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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 28, NO. 1,
PAGES 25–28,
2001
The Moon and El Niño
Randall S. Cerveny
Office of Climatology / Department of Geography, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ USA
John A. Shaffer
Office of Climatology / Department of Geography, Arizona State University, Tempe AZ USA
Abstract
Regional climates around the world display cycles corresponding to the 18.61-year maximum lunar declination (MLD) periodicity.
We suggest that these cycles are created by a relationship between MLD and El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both equatorial
Pacific sea-surface temperature and South Pacific atmospheric pressure significantly correlate with maximum lunar declination.
Low MLDs are associated with warmer equatorial Pacific seasurface temperatures and negative values of the Southern Oscillation
Index. A lunar-influenced change in the Pacific gyre circulation presents a viable physical mechanism for explaining these
relationships. We suggest that the gyre is enhanced by tidal forces under high MLDs, inducing coldwater advection into the
equatorial region but is restricted by the weak tidal forcing of low MLDs thereby favoring El Niño episodes. An astronomical
model utilizing this relationship produces a forecast of increased non-El Niño (either La Niña or neutral) activity for the
early part of this decade.
Received 26
July
2000;
accepted 13
October
2000.
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Citation: Cerveny, R. S., and J. A. Shaffer
(2001),
The Moon and El Niño,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
28(1),
25–28.
Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.
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