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AGU: Geophysical Research Letters

 

Index Terms

  • Global Change: Climate dynamics
  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Paleoclimatology
  • Global Change: Solar variability
  • Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Theoretical modeling
  • Global Change: Oceans

Abstract

Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock

Stefan Rahmstorf

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Many paleoclimatic data reveal a ∼1,500 year cyclicity of unknown origin. A crucial question is how stable and regular this cycle is. An analysis of the GISP2 ice core record from Greenland reveals that abrupt climate events appear to be paced by a 1,470-year cycle with a period that is probably stable to within a few percent; with 95% confidence the period is maintained to better than 12% over at least 23 cycles. This highly precise clock points to an origin outside the Earth system; oscillatory modes within the Earth system can be expected to be far more irregular in period.

Received 12 February 2003; accepted 10 April 2003; published 21 May 2003.

Citation: Rahmstorf, S. (2003), Timing of abrupt climate change: A precise clock, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(10), 1510, doi:10.1029/2003GL017115.

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