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AGU Position Statement

Meeting the Challenges of Natural Hazards

Adopted by Council December 1996
Revised and reaffirmed December 2000
Reaffirmed December 2004 and December 2005
Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007

Natural disasters in 2004 and 2005, including the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma, and the Kashmir earthquake, provided dramatic evidence of the hazards posed to the global community by the forces of Nature. Responsible for more than 350,000 deaths and combined economic losses on the order of US$300 billion, those powerful events ranked among the most deadly and costly disasters of the past 100 years.

According to UN sources, in 2008, for the first time, more people will live in cities than in rural areas. This global trend toward urbanization concentrates millions into dense megacities, many of which are vulnerable to natural hazards. Coastal communities are becoming more vulnerable due to increasing development, the destruction of natural defenses such as wetlands and sand dunes, and the growing risk associated with human influences on the Earth system, such as sea level rise. In megacities exposed to seismic hazards, inappropriate land-use and construction practices, along with population pressures, are also increasing vulnerability.

Increased scientific understanding of meteorological hazards is saving lives worldwide and mitigating catastrophe through short-term storm forecasting made possible by real-time data acquisition and high-performance computer modeling. However, other natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, space weather and even comet or asteroid impact often occur without warning despite current scientific understanding of their cause and behavior.

To respond to the challenges posed by natural hazards, Earth and space scientists and engineers must:

• Quantify the physical, chemical, and biological processes driving natural hazards, with the goals of: 1) short-term forecasting and the prediction of likely impacts on people, the built environment, and ecosystems; and 2) long-term risk assessment, including possible effects of climate change.
• Contribute to efforts aimed at reducing vulnerability to hazards by developing scientific, engineering, and societal strategies that adequately address risks associated with natural disasters and anthropogenic effects.
• Collaborate with social scientists, planners, and other professionals to educate the public, business leaders, and policy makers that tools and approaches exist to mitigate the impacts of extreme events and that by working together we can prevent them from becoming true catastrophes.

Governments and businesses can help scientists meet these challenges through investments in:

• Fundamental research into the links between extreme natural hazards and dynamic processes on Earth and in space.
• Real-time and long-term monitoring of active Earth processes from both Earth and space, and the collection, electronic archiving, management, and open sharing of data and models on natural hazards.
• Quantitative natural-hazard modeling that combines geophysical, ecological, societal, and economic aspects of disaster scenarios.
• Forecasting of extreme events and reducing predictive uncertainties.
• Comprehensive interdisciplinary research aimed at reducing vulnerability to both current and future natural hazards.
• Implementing effective strategies and designs for hazard mitigation and disaster management worldwide, with particular focus on the most risk-prone areas.