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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 18, 1891, doi:10.1029/2001GL014339, 2002

Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary

Noah Knowles

Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA


Daniel R. Cayan

Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Water Resources Division, U.S. Geological Survey, USA


Abstract

California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Projected temperature anomalies from a global climate model are used to drive a combined model of watershed hydrology and estuarine dynamics. By 2090, a projected temperature increase of 2.1°C results in a loss of about half of the average April snowpack storage, with greatest losses in the northern headwaters. Consequently, spring runoff is reduced by 5.6 km3 (∼20% of historical annual runoff), with associated increases in winter flood peaks. The smaller spring flows yield spring/summer salinity increases of up to 9 psu, with larger increases in wet years.

Published 28 September 2002.

Index Terms: 3210 Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling; 1833 Hydrology: Hydroclimatology; 1655 Global Change: Water cycles (1836); 1860 Hydrology: Runoff and streamflow; 4235 Oceanography: General: Estuarine processes.

Subscriber Access to Full Article (Nonsubscribers may purchase for $9.00, Includes print PDF, file size: 173750 bytes)

Citation: Knowles, N., and D. R. Cayan (2002), Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(18), 1891, doi:10.1029/2001GL014339.