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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Global Change: Instruments and techniques
  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology
  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Instruments and techniques

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 27, NO. 18, PP. 2973-2976, 2000
doi:10.1029/2000GL011611

Correlation approaches to detection

T. M. L. Wigley

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO

B. D. Santer

PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA

K. E. Taylor

PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA

Criticisms leveled at the use of pattern correlation methods in climate‐change detection studies are addressed. We first explain how spatial autocorrelation effects are accounted for. We then show why it is important to consider both pattern similarity and spatial‐mean results in detection studies, and evaluate a mean‐square‐error statistic in this context. We also show that the use of changes in climate, as opposed to absolute climate states, does not lead to spurious trends in the pattern correlation statistic R(t). In doing this, we explain how previous pattern correlation studies account for “time arrow” effects in considering changes relative to an arbitrary reference year. We conclude that criticisms of the pattern correlation method are without substance.

Received 16 March 2000; accepted 26 July 2000; .

Citation: Wigley, T. M. L., B. D. Santer, and K. E. Taylor (2000), Correlation approaches to detection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27(18), 2973–2976, doi:10.1029/2000GL011611.

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