U41D-0028
Investigation of FEWS NET Requirements for Earth Observation of Precipitation and Vegetation
A questionnaire was disseminated to expert end-users and experts in Earth science information for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET provides monitoring and early warning support to the U.S. Agency for International Development and to other decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity and preventing famine. To achieve this, FEWS NET utilizes a variety of data types, including satellite remote sensing data to identify climatic hazards that threaten subsistence agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Local and regional representatives in developing countries who have direct interaction with the data provide interpretations that inform program decision makers. This review was conducted to elicit Earth observation requirements for FEWS NET. In particular, FEWS NET uses satellite observations to monitor rainfall and vegetation conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. This review focused upon operational requirements of FEWS NET end-users to determine the necessary qualities of useful remote sensing data and, subsequently, the desired properties of certain biophysical predictions. The review was implemented in 2007, as an on-line questionnaire, completed by over 40 experts from around the world, and was designed to refine FEWS NET input requirements. This allowed a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly, both informing current funded work and providing a model for rapid requirements definition for Earth science applications. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products. The requirements investigated covered a range of temporal and spatial properties of inputs, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. Requirements necessary to enhance FEWS NET were determined; overall, it was recognized that both rainfall and vegetation were valued, as remotely sensing data that provide actionable food security information for FEWS NET.
U41D-0029
Building Low Carbon Cities: Framework to Design and Evaluate Alternative Technologies and Policies for Land Use Planning
Annex I parties of the Kyoto Protocol are facing even greater pressures to fulfill their commitment for GHG reduction as they enter the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 2008-2012. In Japanese context, one such challenge is to reduce CO2 emissions from the household and business sectors because CO2 emissions from the both sectors has increased by 12% and 20% respectively since 1990 while the industry has achieved 21% of CO2 emissions reduction. Land use planning, which, either directly or indirectly, controls appropriate uses for land within jurisdictions, might play very important roles to deal with CO2 reductions from the household and business sectors. In this research, aiming at effective reductions of air- conditioning energy consumption and resultant CO2 emissions from the household and business sectors, the framework to design and evaluate land use planning was developed. The design and evaluation processes embraced in this framework consist of GIS database, technology and policy inventory for planning, one- dimensional urban canopy model which evaluate urban climate at neighborhood level and air-conditioning load calculation procedure. The GIS database provides spatial information of target areas such as land use, building use and road networks, which, then, helps design alternative land use plans. The technology and policy inventory includes various planning options ranging from those for land over control to those for building energy control, which, combined with the GIS database, serves for planning process. The urban canopy model derives vertical profiles of local climate, such as temperature and humidity, using the information of land use, building height and so on, aided by the GIS database. Vertical profiles of the urban climate are then utilized to derive air-conditioning load and associated CO2 emissions for each building located in target areas. The framework developed was applied to the coastal district of Kawasaki, Japan, with an area of 40 square kilometers, for August 2006, to explore effective combinations of technologies and policies for land use planning. Six alternative land use policies were designed, including BaU in which current land use continues, and were, then, evaluated to seek more effective alternatives. Our findings suggested that about 541 MWh power and 204 tons of CO2 emission be saved at maximum by greening building sites, introducing water retentive pavement and installing energy-saving technologies for buildings in an appropriate manner.
U41D-0030
Requirements for a Global Greenhouse Gas Information System
A global greenhouse gas information system will prove a critical component of any successful effort to mitigate climate change which relies on limiting the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. The system will provide the situational awareness necessary to actively reduce emissions, influence land use change, and sequester carbon. The information from such a system will be subject to intense scrutiny. Therefore, an effective system must openly and transparently produce data of unassailable quality. A global greenhouse gas information system will likely require a combination of space-and air-based remote- sensing assets, ground-based measurements, carbon cycle modeling and self-reporting. The specific requirements on such a system will be shaped by the degree of international cooperation it enjoys and the needs of the policy regime it aims to support, which might range from verifying treaty obligations, to certifying the tradable permits and offsets underlying a market in greenhouse gas emission reductions, to providing a comprehensive inventory of high and low emitters that could be used by non-governmental organizations and other international actors. While some technical studies have examined particular system components in single scenarios, there remains a need for a comprehensive survey of the range of potential requirements, options, and strategies for the overall system. We have initiated such a survey and recently hosted a workshop which engaged a diverse community of stakeholders to begin synthesizing requirements for such a system, with an initial focus on carbon dioxide. In this paper we describe our plan for completing the definition of the requirements, options, and strategies for a global greenhouse gas monitoring system. We discuss our overall approach and provide a status on the initial requirements synthesis activity.
