SA51A-1527 INVITED
Operational Space Weather Products at IPS
IPS Radio and Space Services operates an extensive network (IPSNET) of monitoring stations and
observatories within the Australasian and Antarctic regions to gather information
on the space environment. This includes ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS-ISM, oblique HF sounding,
riometers, and solar radio and optical telescopes.
IPS exchanges this information with similar organisations world-wide. The Regional Warning Centre (RWC) is
the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) and it utilizes this data to provide products and services to
support customer operations. A wide range of customers use
IPS services including; defence force and emergency services using HF radio communications and
surveillance systems, organisations involved in geophysical exploration and pipeline cathodic protection,
GPS users in aviation. Subscriptions to the alerts, warnings, forecasts and reports regarding the solar,
geophysical and ionospheric conditions are distributed by email and Special Message Service (SMS). IPS
also develops and markets widely used PC software prediction tools for HF radio skywave and
surface wave (ASAPS/GWPS) and provides consultancy services for system planning.
http://www.ips.gov.au
SA51A-1528
Developing a space weather forecast capability for the Air Force Research Laboratory
AFRL's Space Weather Forecasting Laboratory has begun a long term effort to create an integrated space weather forecasting capability based on leading space environment models. Our initial efforts will be focused on assembling and validating a baseline comprised of current operational and otherwise established models. Component models will be upgraded as we validate and learn to use more advanced models. Our long term goal is a suite of models, coupled or otherwise, that are data assimilative where appropriate and have ensemble forecast capability. I will outline our strategy and report on our progress.
SA51A-1529
AFWA's Space Weather Modeling System: A Flexible Space Weather Forecast System
A key requirement of models used for space weather forecasting is making them flexible enough to exploit new computational capabilities as technology advances. This flexibility occurs when models are made scalable and portable while maintaining their existing capabilities and accuracy. Scalability allows the models to run faster as more processors are added. Portability enables the models to run on a variety of computing platforms. This makes operational procurement decisions more flexible and cost-effective. The Battlespace Environments Institute (BEI) project supports the coupling of Earth system environment models, such as oceans and atmospheres together, under the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The project mandates scalability and portability of the coupled models to adapt readily to changing computational environments. The Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS) is a BEI model of solar-terrestrial space weather. The Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) solar wind model and the Ionospheric Forecast Model (IFM) are the first two coupled components in SWMS. The HAFv2 model produces quantitative forecasts of solar wind parameters at Earth and elsewhere in the inner heliosphere. The IFM is the physics-based ionosphere model of Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) data-assimilation model. IFM provides highly representative specifications of plasma conditions in the global ionosphere. Coupling these two models together in the SWMS enables multi-day forecasts of solar wind and ionospheric disturbances. SWMS is an example of a successful transition of research to operations that is flexible while maintaining accuracy. This capability is crucial to DoD because it provides their warfighters with the actionable space weather forecasts that they need to make operational decisions. We present the solar wind and ionospheric results of the SWMS model for the large solar storm of April 6-7, 2000 with comparisons to solar wind and ionospheric data.
SA51A-1530
Improvements in the Space Weather Modeling Framework
The magnetosphere within the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) has been represented by a global magnetosphere model (BATSRUS), an inner magnetosphere model (the Rice Convection Model) and a model of the ionospheric electrodynamics. We present significant improvements in the SWMF: (1) We have implemented a spherical grid within BATSRUS and have utilized this for modeling the magnetosphere; (2) We have significantly improved the physics of the auroral oval within the ionospheric electrodynamics code, modeling a self-consistent diffuse and discrete auroral oval; (3) We utilize the multifluid MHD code within BATSRUS to allow for more accurate specification and differentiation of the density within the magnetosphere; and (4) we have incorporated the Hot Electron and Ion Drift Integrator (HEIDI) ring current code within the SWMF. We will present these improvements and show the quantitative differences within the model results when comparing to a suite of measurements for a number of different intervals.
SA51A-1531
Research to Operations: Maintaining US Space Weather Capability after DMSP
The first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft was launched in 1972; the last is scheduled to fly in 2012. Presently, there is no replacement for the space weather monitoring instruments that fly on DMSP. These sensors have provided extensive, long-term data sets that constitute a critical component of the US space weather capabilities. The US Air Force is currently considering options for new space weather missions. Evolving operational needs and recent research accomplishments justify continued collection of space environmental data. Examples include measurements to: (1) monitor in real time the Dst index that will drive next-generation satellite drag models; (2) calibrate electromagnetic energy flux from the magnetosphere into the ionosphere and thermosphere that heats neutrals and drives winds that degrade precise orbit determinations (3) determine strengths of electric fields at high and low latitudes during the main phase of magnetic storms that lead to severe blackouts and spacecraft anomalies (4) characterize plasma density irregularities, equatorial plasma bubbles, and Appleton anomaly variability to improve reliability of transionospheric communication and surveillance links; (5) characterize particle flux responsible for auroral clutter and radar degradation; (6) map regions of L-Band scintillation for robust GPS applications; and (7) update the World Magnetic Field Model to maintain superiority in guidance systems. These examples illustrate the need for continued space environment awareness. Comprehensive assessments of both operational requirements and research advances are needed to inform selections of sensors and spacecraft that will define future operational capabilities.
