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EOS, TRANSACTIONS AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION,
VOL. 84, NO. 51,
doi:10.1029/2003EO510001,
2003
Ocean Thermal Structure Monitoring Could Aid in the Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclones
Gustavo J. Goni
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, NOAA Miami, Florida, USA
Joaquin A. Trinanes
Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
Abstract
Accurate prediction of the track and intensity of tropical cyclones is highly important for planning the evacuation of densely
populated coastal areas and for impact assessment. Though forecasts of Atlantic hurricane tracks have improved greatly during
recent years, large errors in intensity forecasts still remain. Dynamical and statistical models are currently being used,
with a different range of success, to predict the location of tropical cyclone intensity changes. Statistical prediction models
attempt to quantify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensification and variables that can be estimated or observed
in real time. Some examples of these variables, referred to as predictors, are initial maximum wind speed, wind shear, latitude
of the tropical cyclones, and sea surface temperature (SST). The subsurface ocean thermal structure is also being considered
as a predictor among several other thermodynamic variables that could further enhance our knowledge of the role of the ocean
in tropical cyclone intensification. Results from a methodology for estimating the oceanic tropical cyclone heat potential
(TCHP) are now being used to aid in the investigation of intensity changes in tropical cyclones, and to improve current models
for operational prediction. Global estimates of this parameter are posted daily in www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data (Figure
1).
Index Terms: 4504 Oceanography: Physical: Air/sea interactions (0312); 3339 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504); 4572 Oceanography: Physical: Upper ocean processes.
Print Version (1067149 bytes)
Citation: Goni, G. J., and J. A. Trinanes
(2003),
Ocean Thermal Structure Monitoring Could Aid in the Intensity Forecast of Tropical Cyclones,
Eos Trans. AGU,
84(51),
doi:10.1029/2003EO510001.
Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.
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