H11G-0846
An Entitlement Approach to Address the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Rural India
Groundwater mining in India is one of the biggest water related present and future challenges of South Asia. In the agricultural sector, the negative impact from groundwater depletion is complex and affects farmers directly and indirectly in different ways according to their existing dependence on access to groundwater for irrigation. It stems from a) a reduction in buffer capacity of groundwater as a source of backup supply in critical times of drought, b) the deprivation of access to groundwater of those farmers that cannot raise the capital to continuously drill deeper so as to chase the declining groundwater table and c) the constant reduction of per pump well yield due to the declining water tables given more or less constant pumping energy supply. As a result, rural incomes have become less reliable and household as well as national level food security are increasingly compromised. It is feared that the current deterioration of the national food security situation in India might not easily be reversed due to the unsustainable nature of consumptive groundwater use over the past decades. Access to electricity and subsidized power so as to pump groundwater for irrigation have played a critical role in increasing food production thus linking the energy and agricultural sector. The current rural public finance mechanism is highly ineffective, however, and trapped in an inefficient equilibrium. The deficiencies are that low cost and low quality electricity for agriculture likely translate into wasteful groundwater as well as inefficient energy use and thus lead to resource depletion and contribute to an erosion of the rural electricity distribution system. It is estimated that the current commercial losses to the State Electricity Boards (SEBs) amount to about 23 percent of the gross fiscal deficit of the states. The original intent of the rural subsidy program is thus lost and the current system in urgent need of repair. The uncertain future development of energy prices and rainfall patterns due to climate change only enhance these concerns. Given these deficiencies, any corrective strategy should at least target the following long-term policy goals: a) increase the efficiency of rural electricity consumption in terms of grain production and rural income, b) providing the farmers greater flexibility with timely, high quality energy and more efficient means of production, c) enable proper energy accounting on the use side so as to recover costs at sufficient levels for the SEBs and thus enable long-term investments in energy infrastructure and d) secure and eventually increase agricultural production without depleting groundwater resources over the long run. We will present an entitlement approach with which the above issues can be addressed in the future. A case study example from the semi-arid Telangana Region in Andhra Pradesh will be discussed in depth and preliminary results shown.
H11G-0847
The Western Energy Corridor Initiative: Unconventional Fuel Development Issues, Impacts, and Management Assessment
The United States is increasingly dependent on imported oil and gas; commodities for which other nations are competing and for which future supply may be inadequate to support our transportation fuel needs. Therefore, a renewed interest in 'harder-to-get' unconventional fuels has emerged in both industry and government with directed focus on world class hydrocarbon resources within a corridor extending from Canada southward through the Rocky Mountain States. Within this Western Energy Corridor, co-located with significant conventional hydrocarbon and renewable energy resources, lie some of the world's richest unconventional hydrocarbon resources in oil shales, oil sands and coal for coal-to-liquid conversion. However, development of these resources poses substantial environmental concerns as well as increasing competition for limited resources of water and habitat. With large-scale energy development in the predominantly rural region, local communities, infrastructures, and economies will face increasing demands for roads, electricity, law enforcement, labor, and other support services. The Western Energy Corridor Initiative (WECI) seeks to develop an integrated assessment of the impacts of unconventional fuel development, the interrelationships of planned energy developments in different basins, and the resultant demands placed on the region. This initial WECI study focuses on two of the most important current issues for industry, regulators, and stakeholders -- the assessment of carbon and water resources issues, impacts, and management strategies. Through scenario analyses using coupled systems and process level models, this study investigates the viability of integrated development of multiple energy resources in a carbon neutral and environmentally acceptable manner, and the interrelationships of various energy resource development plans. The modeling framework is designed to extend to include infrastructure, employment, training, fiscal and economic demands placed on the region as a result of various development and climate change scenarios. The multi-scale modeling approach involves a systems dynamics (SD) modeling framework linked with more detailed models such as one for basin-scale hydrology investigating the spatial relationships of water rights and requirements, reservoir locations, and climate change impacts (the details of the SD model and the hydrologic model are presented in other contributions by Pasqualini et al. and Wilson et al.). A link to a CO2 sequestration performance assessment model is also being built to enable analysis of alternative carbon management options. With these evolving capabilities, our analyses consider interdependent demands and impacts placed on the region for various development scenarios.
