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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 28, NO. 8,
PAGES 1535–1538,
2001
Committed Warming and its Implications for Climate Change
Richard T. Wetherald
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory / NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey
Ronald J. Stouffer
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory / NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey
Keith W. Dixon
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory / NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey
Abstract
Time lags between changes in radiative forcing and the resulting simulated climate responses are investigated in a set of
transient climate change experiments. Both surface air temperature (SAT) and soil moisture responses are examined. Results
suggest that if the radiative forcing is held fixed at today’s levels, the global mean SAT will rise an additional 1.0K before
equilibrating. This unrealized warming commitment is larger than the 0.6K warming observed since 1900. The coupled atmosphere-ocean
GCM’s transient SAT response for the year 2000 is estimated to be similar to its equilibration response to 1980 radiative
forcings - a lag of ∼20 years. Both the time lag and the warming commitment are projected to increase in the future, and depend
on the model’s climate sensitivity, oceanic heat uptake, and the forcing scenario. These results imply that much of the warming
due to current greenhouse gas levels is yet to be realized.
Received 16
May
2000;
accepted 18
October
2000.
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Citation: Wetherald, R. T., R. J. Stouffer, and K. W. Dixon
(2001),
Committed Warming and its Implications for Climate Change,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
28(8),
1535–1538.
This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. Published in 2001 by the
American Geophysical Union.
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