SA51A-1532
Forecasting Frontiers Part I: Solar Drivers of Space Weather Observations
The new AFRL Space Weather Forecasting Laboratory (SWFL) seeks to understand, explore and research the elements involved in developing a successful program of space situational awareness. Originating with the primary solar drivers, space weather envelops a continuum of critically connected heliospheric, ionospheric and thermospheric regimes. Within each regime, a successful space weather awareness and forecast situation requires a multi- pronged effort that spans areas of reliable monitoring, data acquisition and its timely availability, fusing of the data with physical, heuristic and numerical models, and timely now-cast and forecast abilities. In this presentation we will address solar drivers. We will illustrate the need for monitoring solar surface phenomena. Within the realm of solar drivers, eruptive solar activity comprises of primarily flares and mass ejections, which are, in turn, driven by local physical conditions of constantly competing magnetic, hydrodynamic and thermodynamic forces. These physical conditions span the entire solar atmosphere from below the visible solar photosphere through chromosphere to corona. We will address the need for timely monitoring of physical conditions leading to these phenomena and the diagnostic potential of various seemingly heterogeneous physical quantities connected to the resultant eruptive activity. A discussion of time-scales of phenomena, and resources/tools required for timely monitoring, cadence, tolerances to latency in data availability, testing/evaluation of physical and data models and the viability of a deterministic now-cast and forecast models will be covered.
SA51A-1533
Investigating Automated Coronal Mass Ejection Prediction Using a Solar Cycle of MDI Magnetograms
This investigation employs the entire set of synoptic line-of-site magnetograms from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to calculate a plethora of characteristics of the magnetic field in active regions, including measures of non-potentiality, the gradient-weighted length of neutral lines, the length along the primary neutral line, and time variation of total flux. These measures are calculated for the disk passage of 1037 NOAA active regions spanning Solar Cycle 23 from 1996 - 2008 in an attempt to determine the ability of line-of-site magnetograms to be used as a predictor of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Several investigators have analyzed photospheric magnetic field observations to determine the potential for solar flare and CME prediction [Falconer, 2001, 2003, 2008; Leka and Barnes, 2003, 2006]. Using data from a variety of sources, both line-of-site and vector magnetograms have been studied. Until now the studies have been restricted to a relatively small sample size and considered just a few measures of non-potentiality. This expansive study is accomplished with an IDL code that automatically searches the MDI database for data related to any NOAA AR, uses a three-iteration primary neutral line finder on remapped data [Bokenkamp, 2007], applies a constant-alpha force-free field model [Allisandrakis, 1981], and calculates several measures of non-potentiality [Falconer, 2008]. The code has also been designed as a tool for recording and displaying these variables for any specific NOAA AR or user-defined solar location. A similar program can be used with the vector magnetic field data from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) that will become available after the launch of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).
SA51A-1534
Comparison of Automated Flare Location Algorithm Results to Solar Truth
Accurate and timely detection of solar flares and determination of their heliocentric coordinates are key requirements for space weather forecasting. We report the results of a study to compare the results of multiple algorithms for automated determination of flare locations to "solar truth". The XFL algorithm determines flare locations in near real-time using GOES-12 SXI image data, and is triggered by GOES-12 XRS flare detections. We also consider H-alpha flare locations reported in the FLA data set, and the Latest Events (LEV) locations produced by LMSAL, based on GOES-12 SXI or SOHO EIT observations. We compare the results of each of these algorithms to solar truth heliocentric flare locations determined from analysis of GOES-12 SXI images of several hundred flares of C class and higher, during periods of high, moderate, and low solar activity between 2003 and 2006. We also compare the relative effectiveness of each of these algorithms for determining flare locations in near real-time, considering both timeliness and accuracy of the reported flare locations.
SA51A-1535
Statistical Prediction of Solar Flares Using Magnetic Field Data: A Status Report
The energy to power solar flares is undoubtedly stored in the concentrated magnetic field structures of solar active region atmospheres. Exactly how to make use of observations of the solar magnetic field for predicting the occurrence of solar energetic events is, however, a great challenge. Building upon our prior work of "daily" forecasts using a dataset of photospheric magnetic vector field maps, we examine here questions of forecasting ability in light of data source and the target temporal window. We will discuss the benefits and problems of relying upon line-of-sight magnetic field data (vs. vector photospheric magnetic field maps). In addition, we begin to examine changes in forecasting ability, as measured by standard validation statistics, that result from considering different forecasting windows.
