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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 10, 1466, doi:10.1029/2001GL014069, 2002

Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Carsten Eden

Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada


Richard J. Greatbatch

Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada


Jian Lu

Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada


Abstract

For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the North Atlantic is currently in such a predictable state, a simple surrogate model yields a prediction that the NAO index is more likely to be positive than negative for the next couple of years, followed by several years in which the NAO index is more likely to be negative.

Published 28 May 2002.

Index Terms: 4215 Oceanography: General: Climate and interannual variability (3309); 4263 Oceanography: General: Ocean prediction; 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312); 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling.

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Citation: Eden, C., R. J. Greatbatch, and J. Lu (2002), Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 1466, doi:10.1029/2001GL014069.