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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 12, 1629, doi:10.1029/2003GL017130, 2003

Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method

F. Giorgi

Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy


L. O. Mearns

NCAR, Boulder, USA


Abstract

We present an extension of the Reliability Ensemble Averaging, or REA, method [ Giorgi and Mearns, 2002 ] to calculate the probability of regional climate change exceeding given thresholds based on ensembles of different model simulations. The method is applied to a recent set of transient experiments for the A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios with 9 different atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Probabilities of surface air temperature and precipitation change are calculated for 10 regions of subcontinental scale spanning a range of latitudes and climatic settings. The results obtained from the REA method are compared with those obtained with a simpler but conceptually similar approach [ Räisänen and Palmer, 2001 ]. It is shown that the REA method can provide a simple and flexible tool to estimate probabilities of regional climate change from ensembles of model simulations for use in risk and cost assessment studies.

Received 14 February 2003; accepted 8 May 2003; published 24 June 2003.

Index Terms: 1610 Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325); 1803 Hydrology: Anthropogenic effects; 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 3337 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical modeling and data assimilation; 3354 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854).

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Citation: Giorgi, F., and L. O. Mearns (2003), Probability of regional climate change based on the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) method, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12), 1629, doi:10.1029/2003GL017130.