SA51A-1536
20th Century Solar Spectral Irradiance Modeling Based on Solar Cycle 22 and 23 Measurements
Our long term solar spectral irradiance model under development will include EUV, UV, Visible, and IR spectral irradiance estimates. This model is based, in part, on Ca II K images collected from various observatories. For example, images from the Mt. Wilson Observatory supplemented with Greenwhich Sunspot data are used in the model to produce irradiance estimates for the time period before space-based spectral irradiance observations. The Mt. Wilson Ca II K film archive extending back to 1915 has been recently digitized. We expect to generate estimated spectra back to the start of this data set. We discuss the development details of the various spectral component derived from various spectra and proxies measured during Solar Cycle 22 and 23. Measured and estimated spectra will be compared in time series of various spectral bands as well as in spectra for days with specific solar surface configurations. This work is supported by the NASA LWS program.
SA51A-1537
STRENGTH OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION-DRIVEN SHOCKS NEAR THE SUN AND THEIR IMPORTANCE IN PREDICTING SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENTS
Coronal shocks are an important structure but without direct observations in solar and space physics. The strength of shocks plays a key role in shock-related phenomena, such as radio bursts, SEP generation and so on. This paper will present an improved method of calculating ă and shock strength near the Sun. In the method, observations as many as possible rather than one-dimensional global models are used. Two events, a relatively slow CME on 2001 September 15 and a very fast CME on 2000 June 15, are selected to illustrate the calculation process. The calculation results suggest that the slow CME drove a strong shock with Mach number of 3.43~4.18 while the fast CME drove a relatively weak shock with Mach number of 1.90~3.21. This is consistent with the radio observations that a stronger and longer decameter-hectometric (DH) type II radio burst is found during the first event and a short DH type II radio burst during the second event. Particularly, the calculation results explain the observational fact that the slow CME produced a major solar energetic particle (SEP) event while the fast CME did not. Through the comparison between the two events, the importance of shock strength in predicting SEP events is addressed.
SA51A-1538
Prediction of solar proton event occurrence probability and peak flux using its associated X-ray flux, impulsive time, and longitude
Solar proton events have been regarded to be very important in that they may cause the damage of
spacecrafts and human activities. In this study, we examined the longitudinal dependence of solar proton
events and their relationships with x-ray flares. For this we used NOAA proton events whose fluxes of > 10
MeV protons are greater than 10 particles cm-2 sec-1 ster-1 from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-
ray flare data. As a result, we found that 181 proton events, of which most of them (169/181) are associated
with major flares (85 X-class and 84 M-class). Then we examined the fraction of proton events relative to total
major X-ray flares and its longitudinal dependence. We found that about only 3.6%(2.0% for M-class and
20.7% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. This fraction strongly depends on
helio-longitude; for example, the fraction for 30W SA51A-1539 Geometric Localization and Polarimetric Localization: Space Weather Tools to Calculate CME Propagation Characteristics
The geometric localization technique [Pizzo and Biesecker, 2004] utilizes a series of lines of sight from two
space-based coronagraphs to determine gross propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
in three-dimensional space. The polarimetric localization technique [Moran and Davila, 2004] uses the
percent polarization observed by a single coronagraph to obtain a three-dimensional reconstruction of a
CME. Both techniques can be used in near-real-time within an operational space weather forecast center.
When these two independent techniques are used in conjunction with each other to analyze
STEREO/Secchi/COR2 beacon data, they can provide significant constraints on the three-dimensional
location and velocity, including speed and direction, for any Earth-directed CME. Here, we employ these
techniques to the CME of 31 December 2007 and compare results on the speed and direction of propagation
for this CME.
SA51A-1540 The RELativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (RELEASE): Scope, Verification and Validation Status, and Intended Future Use
The RELEASE method of short-term forecasting of the intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of
hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons has been developed. Electrons are well known
to provide the first sign of a solar particle event in progress, approximately one our ahead of more dangerous
protons. The forecasting of sudden intensity increases of protons from solar energetic particle events is
relevant for in-situ and regional (e.g., Earth-moon system) radiation protection of humans on exploration
missions. The method utilizes the speed advantage of electrons over up to 40 MeV protons and newly
discovered correlations of inverse rise time and intensity between the two dominant particle species of solar
eruptions. The effectiveness of this tool bases on the observed similarities in particle transport between the
Sun and 1 AU. Electrons act as test particles by probing the ever- changing heliospheric transport conditions
that act on the slower moving protons. In February 2008, the method has been implemented with near-real-
time data of the COSTEP instrument onboard SOHO located at L1. Forecasting output is available live via
the internet. The ongoing verification and validation activity so far has proven the robustness and reliability of
the tool under quiet conditions with an extremely low false-alarm rate. Ongoing activities aimed at improving
the method with archived COSTEP data over a full solar cycle will be presented.
SA51A-1541 A Sensitivity Study Using ENLIL Solar Wind And Cone CME Model
We perform a parametric study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched into the inner heliosphere using
the 3D ENLIL numerical solar wind model together with the Cone model. The cone model is a simple
geometrical model that uses a cone shape to characterize the angular width and the central position of a halo
CME. For this study, the CMEs are launched into an idealized ambient solar wind background at different
locations with respect to the streamer belt. We investigate the sensitivity of the ENLIL + Cone model to CMEs
with varying densities, launch speeds and sizes, to small variations in launch direction, and to grid resolution.
