U24A-01
Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios
Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.
U24A-02
Role of Earth Sciences in Assessing and Planning for Potential Environmental and Health Impacts of Disasters
Natural and anthropogenic disasters (e.g., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, urban fires, landslides, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, industrial spills, terrorist attacks) can produce copious solid, gaseous, or liquid materials of potential environmental and public-health concern. Examples include: contaminated and/or pathogen-bearing waters, dusts, soils, and sediments; liquids; gases; smoke; ash; and debris. Many of these materials are derived from the earth, and geochemical processes influence their environmental and health impacts. Yet, process-focused earth-science expertise and methods are often underutilized in disaster response and planning. Using results from USGS responses to the World Trade Center collapse, Hurricane Katrina, the 2007 southern California wildfires, and the Indonesian LUSI mud eruption as examples, this presentation will illustrate the earth science role, examine lessons learned, and underscore future opportunities for interdisciplinary collaboration in disaster response and planning. Important contributions can be made from across the earth science disciplines, including geology, geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, remote sensing, geomicrobiology, and others. During a disaster, earth scientists can, in collaboration with emergency managers, public health experts, and ecologists: characterize the physical, chemical, and microbial makeup of materials generated by the disaster; identify source(s) of the materials; monitor, map, and/or model dispersal and evolution of materials in the environment; understand how the materials are modified by environmental processes; identify key characteristics and processes that influence the materials' toxicity to exposed humans and ecosystems; and estimate shifts away from pre-disaster environmental baseline conditions. Results from past responses can be used to anticipate and plan for future disasters. As part of disaster preparedness, earth scientists can: measure pre-disaster environmental baseline conditions; develop models for the environmental behavior and effects of materials generated by similar types of disasters; develop a resource of appropriate data and methods that can be used to enhance future responses; and work with emergency planners to help mitigate effects of and improve resiliency to future environmental disasters.
U24A-03
The role of ground water in water-supply emergency planning
Catastrophic events, such as earthquakes or floods, can result in water-supply disruptions. Such disruptions can cause large economic losses and pose threats to public health. Water managers seek to develop cost- effective strategies for reducing these risks and ensuring water security. In many areas, ground water can play an important role in such water-supply emergency planning. We present a probabilistic framework for estimating the hydraulic impacts and associated costs of using ground water as a backup supply in the event of a disruption in imported-water deliveries. We also estimate the benefits of ground-water management strategies, such as artificial recharge, in terms of reduced costs of responding to water-supply emergencies. The magnitude of these benefits will depend on the expected severity and duration of the imported-water disruption, the functioning of the hydrogeologic system, and economic parameters. We apply the framework to address water-supply emergency planning in the Los Angeles area. A simulation model is used to generate response functions, which relate emergency ground-water pumpage to potential adverse effects, such as increased pumping lifts, subsidence, and seawater intrusion. These response functions are incorporated into a Monte Carlo analysis, along with cost coefficients and information on the probable severity of the disruption. Disruption severity is represented by a probability distribution, which can be elicited from water managers. In the example, the primary emergency-related benefits of artificial recharge are reductions in potential subsidence costs. The framework could be extended to consider additional engineering factors (e.g., well capacities and integrity of local distribution systems), institutional arrangements, and regulatory requirements.
U24A-04
Development and Analysis of Global, High-Resolution Diagnostic Metrics for Vegetation Monitoring, Yield Estimation and Famine Mitigation
Drought, through its impact on food scarcity and crop prices, can have significant economic, social, and environmental impacts - presently, up to 36 countries and 73 million people are facing food crises around the globe. Because of these adverse affects, there has been a drive to develop drought and vegetation- monitoring metrics that can quantify and predict human vulnerability/susceptibility to drought at high- resolution spatial scales over the entire globe. Here we introduce a new vegetation-monitoring index utilizing data derived from satellite-based instruments (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer - MODIS) designed to identify the vulnerability of vegetation in a particular region to climate variability during the growing season. In addition, the index can quantify the percentage of annual grid-point vegetation production either gained or lost due to climatic variability in a given month. When integrated over the growing season, this index is shown to be better correlated with end-of-season crop yields than traditional remotely-sensed or meteorological indices. In addition, in-season estimates of the index, which are available in near real-time, provide yield forecasts comparable to concurrent in situ objective yield surveys, which are only available in limited regions of the world. Overall, the cost effectiveness and repetitive, near-global view of earth's surface provided by this satellite-based vegetation monitoring index can potentially improve our ability to mitigate human vulnerability/susceptibility to drought and its impacts upon vegetation and agriculture.
U24A-05
Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
The predictability of tropical cyclones using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) is demonstrated with 3 severe cyclones in the Indian Ocean and 1 supertyphoon from the northwest Pacific, which include: Gonu, Sidr, and Man-Yi from 2007 and Nargis from 2008. While TC genesis forecasts are assumed to have little skill beyond 48 hours, we show that these projections can provide considerable lead-time with the ECMWF ensembles on average, correctly projecting the date of genesis and location of TC formation 5.5 days in advance. In addition, the ECMWF EPS shows considerable skill in track forecasts for both timing and location of movement especially in the 7 to 10 day range for all four tropical cyclones. While TC intensity forecasts are generally underestimated—attributed to the reduced resolution in the ECMWF ensembles—these intensity projections, especially for large tropical cyclones, can provide several days of additional lead-time that is not currently provided. This extra lead-time is vitally important in countries where coastal evacuations and disaster preparations are particularly slow. The potential forecasting benefits using the ECMWF EPS for tropical cyclones is reviewed in conjunction with a separate presentation in how this information can be used to mitigate disaster risk for countries in coastal areas of the Northern Indian Ocean.
