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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 7, 1404, doi:10.1029/2002GL016295, 2003

Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?

Barry D. Keim

Southern Regional Climate Center, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA


Adam M. Wilson

Climate Change Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA


Cameron P. Wake

Climate Change Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA


Thomas G. Huntington

United States Geological Survey, Augusta, Maine, USA


Abstract

The United States (U.S.) Climate Division data set is commonly used in applied climatic studies in the United States. The divisional averages are calculated by including all available stations within a division at any given time. The averages are therefore vulnerable to shifts in average station location or elevation over time, which may introduce spurious trends within these data. This paper examines temperature trends within the 15 climate divisions of New England, comparing the NCDC's U.S. Divisional Data to the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) data. Correlation and multiple regression revealed that shifts in latitude, longitude, and elevation have affected the quality of the NCDC divisional data with respect to the USHCN. As a result, there may be issues with regard to their use in decadal- to century-scale climate change studies.

Published 11 April 2003.

Index Terms: 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1803 Hydrology: Anthropogenic effects; 6620 Public Issues: Science policy; 6309 Policy Sciences: Decision making under uncertainty.

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Citation: Keim, B. D., A. M. Wilson, C. P. Wake, and T. G. Huntington (2003), Are there spurious temperature trends in the United States Climate Division database?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(7), 1404, doi:10.1029/2002GL016295.