H11G-0848
Decision Support for Integrated Energy-Water Planning
Currently, electrical power generation uses about 140 billion gallons of water per day accounting for over 40% of all freshwater withdrawals thus competing with irrigated agriculture as the leading user of water. To meet their demand for water, proposed power plants must often target waterways and aquifers prone to overdraft or which may be home to environmentally sensitive species. Acquisition of water rights, permits and public support may therefore be a formidable hurdle when licensing new power plants. Given these current difficulties, what does the future hold when projected growth in population and the economy may require a 30% increase in power generation capacity by 2025? Technology solutions can only take us so far, as noted by the National Energy-Water Roadmap Exercise. This roadmap identified the need for long-term and integrated resource planning supported with scientifically credible models as a leading issue. To address this need a decision support framework is being developed that targets the shared needs of energy and water producers, resource managers, regulators, and decision makers at the federal, state and local levels. The framework integrates analysis and optimization capabilities to help identify potential trade-offs, and "best" alternatives among an overwhelming number of energy/water options and objectives. The decision support tool is comprised of three basic elements: a system dynamics model coupling the physical and economic systems important to integrated energy-water planning and management; an optimization toolbox; and a software wrapper that integrates the aforementioned elements along with additional external energy/water models, databases, and visualization products. An interactive interface allows direct interaction with the model and access to real-time results organized according to a variety of reference systems, e.g., from a political, watershed, or electric power grid perspective. With this unique synthesis of various perspectives, the tool may help highlight looming changes where policy, technical, economic, and data collection options may alleviate stresses within the underlying water systems that support electricity generation. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04- 94AL85000.
H11G-0849
Understanding the Impacts of Energy Production and Climate Change on Water Resources in the Upper Colorado River Basin
Unconventional fuels, primarily oil shale and coal-to-liquid conversions, are under consideration as solutions to our dependence on foreign fuels. However, they are energy intensive, have a higher carbon footprint than conventional fossil fuels and present significant demands on water resources in the Rocky Mountain West. We are applying the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF)basin-scale hydrologic model to address the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources within the context of energy and fuel development in the upper Colorado River basin. WARMF performs physics based energy and water balances on a sub-watershed basis and routes flow through soils and a network of streams, lakes and reservoirs to a watershed outlet. A climate change module has been developed to modify historical meteorological data in order to examine the impacts of climate change scenarios in the basin. The model is parameterized and calibrated for the White, Upper Colorado and Gunnison Rivers in Colorado from their headwaters to the Utah border. These rivers are the most likely to be impacted by new extractions of water for oil shale development in the Piceance Basin in Western Colorado. The model predicts that a three degree Celsius change in temperature could result in an average annual reduction in stream flow by 15 to 20 percent and a shift toward earlier snowmelt runoff. In addition, model output is used within a systems dynamics modeling framework to examine water resource management strategies for a range of energy production growth scenarios and the interdependencies between water use, energy production, carbon management, population growth, infrastructure, and economics in western basins.
H11G-0850
Colorado's Energy and Water Systems in a Changing Climate
Greater energy demands are driving development of domestic energy resources and advancement of fossil- fuel independent energy technologies. However, water is necessary for most energy production. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, impacting the quality and quantity of water resources. Warming temperatures are also altering the timing and nature of energy demand. As water is necessary for energy production, and energy is needed for the water supply, climate change will further exacerbate the interplay between these two sectors and create additional challenges for adaptation planning. To investigate the energy-water nexus, and evaluate the basic information necessary to undertake more comprehensive regional climate impact studies and create adaptation strategies, the energy intensity of Colorado's water systems, and water usage by energy sector, are presented. The geology of Colorado is such that it has both carbon (oil shale, tar sands, coal-bed methane) and non-fossil-fuel (geothermal, winds) energy resources. There is an increasing need to develop these resources, but the impact on the region's water supply is often neglected, as is the energy required to support the water infrastructure. Temperatures in Colorado have risen by an average of about 1°C in the past 30 years, and are projected to increase an additional 2°C by 2050. Precipitation is highly variable and will continue to be in the future, but more severe and persistent droughts are anticipated. Given the suite of potential futures, the interdependence of water and energy in the state necessitates that decision makers consider both water and energy systems when developing adaptive strategies to climate change. The work presented here represents initial efforts towards a more comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on water and energy supply in support of adaptive management approaches in the intermountain west.
