Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations

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Read Full Article (file size: 2557540 bytes) Cited by JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 107, NO. D18, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143, 2002 Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations J. Hansen NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA M. Sato NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA L. Nazarenko NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA R. Ruedy NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA SGT Incorporated, New York, New York, USA A. Lacis NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA D. Koch NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA I. Tegen Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany T. Hall NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA D. Shindell NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA B. Santer Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA P. Stone Center for Meteorology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA T. Novakov Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA L. Thomason NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, USA R. Wang School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA Y. Wang Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA D. Jacob Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA S. Hollandsworth NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA L. Bishop Honeywell International, Buffalo, New York, USA J. Logan Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA A. Thompson NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA R. Stolarski NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA J. Lean E. O. Hulbert Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D. C., USA R. Willson Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA S. Levitus National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA J. Antonov National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA N. Rayner Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Bracknell, Berkshire, U.K. D. Parker Meteorological Office Hadley Centre, Bracknell, Berkshire, U.K. J. Christy Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama, USA Abstract We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. Our illustrations focus on the period 1951–2050, but we make the full data sets available for those forcings for which we have earlier data. We illustrate the global response to these forcings for the SI2000 model with specified sea surface temperature and with a simple Q-flux ocean, thus helping to characterize the efficacy of each forcing. The model yields good agreement with observed global temperature change and heat storage in the ocean. This agreement does not yield an improved assessment of climate sensitivity or a confirmation of the net climate forcing because of possible compensations with opposite changes of these quantities. Nevertheless, the results imply that observed global temperature change during the past 50 years is primarily a response to radiative forcings. It is also inferred that the planet is now out of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W/m² and that additional global warming of about 0.5°C is already “in the pipeline.” Published 20 September 2002. Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability. Read Full Article (file size: 2557540 bytes) Cited by Citation: Hansen, J., et al. (2002), Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D18), 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143. Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.

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