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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,
VOL. 31,
L02202,
doi:10.1029/2003GL018857,
2004
The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations
Martin Beniston
Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
Abstract
The 2003 heat wave that affected much of Europe from June to September bears a close resemblance to what many regional climate
models are projecting for summers in the latter part of the 21st century. Model results suggest that under enhanced atmospheric
greenhouse-gas concentrations, summer temperatures are likely to increase by over 4°C on average, with a corresponding increase
in the frequency of severe heat waves. Statistical features of the 2003 heat wave for the Swiss site of Basel are investigated
and compared to both past, 20th century events and possible future extreme temperatures based on model simulations of climatic
change. For many purposes, the 2003 event can be used as an analog of future summers in coming decades in climate impacts
and policy studies.
Received 17
October
2003;
accepted 4
December
2003;
published 16
January
2004.
Index Terms: 1620 Global Change: Climate dynamics (3309); 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 3367 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Theoretical modeling.
Read Full Article (file size: 235001 bytes) Cited by
Citation: Beniston, M.
(2004),
The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,
31,
L02202,
doi:10.1029/2003GL018857.
Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.
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