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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 103, NO. D22, PAGES 28,963–28,973, 1998

Active-layer thickness in north central Alaska: Systematic sampling, scale, and spatial autocorrelation

F. E. Nelson

K. M. Hinkel

N. I. Shiklomanov

G. R. Mueller

L. L. Miller

D. A. Walker

Abstract

Active-layer thickness was determined in late August 1995 and 1996 at 100 m intervals over seven 1 km² grids in the Arctic Coastal Plain and Arctic Foothills physiographic provinces of northern Alaska. Collectively, the sampled areas integrate the range of regional terrain, soil, and vegetation characteristics in this region. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that patterns of active-layer thickness are governed closely by topographic detail, acting through near-surface hydrology. On the coastal plain, maximum variability occurs at scales involving hundreds of meters, and patterns were similar in the two years. Substantially less spatial structure and interannual correspondence were found within the foothill sites, where high variability occurs over smaller distances. The divergence in patterns of thaw depth between the two provinces reflects the scale of local terrain features, which predetermines the effectiveness of fixed sampling intervals. Exploratory analysis should be performed to ascertain the scale(s) of maximum variability within representative areas prior to selection of sampling intervals and development of long-term monitoring programs.

Received 8 August 1997; accepted 12 February 1998.

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Citation: Nelson, F. E., K. M. Hinkel, N. I. Shiklomanov, G. R. Mueller, L. L. Miller, and D. A. Walker (1998), Active-layer thickness in north central Alaska: Systematic sampling, scale, and spatial autocorrelation, J. Geophys. Res., 103(D22), 28,963–28,973.

Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.