SA53C-01
Progress and Status on the Development of NASA's Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model
The NASA Applied Sciences Program recently selected a project for funding through the Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences (ROSES) solicitation. The project objective is to develop a nowcast prediction of air-crew radiation exposure from both background galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particle events (SEP) that may accompany solar storms. The new air-crew radiation exposure model is called the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model. NAIRAS will provide global, data-driven, real-time radiation dose predictions of biologically harmful radiation at commercial airline altitudes. Observations are utilized from the ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the NCEP reanalysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the incident GCR and SEP particle flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. In this paper we discuss the concept and design of the NAIRAS model, and present recent progress in the implementation and give examples of the model results. Specifically, we show predictions of representative annual background exposure levels and radiation exposure levels for selected SEP events during solar cycle 23, with emphasis on the high-latitude and polar region. We also characterize the suppression of the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity during these storm periods and their subsequent influence on atmospheric radiation exposure. We discuss the key uncertainties and areas that need improvement in both model and data, the timeline for project completion, and access to model results.
SA53C-02
Products, Data, and Science at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center for Satellite Anomaly Mitigation and Resolution
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one of the nation's primary sources for real-time operational space weather data and products, has made a renewed commitment to providing services targeted toward the needs of the satellite industry. Currently, SWPC provides data and products describing the space radiation environment at both geosynchronous and low Earth orbit. Here we review the services now available through the SPWC website and discuss future plans for a site dedicated to understanding and mitigating the effect of space radiation on satellite systems. Upcoming enhancements will include the Space Environmental Anomalies Expert System for geosynchronous orbit developed by the Aerospace Corporation that provides both a real time and historical description of the space radiation environment that can be used to gauge the likelihood of a satellite anomaly related to internal and external charging, single event upsets, and total dose effects. Suggestions for service improvements or additions are welcome.
SA53C-03 INVITED
Applying Research Models and Data to Space Weather Products and Services
The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has evaluated its customers and their requirements and identified a number of key areas where improvements in service can be achieved. A key element of these improvements is to use research models and data in the operational environment of SWPC. Currently, this process is initiated by multi-agency activities and completed at SWPC. The future holds great promise with the development of a Space Weather Prediction Testbed. In this presentation, we will identify the areas where critical advances in research are needed. This will be followed by a description of the models that will be made operational both in the near term as well as those that are further down the road. Then we will present the concept of the Space Weather Prediction Testbed and the plans for accepting models and implementing the transition process through this new Testbed.
SA53C-04 INVITED
AFWA Space Weather Operations: Specifying and Forecasting the Operational Environment for the Warfighter
The effects of space weather on modern military systems can range from mere annoyances to catastrophic system outages and failures. Knowing the timing and severity of mission-impacting space weather is crucial to mitigating and overcoming its effects. The 2nd Weather Squadron's Space Weather Flight at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) faces the daily challenge of forecasting space weather to support US warfighters and other DoD customers. The forecaster's success depends on the combined efforts of other AFWA personnel involved in technology transition and space weather program management to deliver the latest technology to operations. As the DoD lead for space weather, AFWA provides timely, accurate, and relevant space weather data and forecasts. This presentation will give an overview of infrastructure that makes this possible, highlight the current state of the GAIM and HAF models, and explore future required capabilities. A new delivery of the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) model is on the horizon, as well as the delivery of the Space Weather Modeling System (SWMS), the first coupled solar wind-ionospheric model in operations. This will enhance the quality of the GAIM forecast out to 5 days.
SA53C-05
Overview and Status of the Space Weather System-Impact Products for the SSA Environmental Effects Fusion System (SEEFS)
The Space Vehicles Directorate of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL/RVBX) and the Space Environment Division of the Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC SYAG/SED) have combined efforts to design, develop, test, implement, and validate numerical and graphical products for Air Force Space Command's (AFSPC) Space Situational Awareness Environmental Effects Fusion System (SEEFS). These products are generated to analyze, specify, and forecast the effects of the near-earth space environment on Department of Defense weapons, navigation, communications, and surveillance systems. Jointly developed projects that have been completed as prototypes and are undergoing development for real-time operations include a SEEFS architecture and database, five system-impact products, and a high-level decision aid product. This first round of SEEFS products includes the Solar Radio Burst Effects (SoRBE) on radar and satellite communications, Radar Auroral Clutter (RAC), Scintillation Effects on radar and satellite communications (RadScint and SatScint), and Satellite Surface and Deep Charge/Discharge (Char/D) products. The SEEFS architecture and database enable modular use and execution of the SEEFS products, and the high-level Decision Aid shows the combined effects of all SEEFS product output on a given asset and on multi-asset missions. This presentation will provide general overviews and status update of the SEEFS program, along with details of the first round of products expected to be operational for use in exercises and/or real-time operations in 2009.