Abstract
Long-term trends in interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind structure during the twentieth century
Long-term trends in interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind structure during the twentieth century
I. G. Richardson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt,
Maryland,
USA
E. W. Cliver
Air Force Research Laboratory,
Hanscom Air Force Base,
Bedford,
Massachusetts,
USA
H. V. Cane
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt,
Maryland,
USA
Lockwood et al. [1999]
have recently reported a ∼ 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between
1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than
average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964–1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF
strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength,
over the last five solar cycles (19–23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant
since ∼ 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic aa index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME)
rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change
in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account
completely for the increase in aa. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a
background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than
its modern counterpart.
Published 17
October
2002.
Citation: Richardson, I. G., E. W. Cliver, and H. V. Cane
(2002),
Long-term trends in interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind structure during the twentieth century,
J. Geophys. Res.,
107(A10),
1304,
doi:10.1029/2001JA000507.