Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

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Read Full Article (file size: 636099 bytes) Cited by REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, VOL. 40, NO. 1, 1003, doi:10.1029/2000RG000092, 2002 Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series M. Ghil Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. M. R. Allen Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, England. M. D. Dettinger U.S. Geological Survey, San Diego, California, USA. K. Ide Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. D. Kondrashov Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. M. E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA. A. W. Robertson Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. A. Saunders Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. Y. Tian Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. F. Varadi Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA. P. Yiou Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. Abstract The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal-to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review. Published 13 September 2002. Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 3220 Mathematical Geophysics: Nonlinear dynamics; 4522 Oceanography: Physical: El Nino; 9820 General or Miscellaneous: Techniques applicable in three or more fields. Read Full Article (file size: 636099 bytes) Cited by Citation: Ghil, M., et al. (2002), Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series, Rev. Geophys., 40(1), 1003, doi:10.1029/2000RG000092. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

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