U41D-0031
A multi-scale decision support system for the analysis of the effects of USDA NRCS conservation programs in Michigan.
This presentation summarizes a 4 year Cooperative Agreement between the Michigan NRCS and the Michigan Tech Research Institute that has focused on the integration of geospatial data to assess and quantify the effectiveness of farm conservation programs in the state of Michigan. We review projects from a small watershed scale to a statewide analysis of environmental factors affected by NRCS conservation programs. On the local scale, we have characterized and analyzed 2005-2007 water quality and land-use data to investigate how a study watershed responds to storm events and changing agricultural land use. On the statewide scale, we have completed an example of an Environmental Quality Index (EQI) that includes geospatial data on soil condition, surface water health, land habitat integrity, and air quality. Geospatial results are derived from imagery analysis, published models, and GIS data sources. The data is integrated into a web-based decision support system that provides access to the model with weightings based on expert NRCS input and the ability to customize weights to analyze the effect of different conservation practices. The EQI tool enables the MI NRCS to compare environmental quality to levels of conservation effort, and includes examples of longer-term change for water quality and riparian habitat.
U41D-0032
Drainage Basins as Large-Scale Field Laboratories of Change: Hydro-biogeochemical- economic Model Study Support for Water Pollution and Eutrophication Management Under Uncertainty
Excess nutrient and pollutant releases from various point and diffuse sources at and below the land surface, associated with land use, industry and households, pose serious eutrophication and pollution risks to inland and coastal water ecosystems worldwide. These risks must be assessed, for instance according to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD demands economically efficient, basin-scale water management for achieving and maintaining good physico-chemical and ecological status in all the inland and coastal waters of EU member states. This paper synthesizes a series of hydro-biogeochemical and linked economic efficiency studies of basin-scale waterborne nutrient and pollutant flows, the development over the last decades up to the current levels of these flows, the main monitoring and modelling uncertainties associated with their quantification, and the effectiveness and economic efficiency of different possible abatement strategies for abating them in order to meet WFD requirements and other environmental goals on local, national and international levels under climate and other regional change. The studies include different Swedish and Baltic Sea drainage basins. Main findings include quantification of near-coastal monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient and pollutant memory in the subsurface (soil-groundwater-sediment) water systems of drainage basins. The former may significantly mask nutrient and pollutant loads to the sea while the latter may continue to uphold large loads to inland and coastal waters long time after source mitigation. A methodology is presented for finding a rational trade-off between the two resource-demanding options to reduce, or accept and explicitly account for the uncertainties implied by these monitoring gaps and long-term nutrient-pollution memories and time lags, and other knowledge, data and model uncertainties that limit the effectiveness and efficiency of water pollution and eutrophication management.
U41D-0033
An Application of Narrowing the Information Gap Between Data Providers and Decision Makers Through a Disaster Response Scenario
A scenario-based distributed information system for operationally building the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) is presented as part of Northrop Grumman's participation in the GEOSS ten- year Architecture Implementation Pilot plan. Northrop Grumman is responding to the application challenge of implementing GEOSS capabilities by adding several U.S. Global Earth Observing (USGEO) data providers through architecture development and multiple scenario demonstrations, one of which is Natural Disaster Response. The scenarios ensure responders collaborate with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Societal Benefit Area working groups and external agencies. A six-stage disaster cycle is executed for a major hurricane and flooding scenario on the Port of Houston that incorporates multiple user communities and demonstrates how communities of practice may be applied to extend information sharing in response to disasters. The scenario is user driven and uses products derived from existing earth observing systems. The enterprise model for this hurricane and flooding scenario depicts an end-to-end approach to executing disaster response management. The centrality of the community portal in creating a coordinated disaster response cannot be overstated. Northrop Grumman has reached interoperability agreements with multiple community data providers whose goal is to make their data and products accessible as "persistent exemplars" within GEOSS to global users and decision makers. As multiple GEO community members integrate their data and services into GEOSS, the whole of GEOSS becomes much more than the sum of its components; however, GEOSS must deliver high-value information easily understood by decision makers through smart source selection. When this occurs, and GEOSS becomes operational, the information gap will narrow between systems, providers, analysts, and decision makers.
