PA13A-1335
Beyond Wiki to Judgewiki for Transparent Climate Change Decisions
Climate Change is like the prisoner's dilemma, a zero-sum game, or cheating in sports. Everyone and every
country is tempted to selfishly maintain or advance their standard of living. The tremendous difference
between standards of living amplifies the desire to opt out of Climate Change solutions adverse to economic
competitiveness.
Climate Change is also exceedingly complex. No one person, one organization, one country, or partial
collection of countries has the capacity and the global support needed to make decisions on Climate Change
solutions. There are thousands of potential actions, tens of thousands of known and unknown
environmental and economic impacts. Some actions are belatedly found to be unsustainable beyond token
volumes, corn ethanol or soy-biodiesel for example.
Mankind can address human nature and complexity with a globally transparent information and decision
process available to all 7 billion of us. We need a process that builds trust and simplifies complexity.
Fortunately, we have the Internet for trust building communication and computers to simplify complexity.
Mankind can produce new software tailored to the challenge. We would combine group information collection
software (a wiki) with a decision-matrix (a judge), market forecasting, and video games to produce the tool
mankind needs for trust building transparent decisions on Climate Change actions. The resulting software
would be a judgewiki.
http://www.PODenergy.org
PA13A-1336
Tracking the Health of the Geoscience Workforce
Increased demands for resources and environmental activities, relative declines in college students entering technical fields, and expectations of growth commensurate with society as a whole challenge the competitiveness of the U.S. geoscience workforce. Because of prior business cycles, more than 50% of the workforce needed in natural resource industries in 10 years is currently not in the workforce. This issue is even more acute in government at all levels and in academic institutions. Here, we present a snapshot of the current status of the geoscience profession that spans geoscientists in training to geoscience professionals in government, industry, and academia to understand the disparity between the supply of and demand for geoscientists. Since 1996, only 1% of high school SAT test takers plan to major in geosciences at college. Although the total number of geoscience degrees granted at community colleges have increased by 9% since 1996 , the number of geoscience undergraduate degrees has decreased by 7%. The number of geoscience master's and doctoral degrees have increased 4% and 14% respectively in the same time period. However, by 2005, 68 geoscience departments were consolidated or closed in U.S. universities. Students who graduate with geoscience degrees command competitive salaries. Recent bachelors geoscience graduates earned an average salary of $31,366, whereas recent master's recipients earned an average of $81,300. New geosciences doctorates commanded an average salary of $72,600. Also, fFederal funding for geoscience research has increase steadily from $485 million in 1970 to $3.5 billion in 2005. Economic indicators suggest continued growth in geoscience commodity output and in market capitalization of geoscience industries. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 19% increase in the number of geoscience jobs from 2006 to 2016. Despite the increased demand for geoscientists and increase in federal funding of geoscience research, lagging numbers of graduates from geoscience degree programs and the consolidation and closing of geoscience academic departments presents a strong challenge for the future of the geoscience profession. Measurement, analysis, and reporting of all aspects of the geoscience workforce system are central to successful decisions that support the improvement of geosciences in the U.S.
PA13A-1337
Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events
The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the existing federal climate products and services and the needed federal climate products and services which will address these weather thresholds. Just as important, as we work to meet the needs, a robust education and outreach program is essential to take full advantage of new products, services and capabilities. To ascertain what climate products and services currently exist to address weather thresholds relative to surface transportation, what climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and how to bridge the gap between what is available and what is needed, the OFCM surveyed the federal meteorological community. Consistent with the extreme events highlighted in the IPCC report, the OFCM survey categorized the weather thresholds associated with surface transportation into the following extreme event areas: (a) excessive heat, (b) winter precipitation, (c) summer precipitation, (d) high winds, and (e) flooding and coastal inundation. The survey results, the gap analysis, as well as OFCM's planned, follow-on activities with additional categories (i.e., in addition to surface transportation) and weather thresholds will be shared with meeting participants. 1 The OFCM is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the mission to ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather and climate requirements, products, services, and supporting research among the federal agencies. 2 http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-final-ch1.pdf 3 http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-3-3.pdf
PA13A-1338
Critical Needs for the Twenty First Century: The Role of the Geosciences
The American Geological Institute and its Member Societies have prepared a concise document for U.S.
