|
Read Full Article (file size: 5042610 bytes) Cited by
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH,
VOL. 108, NO. D19,
8171,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002559,
2003
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections
J. O. Kaplan
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
N. H. Bigelow
Alaska Quaternary Center, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
I. C. Prentice
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
S. P. Harrison
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Dynamic Paleoclimatology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
P. J. Bartlein
Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA
T. R. Christensen
Climate Impacts Group, Department of Ecology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
W. Cramer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
N. V. Matveyeva
Department of Vegetation of the Far North, Komarov Botanical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
A. D. McGuire
U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
D. F. Murray
University of Alaska Museum, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
V. Y. Razzhivin
Department of Vegetation of the Far North, Komarov Botanical Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
B. Smith
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Climate Impacts Group, Department of Ecology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
D. A. Walker
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
P. M. Anderson
Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
A. A. Andreev
Alfred Wegner Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Forschungsstelle Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
L. B. Brubaker
College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
M. E. Edwards
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA Department of Geography, Norges Teknisk-Naturvitenskapelige Universitet, Trondheim, Norway
A. V. Lozhkin
Northeast Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia
Abstract
Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially
of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra
was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit
and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types
embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum
(LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently
known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the
major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra
(although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations
reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit
in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for
larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated
physiological effects of the CO2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.
Received 23
May
2002;
accepted 29
January
2003;
published 8
October
2003.
Index Terms: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 1851 Hydrology: Plant ecology.
Read Full Article (file size: 5042610 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Kaplan, J. O., et al.
(2003),
Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections,
J. Geophys. Res.,
108(D19),
8171,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002559.
Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.
|