Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics

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Read Full Article (file size: 403273 bytes) Cited by GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970, 2004 Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics K. Matsumoto Geological Survey of Japan, Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan J. L. Sarmiento Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA R. M. Key Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA O. Aumont Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France J. L. Bullister Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, USA K. Caldeira Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA J.-M. Campin University of Liege, Liege, Belgium S. C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA H. Drange Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway J.-C. Dutay Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France M. Follows Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA Y. Gao Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway A. Gnanadesikan NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA N. Gruber Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA A. Ishida Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan F. Joos Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland K. Lindsay National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA E. Maier-Reimer Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany J. C. Marshall Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA R. J. Matear CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia P. Monfray Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France A. Mouchet University of Liege, Liege, Belgium R. Najjar Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA G.-K. Plattner Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA R. Schlitzer Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany R. Slater Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA P. S. Swathi CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India I. J. Totterdell Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK M.-F. Weirig Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany Y. Yamanaka Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan A. Yool Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK J. C. Orr Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France Abstract New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model. Received 25 December 2003; accepted 5 March 2004; published 2 April 2004. Index Terms: 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4805 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Biogeochemical cycles (1615); 4842 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Modeling; 4599 Oceanography: Physical: General or miscellaneous. Read Full Article (file size: 403273 bytes) Cited by Citation: Matsumoto, K., et al. (2004), Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

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