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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 24, NO. 22, PAGES 2737–2740, 1997

Rate Parameter Uncertainty Effects in Assessing Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Supersonic Aviation

Manvendra K. Dubey

Molecular Physics Laboratory, SRI International, Menlo Park CA


Gregory P. Smith

Molecular Physics Laboratory, SRI International, Menlo Park CA


W. Seth Hartley

Molecular Physics Laboratory, SRI International, Menlo Park CA


Douglas E. Kinnison

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA


Peter S. Connell

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA


Abstract

Box model sensitivity-uncertainty calculations for O3 depletion from supersonic aircraft emissions were performed at the most perturbed locale using localized outputs of the LLNL 2-D diurnally averaged assessment model. Processes controlling N2O5, catalytic O3 loss steps O+NO2 and HO2+O3, HOx sink reactions OH+ HNO3/HNO4, and the O+O2 recombination that forms O3 are identified as the dominant photochemical uncertainty sources. Guided by local sensitivities, 2-D model runs were repeated with 9 targeted input parameters altered to 1/3 of their l-σ uncertainties to put error-bounds on the predicted O3 change. Results indicate these kinetic errors can cause the predicted local O3 loss of 1.5% to be uncertain by up to 3% in regions of large aircraft NOx injection.

Received 15 April 1997; accepted 6 October 1997.

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Citation: Dubey, M. K., G. P. Smith, W. S. Hartley, D. E. Kinnison, and P. S. Connell (1997), Rate Parameter Uncertainty Effects in Assessing Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Supersonic Aviation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(22), 2737–2740.