We compare the properties of the ICMEs arriving at 1 AU from different vantage points (including the Sun-
Earth line) such as their shock strengths and propagation times. This research is part of an ongoing effort to
validate the WSA/ENLIL model and is supported by the Air Force Research Lab Space Vehicles Directorate.
SA51A-1542 Validating the SWAGE (Solar Wind Acting on the Geophysical Environment) Model Using Ground-based and Satellite Data
In an earlier work [Rothwell and Jasperse, 2006] we derived the global ionospheric electric field produced by
the Region-1 and Region-2 currents based on the ACE solar wind data. Despite the simplifying assumptions
in that work of both the dipole and spin axis being aligned perpendicular to ecliptic plane we found significant
agreement with Jicamarca vertical drift data, particularly during the November 2004 magnetic storm. Based
on data availability, we will extend our comparisons using the recently launched C/NOFS satellite. Also, in
order to extend the model to arbitrary geographic locations we now take into account 1) a non-spin-aligned
magnetic dipole, as well as local IGRF modifications in the B-field, 2) a solar-driven ionospheric conductance
model in GSE coordinates, well-defined near the terminators, and 3) the Region-1 and Region-2 currents
defined in magnetic coordinates. As in the previous work, Region-1 and Region-2 currents are related, using
the Hill-Siscoe transpolar potential model, to the solar wind data as measured at L1 by the ACE satellite. In
this way, we intend to build a useful Space Weather Forecasting tool by which the time-dependent, solar-
driven ionospheric electric field is defined at arbitrary geographic locations.
Rothwell, P. L., and J. R. Jasperse(2006) Modeling the connection of the global ionospheric electric fields to
the solar wind, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A3211,
Doi:10.1029/2004JA010992.
SA51A-1543 Numerical space weather forecast of the solar wind and radiation belts
Large-scale solar wind structures and the magnetohydrodynamics
(MHD) parameters at the Earthfs position are essential for
driving the space weather phenomena such as geomagnetic storms,
geomagnetically induced currents, and radiation belt enhancement.
We report our recent progress on the real-time space weather
modeling of the solar wind and radiation belts. The global MHD
solar wind model and the Fokker-Planck type radiation belt model
are coupled via the time-varying solar wind MHD parameters at the
Earthfs position to give a quantitative estimate of the outer
belt electron flux for a week in advance. The background solar wind
source at 30 solar radii is provided from global MHD corona model based on SOHO MDI real-time
observations. Coronal mass ejection (CME) is the most challenging factor. We show our test approach how
to simulate the CMEs in real-time. A probabilistic forecast system of the outer radiation belt has been
operated for about a year and is open to public via internet. We present how the numerical forecast and the
probabilistic forecast work together to understand the space radiation environment in real-time.
SA51A-1544 Initial Validation of the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module
The central objective of the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) is to develop a
numerical model for completely characterizing the time-dependent radiation environment in the Earth-Moon-
Mars and Interplanetary space environments. The Module includes a 3D energetic particle transport model
(EPREM), and utilizes a version of the Baryon Transport code (BRYNTRN). With the initial setup of the
EMMREM framework in place, we are turning to performing realistic simulations and comparisons with
observations from GOES, Ulysses, LRO/CRaTER, and MSL/RAD.
We present the results from a validation of the EMMREM module for characterizing the space radiation
environment of the inner Heliosphere. Simultaneous observations by GOES and ULYSSES of solar energetic
protons for several major SEP events are compared with EMMREM simulations, and resulting proton flux time
series analyzed to determine the quality of the fit. EMMREM predictions for the dose equivalent and
accumulated dose equivalent throughout those events are discussed. We also compare a well established
benchmark proton fluence spectrum for the August 1972 SEP event based on IMP-5 spacecraft observations
with EMMREM simulations for the locations of IMP-5 (1 AU) and Pioneer 10 (2 AU), and discuss accumulated
radiation quantities throughout the event.
SA51A-1545 The Importance of Secondary Electron and Backscattered Electron Emissions in Spacecraft Charging
Secondary electron and backscattered electron emissions are of central importance in determining the
charging level of spacecraft charging. Traditionally, the Sternglass formula and the Sanders-Inouye formula
are used for the secondary electron coefficient whereas the Prokopenko-Laframboise formula is used for the
backscattered electron coefficient. A survey of the advances in secondary electron coefficient
measurements in the past two decades shows that the results are all different. Surface contaminants,
surface thickness, and space environment are factors affecting the secondary electron coefficients. These
results affect spacecraft charging level calculations, especially at high levels above kilovolts. According to
the Prokopenko-Laframboise formula, the backscattering electron coefficient approaches a small value as
the primary electron energy approaches zero. Recent advances, however, have revealed that the
backscattering electron coefficient approaches unity at zero energy. This result affects spacecraft charging
level calculations, especially at low levels below about 50 volts.
