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Fresh air in the 21st century?
Department of Earth System Science, UC Irvine, California, USA
Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Joint Research Centre, Environment Institute, Ispra, Italy
The Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom
The Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
Dept of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard U., Cambridge, Maryland, USA
Dept of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard U., Cambridge, Maryland, USA
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium
Dipartimento di Fisica, U.L'Aquila, Coppito, L'Aquila, Italy
Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom
Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom
Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom
Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt, The Netherlands
Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan
Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of −4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere.
Published 31 January 2003.
Citation: (2003), Fresh air in the 21st century?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(2), 1100, doi:10.1029/2002GL016285.
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