Abstract
Influence of transport uncertainty on annual mean and seasonal inversions of atmospheric CO2 data
Laboratoire de Biogéochimie isotopique, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, L'orme des merisiers, Gif sur Yvette, France
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, L'orme des merisiers, Gif sur Yvette, France
Inversion methods are often used to estimate surface CO2 fluxes from atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements, given an atmospheric transport model to relate the two. The published estimates disagree strongly
on the location of the main sources and sinks, however. Are these differences due to the different time spans considered,
or are they artifacts of the method and data used? Here we assess the uncertainty in such estimates due to the choice of time
discretization of the measurements and fluxes, the spatial resolution of the fluxes, and the transport model. A suite of 27
Bayesian least squares inversions has been run, given by varying the number of flux regions solved for (7, 12, and 17), the
time discretization (annual/annual, annual/monthly, and monthly/monthly for the fluxes/data), and the transport model (TM2,
TM3, and GCTM), while holding all other inversion details constant. The estimated fluxes from this ensemble of inversions
for the land + ocean sum are stable over large zonal bands, but the spread in the results increases when considering the longitudinal
flux distribution inside these bands. On average for 1990–1994 the inversions place a large CO2 uptake north of 30°N (3.2 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1), mostly over the land regions, with more in Eurasia than North America. The ocean fluxes are generally smaller than given
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Published 8 October 2002.
Citation: (2002), Influence of transport uncertainty on annual mean and seasonal inversions of atmospheric CO2 data, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D19), 4385, doi:10.1029/2001JD000857.
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