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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 29, NO. 11,
1514,
doi:10.1029/2001GL014431,
2002
Climate responses to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide for a climatically vulnerable region
Mark A. Snyder
Department of Earth Sciences,
University of California,
Santa Cruz,
California,
USA
Jason L. Bell
Department of Earth Sciences,
University of California,
Santa Cruz,
California,
USA
Lisa C. Sloan
Department of Earth Sciences,
University of California,
Santa Cruz,
California,
USA
Philip B. Duffy
Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling Group,
Lawrence Livermore National Lab,
California,
USA
Balasubramanian Govindasamy
Climate and Carbon Cycle Modeling Group,
Lawrence Livermore National Lab,
California,
USA
Abstract
Global modeling studies of future climate change predict large scale climatic responses to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2). While there have been several regional climate modeling studies that produced results at spatial and temporal scales relevant
for climate change impact analysis, few have employed statistical significance testing of results. In a sensitivity study
that focused on mean climate states, we use a regional climate model to generate ensembles of climate scenarios under atmospheric
conditions of 280 and 560 ppm CO2, for a domain centered over California. We find statistically significant responses by mean annual and monthly temperature,
precipitation, and snow to CO2 doubling. Relative to the 280 ppm results, 560 ppm results show temperature increasing everywhere in the region annually
(up to 3.8°C), and in every month, with the greatest monthly surface warming at high elevations. Snow accumulation decreased
everywhere, and precipitation increased in northern regions by up to 23%, on a mean annual basis.
Published 7
June
2002.
Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 9350 Information Related to Geographic Region: North America; 1854 Hydrology: Precipitation (3354); 1699 Global Change: General or miscellaneous.
Read Full Article (file size: 313726 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Snyder, M. A., J. L. Bell, L. C. Sloan, P. B. Duffy, and B. Govindasamy
(2002),
Climate responses to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide for a climatically vulnerable region,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
29(11),
1514,
doi:10.1029/2001GL014431.
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.
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