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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 30, NO. 14, 1769, doi:10.1029/2003GL017666, 2003

Long time memory in global warming simulations

Richard Blender

Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany


Klaus Fraedrich

Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany


Abstract

Global power law scaling of near surface temperature spectra is determined in two scenario simulations and in NCEP re-analyses. The simulations use the coupled atmosphere-ocean models HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC with greenhouse gas increase according to scenario IS92a in 1860–2099. Observations show a low-frequency power spectrum S(f) ∼ 1/f over the oceans, a white spectrum in the inner continents, and S(f) ∼ f −0.3 in the coastal areas. The global distribution of the power law exponents is reproduced in the two simulations even in the 21st century with a pronounced temperature increase.

Received 2 May 2003; accepted 20 June 2003; published 29 July 2003.

Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 3319 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General circulation; 3339 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504).

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Citation: Blender, R., and K. Fraedrich (2003), Long time memory in global warming simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(14), 1769, doi:10.1029/2003GL017666.