Fresh air in the 21st century?

	Become an AGU Member Subscribe to AGU Journals



Read Full Article (file size: 277189 bytes) Cited by GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 2, 1100, doi:10.1029/2002GL016285, 2003 Fresh air in the 21st century? Michael Prather Department of Earth System Science, UC Irvine, California, USA Michael Gauss Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Terje Berntsen Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Ivar Isaksen Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Jostein Sundet Institutt for Geofysikk, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway Isabelle Bey Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland Guy Brasseur Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Frank Dentener Joint Research Centre, Environment Institute, Ispra, Italy Richard Derwent The Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom David Stevenson The Hadley Centre, UK Met Office, Bracknell, United Kingdom Lee Grenfell Didier Hauglustaine Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France Larry Horowitz Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Daniel Jacob Dept of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard U., Cambridge, Maryland, USA Loretta Mickley Dept of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Harvard U., Cambridge, Maryland, USA Mark Lawrence Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Rolf von Kuhlmann Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany Jean-Francois Muller Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, Brussels, Belgium Giovanni Pitari Dipartimento di Fisica, U.L'Aquila, Coppito, L'Aquila, Italy Helen Rogers Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom Matthew Johnson Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom John Pyle Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom Kathy Law Centre for Atmos. Sci., Cambridge U., Cambridge, United Kingdom Michiel van Weele Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt, The Netherlands Oliver Wild Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan Abstract Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of −4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere. Published 31 January 2003. Index Terms: 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution—urban and regional (0305); 0365 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Troposphere—composition and chemistry; 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325). Read Full Article (file size: 277189 bytes) Cited by Citation: Prather, M., et al. (2003), Fresh air in the 21st century?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(2), 1100, doi:10.1029/2002GL016285. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Abstract