U24A-06
Volcano Disaster Risk Reduction: A Detailed Gap Analysis From Data Collection to User Implementation
While numerous global initiatives exist for addressing the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking of eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, the results of which are presented herein. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations on strategies for minimizing or eliminating certain gaps are also provided.
U24A-07
THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT: Earthquake Science for 22 Million People
Earthquake science is being communicated to and used by the 22 million residents of southern California to
improve resiliency to future earthquakes through the Great Southern California ShakeOut. The ShakeOut
began when the USGS partnered with the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake
Center and many other organizations to bring 300 scientists and engineers together to formulate a
comprehensive description of a plausible major earthquake, released in May 2008, as the ShakeOut
Scenario, a description of the impacts and consequences of a M7.8 earthquake on the Southern San
Andreas Fault (USGS OFR2008-1150).
The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill
in United States history. The ShakeOut drill occurred in houses, businesses, and public spaces throughout
southern California at 10AM on November 13, 2008, when southern Californians were asked to pretend that
the M7.8 scenario earthquake had occurred and to practice actions that could reduce the impact on their
lives. Residents, organizations, schools and businesses registered to participate in the drill through
www.shakeout.org where they could get accessible information about the scenario earthquake and share
ideas for better reparation. As of September 8, 2008, over 2.7 million confirmed participants had been
registered. The primary message of the ShakeOut is that what we do now, before a big earthquake, will
determine what our lives will be like after.
The goal of the ShakeOut has been to change the culture of earthquake preparedness in southern
California, making earthquakes a reality that are regularly discussed. This implements the sociological finding
that 'milling,' discussing a problem with loved ones, is a
prerequisite to taking action. ShakeOut milling is taking place at all levels from individuals and families, to
corporations and governments. Actions taken as a result of the ShakeOut include the adoption of earthquake
response technologies by Los Angeles Unified School District and a top to bottom examination of Los
Angeles County Fire Department's earthquake response strategies.
http://www.shakeout.org
U24A-08
Research for Stakeholders: Delivering the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario to Golden Guardian Emergency Exercise Planners
The ShakeOut Scenario of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault was developed
to fit needs of end users, particularly emergency managers at Federal, State, and local levels. Customization
has continued after initial publication. The Scenario, a collaboration among some 300 experts in physical
and social sciences, engineering, and industry, was released in May, 2008, to a key planning conference for
the November 2008 Golden Guardian Exercise series. According to long-standing observers, the 2008
exercise is the most ambitious of their experience. The scientific foundation has attracted a large number of
participants and there are already requests to continue use of the Scenario in 2009. Successful exercises
cover a limited range of capabilities, in order to test performance in measurable ways, and to train staff
without overwhelming them. Any one exercise would fail if it attempted to capture the complexity of impacts
from a major earthquake. Instead, exercise planners have used the Scenario like a magnifying glass to
identify risk and capabilities most critical to their own jurisdictions. Presentations by Scenario scientists and a
16-page narrative provided an initial overview. However, many planners were daunted in attempts to extract
details from a 300-page report, 12 supplemental studies, and 10 appendices, or in attempts to cast the
reality into straightforward events to drive successful exercises. Thus we developed an evolving collection of
documents, presentations, and consultations that included impacts to specific jurisdictions; distillations of
damages and consequences; and annotated lists of capabilities and situations to consider. Some exercise
planners needed realistic extrapolations beyond posited damages; others sought reality checks; yet others
needed new formats or perspectives. Through all this, it was essential to maintain flexibility, assisting
planners to adjust findings where appropriate, while indicating why some results could not be changed. The
results of these efforts have been exercises that use a richer set of scientific findings; planners and
participants with a broader understanding of the regional impacts of a major earthquake; and for future
scenarists, increased insight into emergency management application of hazard science results, and into the
value of ongoing engagement with stakeholders.
http://urbanearth.usgs.gov
U24A-09
SCIENCE AND STRATEGIC SECURITY---GLOBAL CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS
Energy of weather systems greatly exceeds energy produced and used by humans. Variation in this energy causes climate variability potentially resulting in local, national, and/or global catastrophes beyond our ability to deter the loss of life and economic destabilization. Large scale natural disasters routinely result in shortages of water, disruption of energy supplies, and destruction of infrastructure. The resulting unforeseen and disastrous events occurring beyond national emergency preparation, as related to climate variability, could insight civil unrest due to dwindling and/or inaccessible resources necessary for survival. Lack of these necessary resources in impacted countries often leads to wars. Climate change coupled with population growth, which exposes more of the population to potential risks associated with climate and environmental change, demands faster technological response. Understanding climate/associated environmental changes, the relation to human activity and behavior, and including this in national and international emergency/security management plans would alleviate shortcomings in our present and future technological status. The scale of environmental change will determine the potential magnitude of civil unrest at the local, national, and/or global level along with security issues at each level. Commonly, security issues related to possible civil unrest owing to temporal environmental change is not part of a short and/or long-term strategy, yet recent large-scale disasters are reminders that system failures (as in hurricane Katrina) include acknowledged breaches to individual, community, and infrastructure security. Without advance planning and management concerning environmental change, oncoming and climate related events will intensify the level of devastation and human catastrophe. Depending upon the magnitude and period of catastrophic events and/or environmental changes, destabilization of agricultural systems, energy supplies, and other lines of commodities often results in severely unbalanced supply and demand ratios, which eventually affect the entire global community. National economies potentially risk destabilization, which is especially important since economics plays a major role in strategic planning. This presentation will address these issues and the role that science can play in human sustainability and local, national, and international security.