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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970, 2004

Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics

K. Matsumoto

Geological Survey of Japan, Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan


J. L. Sarmiento

Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


R. M. Key

Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


O. Aumont

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


J. L. Bullister

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, USA


K. Caldeira

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USA


J.-M. Campin

University of Liege, Liege, Belgium


S. C. Doney

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA


H. Drange

Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway


J.-C. Dutay

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


M. Follows

Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA


Y. Gao

Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, Norway


A. Gnanadesikan

NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


N. Gruber

Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA


A. Ishida

Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan


F. Joos

Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland


K. Lindsay

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA


E. Maier-Reimer

Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany


J. C. Marshall

Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA


R. J. Matear

CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia


P. Monfray

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


A. Mouchet

University of Liege, Liege, Belgium


R. Najjar

Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA


G.-K. Plattner

Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA


R. Schlitzer

Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany


R. Slater

Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA


P. S. Swathi

CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India


I. J. Totterdell

Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK


M.-F. Weirig

Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany


Y. Yamanaka

Frontier Research System for Global Change, Yokohama, Japan


A. Yool

Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK


J. C. Orr

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unite Mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France


Abstract

New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.

Received 25 December 2003; accepted 5 March 2004; published 2 April 2004.

Index Terms: 4255 Oceanography: General: Numerical modeling; 4805 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Biogeochemical cycles (1615); 4842 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Modeling; 4599 Oceanography: Physical: General or miscellaneous.


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Citation: Matsumoto, K., et al. (2004), Evaluation of ocean carbon cycle models with data-based metrics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970.