SA51A-1546 The Geophysical Institute Magnetometer Array: Making Real-Time Geophysical Measurements Available for Operational Space Weather Needs
The Geophysical Institute Magnetometer Array (GIMA) consists of twelve
magnetometer stations distributed across Alaska cutting the auroral
oval. Each station is equipped with a ring-core, fluxgate
magnetometer, GPS clock and data logger. Data is returned from each
station to the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska where it is
verified, archived, and made available to the space science
community. The GIMA web page, at http://magnet.gi.alaska.edu/,
provides the data from nine stations online in real-time.
Additionally, the GIMA web page provides data from non-GIMA
magnetometer stations. The GIMA data set available online spans the
time period 1994 to the present. This presentation describes current
efforts to update the data distribution channels while maintaining
existing data access methods. In a typical month, there are
approximately 30 different users of the data set (some using archival
data for event studies, other using real time data for operational
Space Weather forecasting). The GIMA data set has been available as
ASCII and netCDF data files. We are migrating the data to a
PostgreSQL database. This database is coupled with the Open
Geospatial Consortium (OGC) geoserver which redistributes the data in
various OGC standard-compliant formats (e.g. kml, WCS, WDS). This
effort is motivated in large part to improve data discovery by new
Space Weather product generators and to feed the data in multiple
Virtual Observatories (VxOs). We will describe our efforts and
illustrate our successes.
SA51A-1547 A Proxy Method for Estimation of EE-index using MAGDAS/CPMN Data
EE-index (EDst, EU, and EL) is a new index proposed by Space Environment Research Center, Kyushu
University (see Uozumi et al., 2008) to monitor temporal and long-term variations of the equatorial electrojet
(EEJ). EU and EL mainly represent the range of EEJ and CEJ (equatorial counter electrojet) components,
respectively. The baseline levels of EU and EL are obtained by averaging the H-component magnetic
variations observed at the nightside (LT = 18-06) MAGDAS/CPMN stations along the magnetic equator.
EDst, defined by Uozumi et al. (2008) fluctuates depending on the number of stations in the nightside
sector (LT = 18-06). If the number is few, EDst may include some local fluctuations: the partial ring current
component, substorm component and so on. Such local components cause some error in estimating the
baseline level of EU or EL. Therefore, we need to use as many stations' data as possible in order to derive
EU and EL properly.
Pacific region is one of the most difficult areas to measure the magnetic field near the dip equator, because
there are few islands. In the present paper, we developed a new method to use the data obtained from Ewa
Beach (EWA; G. Lat. = 21.32N, G. Long. = 158.0W, Dip Lat. = 38.03), Hawaii, USA for estimation of EDst.
EWA is not the equatorial station, but its nighttime H-component magnetic variations are found to be similar
to those of Christmas Island (CXI; G. Lat. = 2.05N, G. Long. = 157.5W, Dip Lat. = 5.24), Kiribati. Data from
EWA can be used as a proxy of that from CXI for monitoring temporal and long-term variations of the
equatorial electrojet (EEJ) in real time.
Acknowledgements: Authors appreciate Prof. Hisashi Utada of Earthquake Research Institute, University of
Tokyo for supplying the magnetometer data from Christmas Island, Kiribati. Our deepest gratitude goes to all
the members of the MAGDAS/CPMN project for their ceaseless support. Especially, we wish to thank the
staffs of the observation stations: Dr. Baylie Damtie (Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia; AAB), Dr. Ronald
Woodman Pollitt and Dr. Jose Ishitsuka (Instituto Geofisico del Peru; ANC), Fr. Daniel McNamara (Manila
Observatory, Philippines; DAV), Ms. Lynn Kaisan (NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, HI, USA; EWA), Dr.
Mazlan Othman and Dr. Mohd Fairos (National Space Agency, Ministry of Science, Technology and
Innovation, Malaysia; LKW) and Prof. Archana Bhattacharya (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, India; TIR) for
their kind cooperation.
SA51A-1548 Long-term Spectral Peaks of EEJ amplitudes observed by MAGDAS/CPMN
The ultimate goal of this study is to understand the couplings of, and independencies in, the Solar wind-
Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere (S-M-I-A) system. For this goal, in this paper we analyze ground
magnetometer data from the DAV, MUT and ANC stations. DAV (Davao, Philippines at GM lat.-1.37, GM
lon.196.53). MUT (Muntinlupa, Philippines at GM lat.6.26, GM lon.192.22). ANC (Ancon, Peru at GM lat.3.05,
GM lon.354.40). These are three stations of the MAGDAS/CPMN (MAGnetic Data Acquisition System/Circum-
pan Pacific Magnetometer Network). The MAGDAS/CPMN network has been constructed by SERC, Kyushu
University, and widely covers the world. DAV is located at the intersection of the 210 degree magnetic
meridian and the magnetic equator.