H11G-0851
An Analysis of Current Energy Policy Initiatives in New Mexico. What are the Potential Impacts to the State's Water Resources?
Population in New Mexico is increasing rapidly with recent projections showing that the state will add more than 1 million people by 2035. This growth will create a demand for additional energy and water supplies that have yet to be developed. New Mexico currently exports about 50% of the energy generated within the state to neighboring states, and existing power plants predominately utilize traditional fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Because traditional electric generation technologies utilize large quantities of water, New Mexico can also be seen as exporting water for the benefit of electricity consumed in neighboring states. As it is, both surface water and groundwater supplies are stretched thin and these internal and external stresses stemming from population growth will have a substantial impact on the state's water resources. In 2004, the Governor laid out a plan to make New Mexico a "Clean Energy State" by implementing renewable portfolio standards, developing renewable energy transmission infrastructure, creating an alternative energy innovation fund and creating state specific tax credits for renewable energy production and manufacturing. Recent work in the National Energy-Water Roadmap has pointed out that certain renewable sources of energy utilize less water than traditional power plants, and technological fixes to existing power plants will result in less water consumption. If New Mexico carries out its energy initiative, what will be the impacts to the state's water resources? Will it be possible to meet competing demands for this water? These questions and others will be analyzed in a decision-support tool that can look at the connection between both the physical and economic systems to see what the tradeoffs might be as a result of specific policy decisions. The ability to plan for future energy needs and understanding potential impacts to the state's limited water resources will be an invaluable tool for decision-makers in New Mexico. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
H11G-0852
Production of Algal-based Biofuel from Non-fresh Water Sources
A system dynamics model is developed to assess the availability and feasibility of non-traditional water sources from dairy wastewater, produced water from crude oil production and from coal-bed methane gas extraction for the production of algal-based biofuel. The conceptual framework is based on two locales within New Mexico, the San Juan basin in the northwest and the Permian basin in the southeast, where oil and gas drilling have increased considerably in the last ten years. The simulation framework contains an algal growth module, a dairy module, an oil production module, and a gas production module. Our preliminary investigation indicates a cyclical demand for non-fresh water due to the cyclical nature of algal biomass production and crop evapotranspiration. The wastewater from the dairy industry is not a feasible non-fresh water source because the agricultural water demand for cow's dry feed far exceeds the amount generated at the dairy. The uncertainty associated with the water demand for cow's dry matter intake is the greatest in this model. The oil and gas produced water, ignoring the quality, provides ample supply for water demand in algal biomass production. There remains work to address technical challenges associated with coupling the appropriate non-fresh water source to the local demand.
H11G-0853
Groundwater Depletion versus Soil Salinization in Irrigated Agriculture in Semiarid Southern High Plains, Texas
Because irrigated agriculture is the primary consumer of global freshwater resources, there is increased emphasis on using more water conservative irrigation application techniques to reduce depletion of water resources while maintaining crop productivity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of land use change from natural or rainfed agricultural ecosystems to irrigated agricultural ecosystems on water resources and soil salinity using data from the southern High Plains (SHP, 75,000 km2) in Texas, USA as an example. Approximately 11% of the land surface is irrigated with groundwater from the Ogallala (High Plains) Aquifer. Boreholes were drilled beneath irrigated cropland (13 boreholes) and beneath rainfed cropland (19 boreholes) and native vegetation (3 boreholes) to provide baseline control. Unsaturated zone soil samples were analyzed for water content, matric potential, and water-extractable chloride, bromide, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations. Increased drainage beneath irrigated sites displaced pre-existing salt bulges downward to 5 m in fine-grained soils and to greater than profile depths in coarser soils (4 – 17 m). Most irrigated profiles showed salt bulges which are attributed to deficit irrigation. Large inventories of nitrate and high correlations with chloride indicate overapplication of fertilizers and leaching below the root zone. Estimated drainage rates beneath irrigated sites are similar to the range of drainage/recharge rates beneath rainfed agriculture. These results emphasize the potential for soil salinization with deficit irrigation when the irrigation water quality is poor and precipitation is insufficient to flush accumulating salts.
