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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Evolution of the atmosphere
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composition and chemistry
  • Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pressure, density, and temperature

Abstract

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, 1920, 4 PP., 2002
doi:10.1029/2002GL015717

Assessing the robustness of zonal mean climate change detection

Peter W. Thorne

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Phil D. Jones

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Tim J. Osborn

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Trevor D. Davies

Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Simon F. B. Tett

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Bracknell, UK

David E. Parker

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Bracknell, UK

Peter A. Stott

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Bracknell, UK

Gareth S. Jones

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met. Office, Bracknell, UK

Myles R. Allen

Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

We assess the robustness of previous optimal detection and attribution studies considering zonal-mean temperatures. Principal results, which have consistently pointed towards a demonstrable anthropogenic influence on recently observed upper air temperatures, are confirmed. Importantly our detection results are not critically dependent on the inclusion of stratospheric as well as tropospheric temperatures. We find that detection is dependent on input field pre-processing choices, and on the choice of detection algorithm. There are a number of cases where either no signals are detected, or results fail a consistency test.

Published 8 October 2002.

Citation: Thorne, P. W., P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, T. D. Davies, S. F. B. Tett, D. E. Parker, P. A. Stott, G. S. Jones, and M. R. Allen (2002), Assessing the robustness of zonal mean climate change detection, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(19), 1920, doi:10.1029/2002GL015717.

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