We examined the relationships among the EEJ (equatorial electrojet) amplitude, the F10.7 solar radiation
flux and the cowling conductivity. The EEJ flows roughly between the altitudes of 90km and 130km in the
ionosphere. The intensity of the EEJ increases especially around noon time between the geomagnetic
latitudes of +3deg and -3deg. We newly defined ethe EEJ amplitudef by subtracting the H-component
magnetic field at night time from the averaged H-component at daytime 10:30'12:30LT. The F10.7 is the
solar radiation flux (1 day data) measured at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical observatory, Canada
[ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/]. The cowling conductivity is estimated using the IRI model (International Reference
Ionosphere 2007 [http://iri.gsfc.nasa.gov/]).
We have analyzed spectral peaks of the EEJ amplitude at DAV, MUT and ANC and the F10.7 solar radiation
flux during the period from Jan. 1, 1999 to Dec. 31, 2001. Long-term variations of the EEJ amplitude having
the period of several months are focused, and compared those of with the F10.7 solar radiation flux. A strong
spectral peak of the EEJ amplitude at semi-annual period is found to show higher harmonic structure. Other
strong spectral peaks of the EEJ amplitude are also found at 32, 26.7 and 14.5 days. A strong spectral peaks
of F10.7 are also found at 365, 156~137, 26.7 days. These results suggest that the common period at 26.7
days between the EEJ amplitude and F10.7 is oscillated with the solar rotation. The spectral peaks periods at
semi-annual, 32 and 14.5 of the EEJ amplitude are not oscillated with the not solar radiation but must be
related with the ionospheric and atmospheric dynamics.
SA51A-1549 Prototype one day lead time forecasts of the magnetosphere with ENLIL and OpenGGCM
Forecasting the state of the magnetosphere is currently limited
to lead times of the order of 30 minutes when data from a L1
monitor are used. In order to improve the forecast window we use ENLIL, an established heliosphere model,
to first predict the solar wind state immediately upstream of Earth. The predicted solar wind and magnetic
field are then used to drive the OpenGGCM magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere model. With this
combination the magnetosphere state, for example ionosphere currents and magnetosphere particle fluxes,
can be forecast up to two days in advance. In this presentation we investigate the accuracy of such
predictions and we discuss the prospects for continuous magnetosphere ensemble forecasts utilizing novel
fast hardware such as the Cell based PS3 game consoles with appropriately optimized model software.
SA51A-1550 The Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE): A new facility for real-time magnetosphere-ionosphere monitoring
NSF is sponsoring a new facility to provide global, continuous determination of the Birkeland current system
using the Iridium satellite constellation. The Iridium network consists of 66 satellites in 780-km altitude,
circular, near-polar orbits, which are evenly distributed among six equally-spaced orbit planes. The satellites
in each orbit plane are spaced by nine minutes along track. The avionics of every satellite includes a vector
magnetometer that is sensitive enough to detect the magnetic perturbations of the Birkeland currents. While
the magnetometers are read rapidly on-board, only one vector sample per satellite is transmitted to the
ground once every 200 seconds for engineering monitoring. The corresponding latitude spacing is about 15
degrees, whereas degree-scale resolution is required to resolve the Birkeland currents. AMPERE will achieve
a 100-fold increase in the amount of data sent to the ground, thus allowing us to derive global Birkeland
current distributions with sub-degree latitude resolution every nine minutes. Because the data are transmitted
via the satellite network, data products will be available continuously in very-near-real time, within 20 minutes
of on orbit data acquisition. By providing 24/7 real-time observations of the Birkeland currents with global
coverage throughout all ranges of geomagnetic activity, AMPERE will be the first-ever facility to monitor the
electrodynamic state of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system throughout geomagnetic storms. The system
architecture, data products, and operation plans will be discussed together with the development tasks,
schedule, and status.
SA51A-1551 Comparison of AMIE modeled and Sondrestrom measured Joule heating: a study in model resolution and electric field/conductivity correlation
Joule heating by high-latitude ionospheric electric fields is
underestimated by global models, and the source of the underestimation is generally thought to be
"electric field variability," which is often interpreted to mean structure in the electric field
below the resolution of the electric field model. We investigate this and related issues by (1)
comparing the Joule heating measured by the Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar during a 40
hour period containing a storm with the Joule heating modeled by the Assimilative Mapping of
Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) procedure; and (2) employing an M-I coupling model to analyze
the dependence of Joule heating estimates on the spatial-resolution of the inputs, to facilitate
the AMIE and Sondrestrom comparison. We find that, as compared with Sondrestrom measurements, a
much larger contribution from correlation between conductance and squared-electric-field (which is
positive for AMIE, and negative for Sondrestrom) partially compensates for a much smaller
mean-squared electric field, such that the overall average Joule heating rate modeled by AMIE is
29% less than measured by Sondrestrom. The underestimation of the mean-squared electric field
was not associated with small-temporal-scale variability. Using the MI coupling model it is shown
that one way to explain the correlation-contribution is by a difference in spatial resolution,
although an alternative explanation is found in effects related to AMIE's reliance on
magnetometers. Surprisingly, the M-I coupling model also finds that coarse spatial resolution
causes overestimation of the Joule heating rate, due to the finding that the
sub-resolution-scale spacial-fluctuations in conductance and squared-electric-field are
anticorrelated. When comparing estimates of the total Joule heating over a period of time, the
increased Joule heating arises as a larger contribution from temporal-correlation between
conductance and squared-squared-electric-field, which overcompensates for the reduced mean-squared
electric field.
