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JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 107, NO. D18,
4347,
doi:10.1029/2001JD001143,
2002
Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations
J. Hansen
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA
M. Sato
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA Center for Climate Systems Research,
Columbia University,
New York,
New York,
USA
L. Nazarenko
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA Center for Climate Systems Research,
Columbia University,
New York,
New York,
USA
R. Ruedy
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA
SGT Incorporated,
New York,
New York,
USA
A. Lacis
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA
D. Koch
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA Department of Geology,
Yale University,
New Haven,
Connecticut,
USA
I. Tegen
Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry,
Jena,
Germany
T. Hall
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics,
Columbia University,
New York,
New York,
USA
D. Shindell
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,
New York,
New York,
USA
B. Santer
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,
Livermore,
California,
USA
P. Stone
Center for Meteorology,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge,
Massachusetts,
USA
T. Novakov
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
Berkeley,
California,
USA
L. Thomason
NASA Langley Research Center,
Hampton,
Virginia,
USA
R. Wang
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences,
Georgia Institute of Technology,
Atlanta,
Georgia,
USA
Y. Wang
Department of Environmental Sciences,
Rutgers University,
New Brunswick,
New Jersey,
USA
D. Jacob
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,
Harvard University,
Cambridge,
Massachusetts,
USA
S. Hollandsworth
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt,
Maryland,
USA
L. Bishop
Honeywell International,
Buffalo,
New York,
USA
J. Logan
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,
Harvard University,
Cambridge,
Massachusetts,
USA
A. Thompson
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt,
Maryland,
USA
R. Stolarski
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,
Greenbelt,
Maryland,
USA
J. Lean
E. O. Hulbert Center for Space Research,
Naval Research Laboratory,
Washington,
D. C.,
USA
R. Willson
Center for Climate Systems Research,
Columbia University,
New York,
New York,
USA
S. Levitus
National Oceanographic Data Center,
NOAA,
Silver Spring,
Maryland,
USA
J. Antonov
National Oceanographic Data Center,
NOAA,
Silver Spring,
Maryland,
USA
N. Rayner
Meteorological Office Hadley Centre,
Bracknell, Berkshire,
U.K.
D. Parker
Meteorological Office Hadley Centre,
Bracknell, Berkshire,
U.K.
J. Christy
Earth System Science Center,
University of Alabama,
Huntsville,
Alabama,
USA
Abstract
We define the radiative forcings used in climate simulations with the SI2000 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(GISS) global climate model. These include temporal variations of well-mixed greenhouse gases, stratospheric aerosols, solar
irradiance, ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and tropospheric aerosols. Our illustrations focus on the period 1951–2050,
but we make the full data sets available for those forcings for which we have earlier data. We illustrate the global response
to these forcings for the SI2000 model with specified sea surface temperature and with a simple Q-flux ocean, thus helping to characterize the efficacy of each forcing. The model yields good agreement with observed global
temperature change and heat storage in the ocean. This agreement does not yield an improved assessment of climate sensitivity
or a confirmation of the net climate forcing because of possible compensations with opposite changes of these quantities.
Nevertheless, the results imply that observed global temperature change during the past 50 years is primarily a response to
radiative forcings. It is also inferred that the planet is now out of radiation balance by 0.5 to 1 W/m2 and that additional global warming of about 0.5°C is already “in the pipeline.”
Published 20
September
2002.
Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability.
Read Full Article (file size: 2557540 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Hansen, J., et al.
(2002),
Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations,
J. Geophys. Res.,
107(D18),
4347,
doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
Copyright 2002 by the American Geophysical Union.
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