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EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, VOL. 84, NO. 51, doi:10.1029/2003EO510001, 2003

Ocean Thermal Structure Monitoring Could Aid in the Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclones

Gustavo J. Goni

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA Miami, Florida, USA


Joaquin A. Trinanes

Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA


Abstract

Accurate prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is highly important for planning the evacuation of densely populated coastal areas and for impact assessment. Though forecasts of Atlantic hurricane tracks have improved greatly during recent years, large errors in intensity forecasts still remain. Dynamical and statistical models are currently being used, with a different range of success, to predict the location of tropical cyclone intensity changes. Statistical prediction models attempt to quantify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensification and variables that can be estimated or observed in real time. Some examples of these variables, referred to as predictors, are initial maximum wind speed, wind shear, latitude of the tropical cyclones, and sea surface temperature (SST). The subsurface ocean thermal structure is also being considered as a predictor among several other thermodynamic variables that could further enhance our knowledge of the role of the ocean in tropical cyclone intensification. Results from a methodology for estimating the oceanic tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are now being used to aid in the investigation of intensity changes in tropical cyclones, and to improve current models for operational prediction. Global estimates of this parameter are posted daily in www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data (Figure 1).

Index Terms: 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312); 3339 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504); 4572 Oceanography: Physical: Upper ocean processes.

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Citation: Goni, G. J., and J. A. Trinanes (2003), Ocean Thermal Structure Monitoring Could Aid in the Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclones, Eos Trans. AGU, 84(51), doi:10.1029/2003EO510001.