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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pressure, density, and temperature
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composition and chemistry
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 25, NO. 3, PP. 353-356, 1998
doi:10.1029/97GL03701

Influences of anthropogenic and oceanic forcing on recent climate change

Chris K. Folland

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

David M. H. Sexton

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

David J. Karoly

Cooperative Research Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia

Colin E. Johnson

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

David P. Rowell

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

David E. Parker

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom

We report a new approach to climate change detection and attribution using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), complementary to the traditional approach using coupled ocean‐atmosphere models (CGCM). Ensembles of simulations were run with an AGCM forced with the observed history of sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice extent and repeated with a variety of forcing factors added incrementally. SST changes alone give a warming of only about 0.15°C in annual global land surface air temperature between 1950 and 1994. Addition of changing greenhouse gases, including off‐line calculations of tropospheric ozone, give a further warming of 0.15°C, still 0.2 °C less than observed. This deficit in warming derives from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter half‐year as the summer half‐year NH temperature is well‐simulated. In the lower stratosphere, little cooling is simulated using the observed changes of SST alone but increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases and decreasing the concentration of stratospheric ozone leads to a cooling close to that observed. Inclusion of changes to tropospheric ozone with other forcing factors, the first time this has been attempted, gives good simulations of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes; these are significantly more similar to observations than using SST variations alone. Despite the uncertainties, these simulations strongly indicate a discernible anthropogenic effect on the annual mean thermal structure of the atmosphere, the first time this has been shown in the presence of the observed variations of SST and sea‐ice extent.

Received 20 August 1997; accepted 27 October 1997; .

Citation: Folland, C. K., D. M. H. Sexton, D. J. Karoly, C. E. Johnson, D. P. Rowell, and D. E. Parker (1998), Influences of anthropogenic and oceanic forcing on recent climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(3), 353–356, doi:10.1029/97GL03701.

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