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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Oceanography: General: Arctic and Antarctic oceanography
  • Oceanography: Physical: Ice mechanics and air/sea/ice exchange processes
  • Oceanography: Physical: Turbulence, diffusion, and mixing processes
  • Oceanography: Physical: Upper ocean processes

Abstract

Future of the Arctic sea ice cover: Implications of an Antarctic analog

Douglas G. Martinson

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964

Michael Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105

Recent observations reveal a significant change in the upper ocean characteristics of the eastern Arctic in 1995. The change is manifested through the loss of a near‐surface layer known as the cold halocline layer (CHL). Without the CHL, the Arctic water column looks and behaves like the Antarctic water column. The expected local impact is the appearance of significant winter ocean heat fluxes (15–20 W/m²) and reduction of winter ice growth by 70–80% relative to years in which the CHL was present. Preliminary results suggest a partial recovery of the CHL in the late 1990's, tracking the weakening of the Arctic Oscillation.

Received 22 February 2000; accepted 11 July 2000; .

Citation: Martinson, D. G., and M. Steele (2001), Future of the Arctic sea ice cover: Implications of an Antarctic analog, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(2), 307–310.

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