Article 76 data in the arctic and the application of Article 76 by the circum-arctic states to the Arctic Ocean.
GC33B-0781
PolarTREC: Successful Methods and Tools for Attaining Broad Educational Impacts with Interdisciplinary Polar Science
PolarTREC--Teachers and Researchers Exploring and Collaborating, a program of the Arctic Research
Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS), is a National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded International Polar Year
(IPY) project in which K-12 educators participate in hands-on field experiences in the polar regions, working
closely with IPY scientists as a pathway to improving science education. Developing long-term teacher-
researcher collaborations through PolarTREC ensures up-to-date climate change science content will
permeate the K-12 education system long after the IPY.
By infusing education with the cutting edge science from the polar regions, PolarTREC has already shown an
increase in student and public knowledge of and interest in the polar regions and global climate change.
Preliminary evaluations have shown that PolarTREC's program activities have many positive impacts on
educators and their ability to teach science concepts and improve their teaching methods. Additionally, K-12
students polled in interest surveys showed significant changes regarding the importance of understanding
the polar regions as a person in today's world. Researchers have been overwhelmingly satisfied with
PolarTREC and cited several specific strengths, including the program's crucial link between the teachers'
field research experiences and their classroom and the extensive training provided to teachers prior to their
expedition.
This presentation will focus on other successful components of the PolarTREC program and how researchers
and organizations might use these tools to reach out to the public for long-term impacts. Best practices
include strategies for working with educators and the development of an internet-based platform for teachers
and researchers to interact with the public, combining several communication tools such as online journals
and forums, real-time Internet seminars, lesson plans, activities, audio, and other educational resources that
address a broad range of scientific topics. These highly relevant, adaptable, and accessible tools and
resources are available to educators across the globe and have connected thousands of students and
citizens to the excitement of polar science.
PolarTREC provides a tested approach and a clear route for researcher participation in the education
community, facilitating increased educator, student, and community understanding of science and the polar
regions during times of interrelated global change.
For more information, visit the PolarTREC website.
http://www.polartrec.com
GC33B-0782
Applying Conceptual Change to climate change communication
Misconceptions in science are usually developed as ways to explain the world before receiving correct teaching on the matter. In the case of climate change, however, some common misconceptions are still developed by the individual but others are deliberately manufactured and communicated to others by those in ideological opposition to the scientific consensus. Regardless of the source of the misconceptions, a large body of research has established that if instruction does not enable people to first identify and challenge their own preconceptions about a given scientific topic, the correct concepts even when explicitly taught will not be retained. For example, students generally believe that the seasons are caused by the earth drawing closer to and then further away from the sun. Instruction regarding the actual cause of the seasons, i.e., changes in the relative tilt of the earth's axis to the sun, may cause a temporary switch in their concepts; but testing a year later shows that they have reverted to their previous belief. In the same way, we argue that unless "instruction" regarding climate science deliberately addresses preconceptions and misconceptions in a non-threatening, accepting way, information regarding the accurate state of the science will be rejected or at best only temporarily retained by those with strong misconceptions on the topic. To illustrate this point, we identify several key climate-related misconceptions in areas ranging from science to economics, and offer specific suggestions on how climate scientists can empower their audience to challenge their own pre- and mis-conceptions in order to effect a more permanent change in belief.
GC33B-0783
Pan-European regional-scale modelling of water and N efficiencies of rapeseed cultivation for biodiesel production
Rapeseed (Brassica napus) used for biodiesel is the EU's dominant biofuel crop with a share of about 80% of the feedstock. We present a regionalized pan-European simulation of current rapeseed cultivation that allows for an evaluation of water and nutrient use efficiency, as well as environmental impacts (such as nitrate leaching or soil erosion). This is a first step in providing politicians and policymakers with the full environmental consequences of large-scale rapeseed cultivation. EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) is an integrated agro-environmental model run in a GIS environment for 49157 10 by 10 km cells covering the EU27's territory. The model requires data that is harmonized at European level and uses daily meteorological data, land use information obtained from satellite land cover data (CORINE) and farm structure survey statistics on crop areas, and soil data and digital terrain information obtained from the European Soil Bureau Database. EPIC's modelled rapeseed yield was tuned against yield data reported for 151 NUTS2 regions obtained from 1995 to 2003 from EUROSTAT, along with consistent yield responses to precipitation, radiation and vapour pressure deficit. Total fertilizer consumption at country level was compared to IFA/FAO data. Correctly modelled yields and a consistent crop response to climatic conditions are essential for subsequent climate change studies. This approach allows us to evaluate environmental pressures and efficiencies arising from and associated with rapeseed cultivation across Europe.
GC33B-0784
Policy Guidance From a Multi-scale Suite of Natural Field and Digital Laboratories of Change: Hydrological Catchment Studies of Nutrient and Pollutant Source Releases, Waterborne Transport-Transformations and Mass Flows in Water Ecosystems
Continental fresh water transports and loads excess nutrients and pollutants from various land surface sources, through the landscape, into downstream inland and coastal water environments. Our ability to understand, predict and control the eutrophication and the pollution pressures on inland, coastal and marine water ecosystems relies on our ability to quantify these mass flows. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro- biogeochemical studies of nutrient and pollutant sources, transport-transformations and mass flows in catchment areas across a range of scales, from continental, through regional and national, to individual drainage basin scales. Main findings on continental scales include correlations between country/catchment area, population and GDP and associated pollutant and nutrient loading, which differ significantly between world regions with different development levels. On regional scales, essential systematic near-coastal gaps are identified in the national monitoring of nutrient and pollutant loads from land to the sea. Combination of the unmonitored near-coastal area characteristics with the relevant regional nutrient and pollutant load correlations with these characteristics shows that the unmonitored nutrient and pollutant mass loads to the sea may often be as large as, or greater than the monitored river loads. Process studies on individual basin- scales show long-term nutrient and pollutant memories in the soil-groundwater systems of the basins, which may continue to uphold large mass loading to inland and coastal waters long time after mitigation of the sources. Linked hydro-biogeochemical-economic model studies finally demonstrate significant comparative advantages of policies that demand explicit quantitative account of the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model limitations, instead of the now common neglect or subjective implicit handling of such uncertainties in strategies and practices for combating water pollution and eutrophication.