SA51A-1552 Imaging geospace electrons using Thomson scattering: A new tool for operational space weather monitoring
Observing Thomson scattered, visible solar radiation provides a means to directly and globally image the
electron distributions in the Earth's ionosphere, plasmasphere, and the
magnetosphere. Such observations would provide a revolutionary capability to directly observe for the first
time how electron densities in the near-Earth space environment respond to forcing from the solar wind,
leading to great improvements to and likely evolution of now data-starved operational space environment
forecasting models. Images of Thomson scattered light have been used successfully to observe the solar
electron corona and heliospheric structures such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and co-rotating
interaction regions (CIRs). We investigate the feasibility of adapting this remote sensing technique to directly
image the electrons in geospace for the first time. The brightness of Thomson scattered solar radiation from
geospace is computed using line of sight electron column densities provided by the SAMI3 model of the
ionosphere, coupled to the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global MHD model of the magnetosphere. While the
calculated Thomson scattering brightness from geospace electrons is faint compared to the expected
background sources (e.g. zodiacal light, instrumental scattered light) we show that it is feasible, although
challenging, to make this measurement. We present our preliminary mission concept and our proposed path
toward an operational space environment monitoring system.
SA51A-1553 Current and Future Development of the Operational Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)
The DoD Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model for ionospheric specification and
prediction went operational in at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) in December 2006. The current
operational version of GAIM uses a physics-based model of the ionosphere and a Kalman filter as a basis for
assimilating a diverse set of measurements in near real time. The physics-based model is the Ionosphere
Forecast Model (IFM), which is global and covers the E-region, F-region, and topside from 90 km to 1400 km
and includes the five ions NO+, O2+, N2+, O+, and H+. The operational model originally ingested data from
DISS Ionosondes, ground-based GPS, and in-situ electron density measurements from the Defense
Meteorological Satellites Program (DMSP) satellites. During the last two years, GAIM has been upgraded to
ingest a variety of data types from the Special Sensor Ultraviolet Limb Imager (SSULI) and Special Sensor
Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager (SSUSI) ultraviolet sensors on the DMSP satellites. A variety of additional
improvements to GAIM are planned over the next five years, including the use of new space weather data
products, improved model resolution and computational performance, and improved physics modeling of the
upper atmosphere. An overview of the current status and future plans for the project will be presented, along
with an overview of what the many researchers and software engineers have accomplished since the
program started as a DoD Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) in 1999.
SA51A-1554 A Statistical Comparison of Vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) from Three Ionospheric Models
Total electron content (TEC) exhibits significant variations in both space and time depending upon latitude,
longitude, solar cycle, UTC, and season; these variations can have potentially negative effects on
communication and navigation systems. Recently, three models have provided accurate results in
reconstructing and/or calculating real-time (or near real-time) vertical TEC values: the Utah State University
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (USU GAIM) Gauss-Markov Kalman Filter Model, the United
States Total Electron Content (US-TEC) Model, and the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere
electrodynamics (CTIPe) Model. This research offers a statistical comparison of the vertical TEC outputs
from the previously mentioned models on both a global and local (over the continental US) scale during the
month of July 2008. We present the average difference and root mean square difference (RMS difference)
for three different model comparisons (e.g. US-TEC vs. GAIM, US-TEC vs. CTIPe, and GAIM vs. CTIPe).
We have documented certain model biases and the differences measured between corresponding data
points among the models relative to each comparison. Two out of the three comparisons showed that the
US-TEC model's bias predicted higher values of vertical TEC relative to the other models, while the third
comparison revealed a small bias in the CTIPe model to forecast greater vertical TEC values when compared
to the GAIM model. By computing the RMS difference, we can better examine the source of these biases
relative to the aforementioned model comparisons. This is the first step in documenting the biases, errors,
and uncertainties associated with these three models.
SA51A-1555 Frequency-Agile Distributed-Sensor System (FADSS) for the Specification of HF Communication Links: Sporadic E Layer Specification
The outstanding problem faced by HF operational systems is that ionospheric weather variability is beyond
current modeling capabilities. Currently only climatological modeling of the ionosphere is used to specify
available HF paths. One significant problem in specifying HF propagation characteristics is the dynamic and
unpredictable influence of sporadic E layer occurrence. The presence or absence of sporadic E layers often
dominate the HF propagation characteristics.
