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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 10, 1510, doi:10.1029/2003GL017115, 2003

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock

Stefan Rahmstorf

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany


Abstract

Many paleoclimatic data reveal a ∼1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.

Received 12 February 2003; accepted 10 April 2003; published 21 May 2003.

Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 3344 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Paleoclimatology; 1650 Global Change: Solar variability; 3367 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Theoretical modeling; 1635 Global Change: Oceans (4203).

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Citation: Rahmstorf, S. (2003), Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(10), 1510, doi:10.1029/2003GL017115.