American Geophysical Union Become an AGU Member
Subscribe to AGU Journals		 AGU Home AGU Publications

Read Full Article    Cited by

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 28, NO. 2, PAGES 307–310, 2001

Future of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Implications of an Antarctic Analog

Douglas G. Martinson

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964


Michael Steele

Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105


Abstract

Recent observations reveal a significant change in the upper ocean characteristics of the eastern Arctic in 1995. The change is manifested through the loss of a near-surface layer known as the cold halocline layer (CHL). Without the CHL, the Arctic water column looks and behaves like the Antarctic water column. The expected local impact is the appearance of significant winter ocean heat fluxes (15 - 20 W/m²) and reduction of winter ice growth by 70 - 80% relative to years in which the CHL was present. Preliminary results suggest a partial recovery of the CHL in the late 1990’s, tracking the weakening of the Arctic Oscillation.

Received 22 February 2000; accepted 11 July 2000.

Read Full Article    Cited by

Citation: Martinson, D. G., and M. Steele (2001), Future of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Implications of an Antarctic Analog, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28(2), 307–310.