U41D-0034
Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change
When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of anthropogenic climate change is to estimate the long-term worldwide fatality rate. For asteroids, the average is about a hundred deaths per year--about half of which are climate-change related. By contrast, the World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that 150,000 deaths per year are currently attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Both estimates are similarly impacted by uncertainty in our understanding of climate change and statistical attribution of indirect causes. The WHO estimate is a lower bound, because it does not account for the unknown probability of a human-triggered abrupt climate change comparable to the speed or magnitude of the Bolling/Allerod or Younger Dryas boundaries, which are not impact related. Nevertheless, by any objective measure the impact threat is minuscule (by a factor of at least a thousand) compared to the threat from anthropogenic climate change. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
U41D-0035
USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario
The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to
demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including
earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user
community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss
reduction and improved resiliency.
The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It
detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San
Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the
earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering,
social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific
understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity
management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response
exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org).
USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the
earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and
consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris
flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour,
road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the
vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the
resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land
subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems.
Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible
physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and
economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days,
weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as
well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for
this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.
http://urbanearth.usgs.gov
U41D-0036
Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change
Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media/information operations model. Each of these models focuses on part of the overall picture while; each contributes information about its area of expertise to a common pool and draws from that pool and the feedbacks from the other models as needed. Existing high-quality physical models are based on analysis of the dynamic interactions of atmospheric, land, and ocean processes. The demographic model tracks the civilian demographics needed by the other models. The populations of neighborhood group age-gender cohorts are affected by births, deaths, aging, and migration. This model provides labor supply and product demand curves to the economic model. The political model focuses on political actors and describes how they use their clout to seek their goals. Clout is derived from civilian support, the formal and informal alliances that actors make with each other, military strength, wealth, and control of information. It considers how they are constrained by their cultural heritage. It deals with shifting alliances. The economic model determines local and international prices and production quantities for a small number of products, including imports and exports and black markets; wages, jobs, and unemployment for a small number of labor categories; capital, growth, and inflation; resource usage and pollution. The media/information operations model addresses the effects of the control and content of inter- group and intra-group communications—and the side effects of these on other groups. This model will consist of rules (probably a large number of them) detailing the effects of media/information operations of various kinds on civilian parameters used in the other models, such as political goals, concern saliencies, and shapes of supply and demand curves.
U41D-0037
Global Change and Natural Resource Assessment: A New Look at a Traditional Form of Scientific Decision Support
Public concern about global change is directed at potential impacts on a wide range of natural resources. Recent scientific assessments have emphasized the urgent need for information about these impacts, especially at local and regional scales over the next few decades. New communication channels and mechanisms have emerged to enhance the flow of information between scientists and non-scientists. At the same time, traditional resource assessments - a long-standing venue for interaction between scientists and users of scientific information - have been difficult to sustain because they are often regarded as boring by scientists and irrelevant by decision makers. Long experience in natural resource assessments has led to established practices that fulfill many of the criteria needed for global change decision support. Resource assessments are practical, focusing on public needs over a continuum of spatial and temporal scales. They are transparent, frequently involving stakeholders in methodology development and data acquisition. They are comprehensive, encompassing a range of forms, occurrences, costs, and other contingencies. Most important, resource assessments are authoritative, providing objective and independent evaluation by scientists who are not involved in developing or using the resources. Resource assessments demand the full array of scientific and assessment capabilities. Monitoring and accounting are needed to inventory and report conditions that affect resource use. Basic research is needed to understand the important relationships and processes that control resource availability and vulnerability. Economic and social analysis is needed to understand relevant costs, benefits, risks, behaviors, and jurisdictions. Prognostic modeling is needed to anticipate future changes and interactions among geophysical and human influences. The application of these resource assessment capabilities to global change must confront critical problems identified in other recent scientific assessments. For example, although resource assessments traditionally quantify uncertainties, the uncertainties associated with global change cannot always be quantified in traditional ways. New approaches to contingent resource assessment may be required to estimate the availability of water - and resources that depend on water - under a range of climate change scenarios. Efforts to mitigate and adapt to global change have stimulated growing concern about resources such as carbon sequestration and ecosystem services, which require innovative assessment methodologies. New and interesting scientific challenges, building on long experience in providing scientific information for practical public needs, make natural resource assessments one of the most promising forms of global change decision support.