H11G-0854
A Multi-Tracer Approach to Determine the Impacts of Agricultural Irrigation Recharge on Groundwater Sustainability in the Columbia Plateau Basalt Aquifers, Central Washington, USA
Irrigation in semi-arid agricultural regions has profound effects on the recharge rates and water quality of shallow groundwater. In the case of oxic groundwater systems, such as the Flood Basalt aquifers of the western U.S., high nitrates from fertilizers persist for long time periods due to the absence of denitrification. Large-scale irrigation practices with surface-water (i.e. Columbia, Yakima, and Snake rivers) since the 1950's have resulted in artificially high recharge rates and enhanced fluxes of nitrate into the shallow groundwater. This study addresses how modern anthropogenic activities (i.e. surface water irrigation and fertilizer application) have impacted the hydrology and geochemistry of shallow groundwater resources in the Columbia Plateau Basalt aquifers of central Washington. The Saddle Mountains Basalt (SMBA) aquifer comprises the uppermost basalt layer of the Columbia Plateau Basalt aquifers. The SMBA contains some of the highest concentrations of nitrate in the nation and has experienced water table increases of tens to hundreds of meters from irrigation. Stable isotopes (2H, 18O) were used in conjunction with age-tracers (3H, CFCs, 14C), 87Sr/86Sr, and elemental chemistry to determine the residence times, sources, and flowpaths of shallow groundwaters in the SMBA. The results demonstrate the presence of two distinct groups of waters: 1) contaminated irrigation waters with high NO3- (11-116 mg/l), detectable tritium (2.8-13.4 TU), CFC ages between 20 to 50 yrs b.p., and high δ18O values (-13.5‰ to-16.1‰); and 2) pristine groundwaters at depth with low NO3- (1-5 mg/l), no tritium, and low δ18O values (-17.3‰ to- 18.9‰). Nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of NO3-, in conjunction with high DO values, confirm that denitrification is not an important process in the organic-poor basalt aquifers resulting in the transport of high NO3- irrigation waters to depths greater than 40 m in less than 30 years. 14C is being used to constrain the ages of pristine groundwaters. 87Sr/86Sr is being used to determine the amount of mixing between irrigation recharge and pristine groundwater.
H11G-0855
An Integrated Environmental Assessment Model for Oil Shale Development
Due to the rising prices of conventional fuel, unconventional fossil fuels such as oil shale, tar sands, and coal to liquid have gained attention as an energy resource. The largest reserve of oil shale in the world is located in the western interior of North America, and includes parts of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Development of oil shale in this area could reduce or eliminate the U.S. dependence on foreign fuel sources. However, oil shale production carries a number of potential environmental impacts. Fuel production associated with oil shale will create increasing competition for limited resources such as water, while potentially negatively impacting air quality, water quality, habitat, and wildlife. Water use, wastewater management, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and land use are the main environmental issues that oil shale production involves. A proper analysis of the interrelationships between these factors and those of the new energy needs required for production is necessary to avoid serious negative impacts to the environment and the economies. We have developed a system dynamics integrated assessment model to evaluate potential fuel production capacity from oil shale within the limits of environmental quality, land use, and economics. Recognizing that the impacts of oil shale development are the outcomes of a complex process that involve water, energy, climate, social pressures, economics, regulations, technical advances, etc., and especially their couplings and feedbacks, we developed our model using the system dynamics (SD) modeling approach. Our SD model integrates all of these components and allows us to analyze the interdependencies among them. Our initial focus has been to address industry, regulator, and stakeholder concerns regarding the quantification and management of carbon and water resources impacts. The model focuses on oil shale production in the Piceance Basin in Colorado, but is inherently designed to be extendable to larger regions, levels of production, and different unconventional fuels.