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GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 17, NO. 2, 1047, doi:10.1029/2001GB001842, 2003

Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons

Haroon S. Kheshgi

Corporate Strategic Research, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, New Jersey, USA


Atul K. Jain

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois, USA


Abstract

The range of responses of alternate detailed models for the ocean and biosphere components of the global carbon cycle, cataloged in model intercomparison studies, are simulated by a reduced form Earth system model employing a range of model parameters. The reduced form model, parameterized in this way, allows the integration of these components of the carbon cycle with an energy balance climate model with a prescribed range of climate sensitivity. We use this model to construct ranges of: (1) past carbon budgets given past CO2 concentrations, fossil carbon emissions, and temperature records, (2) future CO2 concentrations and temperature for given emission scenarios, and (3) CO2 emissions and temperature for given trajectories of future CO2 concentrations leading to constant levels within the next several centuries. Carbon cycle is an additional contributor to uncertainty in climate projections that is calculated to expand the range of projected global temperature beyond that reported in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment.

Received 28 November 2001; accepted 6 February 2003; published 15 May 2003.

Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 4806 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Carbon cycling.

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Citation: Kheshgi, H. S., and A. K. Jain (2003), Projecting future climate change: Implications of carbon cycle model intercomparisons, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 17(2), 1047, doi:10.1029/2001GB001842.