policy makers about the critical needs of the United States and the rest of the world at the beginning of the
twenty first century and how the geosciences can help. In particular, the document is meant for a new
Administration and a new Congress in the United States. The geoscience community identified seven critical
needs, which are: energy and climate; water; waste disposal; natural hazards; infrastructure, raw materials;
and education and the geoscience workforce. Each critical need is described with an explanation of how the
geosciences could help address each need. After each summary, the document provides a list of policy
directions that policy makers could consider to address these needs with help from the geosciences. The
three key policy recommendations are: 1. Establish a natural resource advisor within the White House Office
of Science and Technology Policy; 2. Invest in mapping, monitoring, assessments and state and federal
surveys of natural resources and 3. Invest in research and develop to understand Earth processes.
http://www.agiweb.org/gap/trans08.html
PA13A-1339
Peak Oil and Coal Fires: How Scientific Fact Becomes Debatable Political Questions
Political consensus in the United States cannot be more different from a scientific consensus. The latter situation allows for resolution of problems large and small based on recognized facts and procedures. Once a compelling problem is recognized the scientific community is able to marshal resources to examine that phenomenon. Political consensus however allows for the unending reconsideration of problems in the political arena depending on the outcome of elections and the intensity and sustained length of citizen interest. Serious problems can be trivialized by election campaign rhetoric, or can fail to rise to the level of aggregation necessary to be considered. Coal fires are an example of the latter while OCS exploration and production is an example of the former. Peak oil is a problem that will be avoided until there is a crisis. With current scientific evidence mounting that an important tipping point is approaching, and that societal collapse is a probable outcome of maintaining the status quo, it is vitally important to understand the structural limitations of government decisions. Long standing consensus in the legislature is transferred to the bureaucracy, which can maintain a policy position long after its electoral support has vanished. A legislature and executive experiencing thin electoral margins (51-54% of the vote or seats) produces a different sort of political environment than what is possible with safe margins (>60%). Supermajorities with veto proof margins (>65%) are rare, but not unknown (e.g. 1935-37; 1965-67) and allow for revolutionary policy innovation.
PA13A-1340
Stealth and Natural Disasters: Science, Policy and Human Behavior
Geophysicists, earth scientists, and other natural scientists play a key role in studying disasters, and are challenged to convey the science to the public and policy makers (including government and business). I have found it useful to introduce the concept of two general types of disasters to these audiences: natural and stealth. Natural disasters are geological phenomena over which we humans have some, but relatively little, control. Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods and volcanic eruptions are the most familiar examples, but exogenous events such as meteorite impacts, solar flares, and supernovae are also possibly disruptive. Natural disasters typically have an abrupt onset, cause immediate major change, are familiar from the historic record, and get much media and public attention. They cannot be prevented, but preplanning can ameliorate their effects. Natural disasters are increasingly amplified by us (humans), and we are increasingly affected by them due to our expanding presence on the planet. Less familiar disasters are unfolding in the near-term, but they are not happening in the minds of most people. They are approaching us stealthily, and for this reason I propose that we call them stealth disasters. They differ from natural disasters in several important ways: stealth disasters are primarily caused by, or driven by, the interaction of humans with complex cycles of processes on the planet. Examples are: fresh water shortages and contamination, soil degradation and loss, climate changes, ocean degradation. The onset of stealth disasters is incremental rather than abrupt. They may not unfold significantly during the course of one term of political office, but they are unfolding in our lifetime. We as individuals may or may not escape their consequences, but they will affect our children and grandchildren. If humans are familiar with stealth disasters at all, it is from a relatively local experience, e.g., flooding of the Mississippi or the Dust Bowl in the U.S., or their counterparts in other places globally. Knowledge of stealth disasters is not universal at the scale now required for global attention. Pre-planning can allay the impacts of stealth disasters, or possibly even prevent them. It is imperative that a new Congress and new Administration be informed of the need to respond to both the near-term natural disasters, and to immediately institute thoughtful planning to ally or prevent the stealth disasters.
PA13A-1341
What Can We Learn From Historical Trends and Distributions of Malaria? Historical Case Studies From the US, Italy, and Sri Lanka
Malaria is currently prevalent in many countries and has been for centuries. Primary controllers of the distribution and incidence of malaria in the past have been economic, social, military, political etc. with a modest contribution from local climate variations. Studies of potential impacts of climate change on the epidemiology of diseases such as malaria have focused on the impact of changing environmental conditions on vector physiology but little attention has been paid to factors that explain historical variations in spatial and temporal distributions of the disease. This talk reports results of three historical case studies from the US, Italy and Sri Lanka that bring together a breadth of information from varied sources in order to illustrate the value of including such information in studies of disease-climate connections.