Space Environment Corporation has been developing a distributed sensor network of inexpensive,
frequency-agile, beacon monitors that can potentially provide a real-time description of the space weather
effects on HF communication systems. This array of software radios is dynamically programmed to measure
GPS variations and received signal strengths from select beacons from VLF through HF along a multitude of
propagation paths. Through a real-time network, the information is processed to both optimize the
frequency selection of the sensors as well as to provide information about the prevailing ionospheric weather
conditions.
In this paper, we describe the results of a limited deployment of 7 sensors in the Western United States.
These data demonstrate capability in determining the temporal, spatial, and magnitude of sporadic E events.
A larger deployment of sensors can be used to map these transient structures and provide real-time HF
propagation characteristics associated with strong sporadic E events.
Acknowledgment: We wish to acknowledge the support of AF-SBIR Funding support through Contract
FA8718-07-C-0016.
SA51A-1556 Full-wave reflection of lightning long-wave radio pulses from the ionospheric D- region
A model is developed for calculating ionospheric reflection of electromagnetic pulses emitted by lightning,
with most energy in the long-wave spectral region (f = 3 - 100 kHz). The building-block of the calculation is a
differential-equation full-wave solution of Maxwell's Equations for the complex reflection of individual plane
waves incident from below, by the anisotropic, dissipative, diffuse dielectric profile of the lower ionosphere.
This full-wave solution is then put into a summation over plane waves in an angular Direct Fourier Transform
to obtain the reflection properties of curved wavefronts. This step models also the diffraction effects of long-
wave ionospheric reflections observed at short or medium range (200 - 500 km). The calculation can be
done with any arbitrary but smooth dielectric profile versus altitude. For an initial test, we use the classic D-
region exponential profiles of electron density and collision rate given by Wait. With even these simple
profiles, our model of full-wave reflection of curved wavefronts captures some of the basic attributes of
observed reflected waveforms recorded with the Los Alamos Sferic Array.
SA51A-1557 Forecasting Equatorial Scintillation Activity in Real-time
It is well-known that the generation of equatorial, F-region plasma density irregularities, via the Generalized
Rayleigh-Taylor instability mechanism is critically dependent on the magnitude of the pre-reversal
enhancement (PRE) in upward ExB drift velocity after sunset. These plasma density "bubbles" that are
generated after sunset lead to the "scintillation" of trans-ionospheric radio wave signals that pass through
these bubbles and is commonly referred to as "scintillation activity". Communication and Navigation systems
can be severely disrupted by these plasma density irregularities. A measure of scintillation activity is given
by the "S4 Index" and a network of Air Force, ground-based UHF and L-band receivers measuring the S4
Index is called the SCIntillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) network. This paper describes a technique for
automatically forecasting, in real-time, the occurrence or non-occurrence of scintillation activity that relies on
real-time data from a ground-based ionospheric sounder at or near the geomagnetic equator. After sunset,
the height-rise with time of the bottom-side of the F-layer reflects the magnitude of the upward ExB drift
velocity. The value of the ionospheric parameter, h'f (the virtual height of the bottom-side F-layer) at 1930 LT
reflects the integrated ExB drift effect on lifting the F-layer to an altitude where the Rayleigh-Taylor instability
mechanism becomes important. Incorporating observed h'f values from the Jicamarca, Peru digital sounder
at 1930 LT and relating these values to the Total Hourly S4 Index (THS4) observed by the UHF receiver at
the Ancon, Peru SCINDA site, it is found that a "threshold" in h'f exists below which, THS4 < 1 (no
scintillation activity) and above which THS4 > 1 (scintillation activity). Examples of Jicamarca sounder
observations and h'f values prior to the onset of scintillation activity are given. We present results that
describe how the threshold value of h'f changes with solar cycle activity and how these results have been
incorporated into a real-time capability for automatically forecasting scintillation activity that is available on
Google Earth to all interested parties.
SA51A-1558 GUVI Spectrograph Mode Observations of the Mid-Latitude Ionosphere
GUVI has compiled nearly seven years of observations of the ionosphere since its launch in December 2001.
Since 2007, GUVI has been operated in "spectrograph" mode. In spectrograph mode the scan mirror is held
fixed and the instrument records and downlinks the entire spectrum. This mode is operationally useful
because it provides a new view of the ionosphere: we now have the signal to noise ratio to make
observations of the solar minimum ionosphere at high spatial resolution on the disk. The increased effective
sensitivity of GUVI at 135.6 nm in spectrograph mode has allowed us to observe the optical signature of
medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs). MSTIDs have been observed frequently by
ground-based instruments but global space-based observations have been limited to date. We will present
initial results including characterization of the spatial structure of MSTIDs observed along the GUVI orbit path
as it precesses through varying longitudes and local times. GUVI data and data products are routinely
provided to AFWA by APL; we will discuss ways to improve GUVI mid-latitude products for operational use.
http://www-etph.physik.uni-kiel.de/missions/soho/costep/realtime/forecast/
http://hbksw1.stelab.nagoya-
u.ac.jp/
http://akmag.net/
http://ampere.jhuapl.edu
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov